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"Why the internationalization of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is a priority for Armenia"

2022-09-26T16:35:50.307Z


FIGAROVOX/TRIBUNE - On the strategic level, the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh are counting on the internationalization of the conflict with Azerbaijan to get out of the crisis, analyze Barah Mikaïl and Ilya Roubanis. But this minority is neither a priority for Russia nor for the European Union...


Former researcher at IRIS and former member of the Foundation for International Relations and External Dialogue, Barah Mikaïl is a specialist in the Middle East and North Africa, and director of the Observatory of Contemporary Crises at the university. Saint Louis of Madrid.

Ilya Roubanis is a political scientist and doctor in international relations (European University Institute in Florence).

The return of clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan is there to remind us how quick Westerners can be to errors of judgment which only delay naturally explosive deadlines.

If the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh seemed to have relatively "calmed down" since the beginning of 2022, on the ground, tensions have never really ceased, remaining at the mercy of a new provocation.

Thus on August 3, 2022, for example, when Azeri troops launched an attack at the level of the Lachin corridor, a piece of territory uniting Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, and killed three Armenian soldiers.

The area in question was overseen by Russian peacekeeping forces which, again, failed to prevent escalation.

But, beyond the Russian limitations, we must face the facts and note that neither Nagorno-Karabakh, nor the Armenian minority of Nagorno-Karabakh, is a priority either for Russia or even for European Union and its members.

A brief historical reminder is in order.

In the fall of 2020, Azerbaijani forces launched a military campaign that allowed Baku to take control of seven regions over Nagorno-Karabakh, including the cities of Shushi and Hadrut.

For the Armenians, who spared no effort to try to have the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh recognized, this was an existential moment.

The Azeris will take advantage militarily: their progress will not stop until November 2020, with the intervention of Russia, and its mediation in favor of a nine-point agreement.

But this has the value of "capitulation" from the point of view of the Armenians.

The text indeed asks Yerevan to recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and to renounce all rights over Nagorno-Karabakh.

This request leads, logically, to the demand by the Azeris for the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the region.

This has not been verified to date, although recently the Secretary General of the Armenian Security Council, Armen Grigoryan, recalled that such a withdrawal would end in September 2022. In the meantime, it is the Russians who continue to supervise the Lachin corridor, where Armenian troops also continue to be deployed.

Beyond appearances, Armenia now accepts that Nagorno-Karabakh is a territory placed under Azerbaijani sovereignty: Yerevan indeed wants to avoid the outbreak of a new war which would threaten its own territory.

Barah Mikail and Ilya Roubanis

Officially, if the Armenian troops remain in Lachin, it is because they want to ensure that the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh can be supplied with essential consumer products, but also that they can also leave the region. safely as needed.

From Baku's point of view, this is unacceptable.

In the regions it has captured, Azerbaijan wants to bring back the demographic advantage in its favour, and it sees in Lachin a strategic point.

Baku and Yerevan had indeed agreed on the construction of a new bridge which would connect Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia: but Azerbaijan refuses to condition its sovereignty on questions relating to the essential needs of the civilian population Armenian.

Basically, the main problem of Nagorno-Karabakh lies in its hybrid nature: it is neither sufficiently international nor completely bilateral.

Beyond appearances, Armenia now accepts that Nagorno-Karabakh is a territory placed under Azerbaijani sovereignty: Yerevan indeed wants to avoid the outbreak of a new war which would threaten its own territory.

The fighting that resumed on September 9, 2022 claimed dozens of victims, a situation Yerevan would have done well without.

From his point of view, the security of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh only comes out even more precarious.

For its part, Russia also wishes to avoid any questioning of the territorial sovereignty of Azerbaijan.

The Armenians are without illusions on the fact that they must accept the scenario of an integration of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh for the benefit of Azerbaijan.

The Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, as well as the Armenian Foreign Minister, Ararat Mirzoyan, have moreover declared that the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh was built according to them on legal, rather than territorial bases.

Basically, this means that Yerevan no longer sees the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh as a sovereign people, but rather as a minority that needs to see its rights protected both by the UN and by Azerbaijan.

Armenia is faced with a mission of the greatest difficulty: to guarantee the security of the Armenian minority in Nagorno-Karabakh, while avoiding taking responsibility for the outbreak of a new war.

Barah Mikail and Ilya Roubanis

This is why the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh are counting on the internationalization of this dispute.

However, until November 2020, negotiations relating to this conflict were concentrated at the level of the Minsk group, set up in 1992 by the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE).

It is also worth recalling that the Russian mandate on Nagorno-Karabakh itself draws its legitimacy from the Tirana declaration (CSCE), and not from UN resolutions.

International law is therefore not always a compass.

Following Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, and more recently with the invasion of Ukraine, relations between the West and Russia have passed an apparent tipping point.

But, as long as the Russians and the West play the confrontation in Ukraine, no diplomatic framework will be conducive to cooperation between the two parties.

One can even wonder to what extent it would be realistic to return to the framework instituted by Minsk.

For its part, the European Union has no alternative to Minsk.

On April 6, 2022, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev met in Brussels and instructed their foreign ministers to start preparatory work on peace talks.

The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, "supervised" this meeting: he could hardly do more.

However, the discussion put into perspective elements far from trivial: the Azeris indeed pose as a precondition to any continuation of the discussions the adhesion of Armenia to the principles relating to the agreement on the cease-fire of November 2020, a way for them to have their territorial integrity recognized.

In other words, Armenia cannot impose negotiations around Nagorno-Karabakh.

As for the European Union, it will not commit anything at this level.

Thus, Armenia now finds itself faced with a mission of the greatest difficulty: it must guarantee the security of the Armenian minority in Nagorno-Karabakh, while doing everything to avoid taking responsibility for the outbreak of a new war.

Could we count on France to find a way out of the situation?

President Emmanuel Macron could order the idea of ​​​​deploying peacekeeping forces or military observers in Nagorno-Karabakh, despite the reluctance of the Quai d'Orsay.

But this scenario would have the constraint of ordering that Paris and Moscow work together on the question.

However, this scenario is excluded in the current state of the facts.

What is more, even if it would benefit from the support of Paris for its demands, Yerevan cannot take the risk of alienating Russia.

This is also what explains why Armenia continues to put the package on diplomacy, and to use tactical postures.

She had thus abstained during the vote of the UN General Assembly on the question of the Russian invasion of Ukraine;

she did the same regarding the vote on the suspension of Russia from the UN Human Rights Council.

But this above all reflects the diplomatic weakness of the Armenians.

By claiming that a balance in relations between the West and the East is possible, Yerevan seeks above all to attract sympathy.

Because what Armenia fears above all is its definitive and irrevocable exclusion from the negotiating table on Nagorno-Karabakh.

In other words, Yerevan lives the fear of suffering a fate similar to that of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, who have neither the European Union, nor Russia, nor even Armenia to protect them.

Source: lefigaro

All news articles on 2022-09-26

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