End of war in Ukraine: Russian annexation could prevent peace

Created: 09/26/2022, 16:32

By: Felix Busjaeger

Ukraine, Luhansk: People line up to take part in a mock referendum.

© Uncredited/AP/dpa

The world is hoping for an end to the Ukraine war.

But the sham referendums in Ukraine could push a peaceful solution further into the distance.

An analysis.

Kyiv – Russia’s partial mobilization has made the war in Ukraine even more explosive: After fresh allegations of mass graves and torture by Russian soldiers circulating, an end to the war in Ukraine thanks to Vladimir Putin’s call to arms seems even more distant move.

But the 300,000 reservists tasked with making up for Russian losses at the front are not the only obstacles to peace in Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy made it clear: An annexation of Ukrainian territories by Russia would make negotiations impossible.

End of the Ukraine war: Partial mobilization and referendums could bring new dynamics to the war

Shortly after Vladimir Putin announced partial mobilization in Russia, mock referendums have been held in the four occupied regions of Cherson, Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhia since Friday, September 23, about a possible union with Russia.

Until Tuesday, people in the regions can take part in the votes, which are internationally criticized as a breach of international law.

It is expected that Putin could incorporate the areas into the Russian Federation as early as Friday, September 30, 2022.

Should this happen, an end to the Ukraine war could be a long way off.

Zelenskyy had already warned in the first months of the war that a possible annexation of Ukrainian territories would destroy all chances for peace negotiations.

This is also reflected in the rhetoric of the past few days: both Russia and Ukraine continue to sharpen their sabers in their speeches, and Western experts fear a further escalation in the Ukraine war all the more.

When will the war in Ukraine end?

Zelenskyj rules out negotiations after a possible annexation

If a peaceful solution to the Ukraine war is no longer possible from a Ukrainian point of view following a possible annexation of the Cherson, Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhia regions by Russia, the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv could intensify in the coming months.

His recent reaction to the referenda showed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy could be prepared for such a scenario.

The Ukrainian President renewed his call for Western support with heavy weapons.

"If the US is able to demonstrate its leadership role and procure the tanks, then Germany and other European countries will follow," said Zelenskyy, adding: "I think if we get tanks from the US, we will." the European allies are also helping to evacuate the Ukrainian cities with tanks.” It gives the impression that Zelenskyj does not expect the Ukraine war to end in the near future.

Putin before possible use of nuclear weapons: escalation could slow down the end of the Ukraine war

The Russian aggressor in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, has recently shown himself to be increasingly combative and has not shied away from using nuclear weapons to threaten the West.

How dangerous an escalation to nuclear war in Europe in 2022 would be can currently only be guessed at.

But the consequences would not be limited to Ukraine: released radioactivity could affect the entire continent and affect the food supply of entire nations.

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It should be noted that if Russia moves further and further away from an end to the Ukraine war and chooses an intensified escalation, the effects would be felt globally.

Should that happen, the war in Ukraine could also grow beyond its borders into an expanding war and in the end there would be one loser in particular: Ukraine.

Annexation by Russia: According to Zelenskyj, an end to the war in Ukraine would be unlikely

A possible end to the war in Ukraine could become unlikely due to Zelenskyy's statements regarding the mock referendums in Ukraine.

However, in the first weeks of the war there were already signs that both sides were interested in a solution to the conflict.

Russian and Ukrainian delegations held negotiations, but these efforts have long been on hold.

As a condition for peace, Russia recently called for the recognition of the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which had been annexed since 2014, as Russian.

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These conditions were not sustainable for Ukraine.

Should Russia attempt to incorporate the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Cherson regions into the Russian Federation through referendums, it can be assumed that similar demands from the Kremlin would make timely peace negotiations impossible.

Defeat of Russia: overthrow of Putin could bring end to Ukraine war

Aside from the possibility that Russia will allow the war in Ukraine to escalate, the end of the Ukraine war could ultimately also be initiated by the defeat of the Kremlin.

For weeks there have been increasing signs that Vladimir Putin could also be acting out of desperation: Russian troops suffered major defeats, particularly in southern and eastern Ukraine.

Supported by Western supplies, Ukrainian soldiers are becoming increasingly powerful and could ultimately ensure that Ukraine could win the war against Russia.

In addition, sentiment against Putin is increasing in Russia: Triggered by the partial mobilization, people are venting their anger on the streets and several politicians loyal to the Kremlin are increasingly becoming members of the opposition.

According to experts, the head of the Kremlin seems weaker than ever and could also lose touch with his last allies in the coming weeks.

Should the Russian president bleed to death militarily despite the partial mobilization and internal pressure even lead to Putin's fall, the end of the Ukraine war could also be triggered by Putin's defeat.

Ukraine war: Danger of nuclear war growing – referendums in Ukraine could lead to escalation

All possible outcomes of the Ukraine war could meanwhile have serious repercussions for global society, ranging from new migration movements and famine to an extensive nuclear war.

There still seems to be a long way to go before peace can prevail in Ukraine: while the referendums in Cherson, Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhia could mean a further escalation of the war, the end of the Ukraine war uncertain.