New turn to the right in Europe.
The victory of Giorgia Meloni and his far-right party in Italy threatens to shake the balance of power in the EU.
In Brussels they watch with concern the arrival of a very possible eurosceptic and ultra-nationalist prime minister.
In public, the mantra is the same: the European Commission will work with any government that comes out of the polls.
In private, community sources are concerned that the landing of the Executive that leaves the coalition formed by Brothers of Italy, the League of the eurosceptic, ultra-conservative and ally of the Russian Vladimir Putin Mateo Salvini, and Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia, causes friction in the community policies and upset the balance at a geopolitically complex moment,
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Follow live all the information after the elections in Italy
Meanwhile, Eurosceptics have rushed to welcome Meloni, who will join the political family that makes up the leading forces in Poland and Hungary.
The victory of the Brothers of Italy, with the approval and encouragement of the European People's Party (to which Berlusconi's Forza Italia belongs) marks a shift to the right of that conservative spectrum, which has been moving to the right to try not to lose space.
The European Commission has assured this Monday that it hopes to have a “constructive cooperation” with the future Italian Government, which is expected to be led by Meloni.
"The Commission and the president [Ursula von der Leyen] work with the governments that come out of the polls of the elections of the EU countries and it will not make a difference in that case", stressed the spokesman for the Community Executive, Eric Mamer, who has denied that the Italian elections can be read as a "trial" of European policies.
However, the Italian scene can also be read in a similar way to the Swedish one, where earlier this month the far-right Sweden Democrats became the second most voted party in the country and the largest on the right. , which is expected to form a government coalition in the Nordic country (although the role of the far-right formation is not yet clear).
The fit of the next Italian Executive and the policies that it implements with respect to the EU are seen with some uncertainty in Brussels.
One of the keys is who Meloni will choose to get closer to, who for months cried out against the "Brussels bureaucrats" but who has moderated the tone regarding EU policies out of necessity, community sources point out.
Because Meloni's victory also represents an increase in forces not only of the extreme right in the EU but also a boost for eurosceptics.
And if Meloni bets on allying himself with the positions of the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, and the Pole, Mateusz Morawiecki —both targeted for not complying with the democratic standards of the EU and the rule of law—, that group will gain strength.
The far-right formations allergic to the policies of Brussels —although extremely dependent on community funds— have congratulated Meloni with great praise.
"In these difficult times, we need more than ever friends who share a common vision and approach to Europe's challenges," Balázs Orbán, a close associate of Viktor Orbán, said on social media.
Poles and German far-rightists have also applauded Meloni.
Brussels Warnings
The president of the European Commission warned at the end of last week, to a question about Italy and the then next electoral result, that Brussels has "tools" such as the freezing of community funds to pressure towards compliance with the rule of law, such as in the case of Hungary and Poland.
Von der Leyen thus seemed to give a wake-up call in the face of Meloni's next gestures, who has already spoken, for example, of the need to review the EU's 200 billion euro recovery plan.
The Italian has promised to continue the policies of her predecessor, Mario Draghi, in military support for Ukraine, as well as to maintain a hard line on sanctions against Russia, but her coalition ally, Matteo Salvini, has attacked them, assuring that they have a cost to the Italian economy.
In line with Von der Leyen, the French Prime Minister, Élisabeth Borne, warned on Monday that all member states must respect values such as human rights and the right to abortion;
also in Hungary and Poland.
“Obviously, we will be attentive, with the president of the European Commission, so that these values on human rights, on respect for each other, in particular respect for the right to abortion, are respected by all”, Borne said in an interview to the channel BFMTV.
The Spanish Foreign Minister, the socialist José Manuel Albares, has insisted that the Italian results must be read in a European key at a "very defining" moment.
“It is a time of uncertainty and in times of uncertainty populism always gains importance and always ends the same way:
The PPE turn
Meloni's victory also consecrates the turn to the right of the European People's Party.
The decline of the traditional right in Germany, the Netherlands, Poland or France has led the formation led by the German Manfred Weber to normalize an electoral alliance with the extreme right, with which a cordon sanitaire was previously maintained, in order to stay afloat .
The Italian —with governments that last 18 months on average— could be the ideal laboratory to test these pacts in the face, for example, of the Spanish elections of 2023.
The EPP has applauded the results obtained by Forza Italia and has stressed that it will act as a compass for the European values of the next Italian Executive, which will presumably be headed by the Brothers of Italy.
"We trust that Forza Italia will guide the next government on a path that serves the best interests of the Italian people as part of a strong and stable Europe," the EPP said in a statement.
Its president, who has received numerous interpellations to position himself on the support of Berlusconi's party to the extreme right, has remained silent.
Social disenchantment, the energy crisis caused by the Kremlin and its war in Ukraine, and the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic have hit the centrist parties in Europe, which are relocating;
and almost always more to the right.
The turn to the extreme right initiated by Italy may endanger the tripartite (popular, socialist, liberal) that supports the European Commission this mandate.
The Von der Leyen Executive was born from that fragile three-way balance.
And that also causes concern in Brussels.
The president was elected with a very tight percentage (the ultras also supported her, although her vote was not decisive) and it remains to be seen if she will hold out for re-election in the elections scheduled for 2024 and if the vote of the far-right and eurosceptic parties will be key code.
Also for this reason, Brussels awaits the movements of the Italian team.
“The next Italian government will have to deal with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and with its own economic and financial situation.
But you could also decide to introduce new files,
think tank
European Council on International Relations (ECFR).
With the victory of the extremist Brothers of Italy, the balance of power in the Council of the European Union will change.
The ECR coalition (European Conservatives and Reformists), which includes, for example, Vox, or the ultra-conservative party in the Polish Government Law and Justice, will be the second political formation in terms of population (about 100 million inhabitants, around 25%), behind the Social Democrats and ahead of the liberals of Renew Europe and the European People's Party, which will continue to represent the majority of countries in the Council, but none of them belong to the category of large or medium-sized Member States .
A variable that can be significant, since when it comes to voting in the Council, people vote in terms of population.
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