Italian election: Brotherhood in power, Mussolini haze for the first time after World War II?

The results of the Italian general election on September 25 will usher in the most right-hand government since World War II.

This year also happens to be the 100th anniversary of the 1922 fascist dictator Benito Mussolini led the black shirt army into Rome to seize power.

There is a historic sense of apprehension in the minds of supporters wearing black shirts at rallies of Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the Italian Fraternal Party (FdI), who is expected to be the next prime minister.

According to pre-election polls, the Brotherhood leads all parties by 25%.

The party also forms a right-wing alliance with Matteo Salvini's League (13%) and former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia (7%).

Big victory in sight

Although their total support is less than half, the left-wing party is divided at the moment, the traditional center-left Democratic Party (PD) has 22% support, but only cooperates with a few small parties, while the second largest party on the left, the Five Star Movement, has 13% support. (M5S) was rejected by the Democratic Party because of its single-handed promotion of Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and a small left-wing liberal party like Azione played the banner of "keep Draghi", hoping Voters tactically voted for the party, leaving no caucus in Congress to form a majority, and then again making "Draghi" the only "way out".

However, unless there is a sudden change in the political situation in Italy, because one-third of the seats in the Italian Congress adopt a single-seat leader-win game, the united right wing will be able to defeat the divided left wing, so the right-wing alliance is almost Winning a majority in Congress, and possibly even two-thirds of the seats that would allow them to amend the constitution without a referendum.

Since Italian public opinion seems to support changing the parliamentary system to a presidential system, some people worry that the future right-wing government will use the constitutional amendment to let Italy have another figure similar to Mussolini.

The three-party leaders of the right-wing alliance: Salvini, Beronsconi and Meloni.

The latter will become Italy's first female prime minister.

(AP)

At this moment, Meloni has been constantly claiming that the fraternal party has sent fascism to history and unequivocally opposed Mussolini's suppression of the democratic system, but people are not impressed with this young man who took the initiative to join the neo-fascist political group and the great leader. Zan Mussolini is the "future prime minister" of a great statesman that Italy has not seen since World War II, and he has to have some doubts.

In particular, Salvini, Beronsconi and others have a tendency to worship strongmen. The latter recently claimed in an interview that Putin "just" wants to change the Zelensky government, which seems to mean weakening Russia- - However, Meloni himself has always held a tough stance on Russia consistent with NATO and the European Union.

Although the Brotherhood was established in 2012, its origins can be traced back to the Neo-Fascist political party Italian Social Movement (MSI) founded in 1946. Meloni himself was also a member of the MSI youth organization.

This history is exactly what Meloni wants voters to forget.

Meloni's Defascization

During the campaign, Meloni has always emphasized that the Brotherhood is just a traditional European and American conservative party, no different from the British Conservative Party and the American Republican Party.

This figure who has only graduated from high school and whose governance experience is limited to a three-year term as a youth minister has also raised the banner of supporting NATO, Ukraine, and prudent fiscal policies, and has included many former professional officials from the center-right in Italy in the past. Increased confidence in her as prime minister.

This kind of "whitewashing" is not only to stabilize domestic support, but also to consider external publicity.

After all, at the moment, Italy, whose national debt is as high as 150% of its economic output, is facing high inflation, a shortage of energy supplies in winter and the Russian-Ukrainian war, and Meloni's "predecessor" is a godfather figure in European financial politics and a former European Central Bank banker. Draghi, whose prestige is unmatched in Italian politics, let alone Meloni, who has always been on the fringes of mainstream politics.

After the right-wing coalition won the election and went straight to power, if the outside world loses confidence in Meloni, Italy may fall into another debt crisis - the spread between Italian 10-year government bonds and German government bonds has reached 2.3 percentage points , twice the level during Draghi’s stable reign before the Russo-Ukrainian war.

At the last rally on polling day, some thought an unusually high proportion of those present wore black.

(AP)

However, it is questionable whether Melloni's gentle turn will be consistent.

On the one hand, she actively introduced to foreign political circles that she is not an extreme right-winger in multiple languages, but on the other hand, she still clings to right-wing ideology.

In June of this year, on a stage with Spain's far-right Vox party, Meloni dramatically chanted: "Say yes to natural families! Say no to LGBT lobbying! Say yes to gender identity. Say no to gender ideology! Say no to mass immigration! Say yes to jobs for people! Say no to big international finance! Say no to the bureaucrats in Brussels!”

Many Italians have questioned that Meloni's support for NATO and arms aid to Ukraine is just a diplomatic façade so that foreign investors and the government can continue to support Italy financially.

They worry that Meloni will use the majority in Congress to tighten the abortion-allowing legislation passed in Italy in 1978, or revoke the existing civil union of homosexuals in Italy, and break away from the three giant system of Germany, France and Italy at the EU level, and join The camp of Hungary and Prime Minister Viktor Orban, now voted disqualified by the European Parliament as a democracy, has added to the Eurosceptic force after Sweden turned to the right and the far-right in France won the most votes in history.

Can the opposition govern?

People are also deeply suspicious of Melloni's transition from the opposition to the ruling party.

Meloni has been in the opposition all his life.

In her autobiography, she said that the reason why she joined the neo-fascist political group when she was in middle school was not only because of her irresistible anger over her love and hatred of Italy, but also because of her general left-wing tendencies towards her teachers and classmates. Rebellious.

After the Beronsconi government collapsed due to the European debt crisis at the end of 2011, Meloni was reluctant to support the technocratic government even in the face of the national crisis, and instead founded a fraternal party with the so-called "post-fascists" as an opposition; 2021 When the well-respected Draghi formed the grand coalition government under the epidemic, the far-right League Party and Beronsconi both joined the government with the overall situation as the top priority, but Meloni still remained the same and insisted on being the opposition.

Melloni who gave a speech with enthusiasm..

(AP)

Opposition only needs to be spoken, but governance is practical.

So far, at least in words, Meloni has been pragmatic.

When her Coalition ally Salvini ignored Italy's high debt and talked of borrowing tens of billions of euros for distribution, and "leaved" to question EU sanctions on Russia, Meloni resisted this populist style. The distribution of money shows that it will respect fiscal norms, and stand firmly in the position of transatlanticism.

However, after taking office, faced with difficult practical governance issues, it is difficult to guarantee that Meloni will not give up the hard way and play the culture war card of anti-EU, support for conservative values, and anti-immigration, and like many right-wing politicians around the world, Send money to buy people's hearts, and even use state power to suppress opposition political parties and the media through the majority of its parliament, just like the Hungarian Prime Minister Orban in the past ten years.

far right handicap

There are probably only three kinds of forces that can actually hinder Meloni's arbitrary actions.

One is the EU's 200 billion euro recovery fund for Italy.

The sum, linked to Italy's institutional reforms, is the largest since the Marshall Plan after World War II.

At present, Meloni has indicated that she will continue to promote the reform plan that the current Prime Minister Draghi and the European Commission have reached, but in the new situation of high inflation, she hopes to discuss some details with the European Commission.

Melloni's foreign stance and domestic policy will also be limited by EU officials because of the huge sum of money.

The second is Italian public opinion.

According to the latest poll before the election, 80% of Italian respondents supported Draghi's reforms, 72% believed that Italy should play a bigger role in the EU, 73% believed that Italy should remain in NATO, and 57% supported continuing Sanctions against Russia, 61% support the abolition of the government's national income benefits.

If public opinion remains unchanged, Meloni will continue his pro-Europe, pro-US and fiscally cautious policy direction, even if he doesn't want to.

Draghi, the current prime minister who once saved the euro zone, has high prestige both at home and abroad.

After he took office, Italy was named country of the year by The Economist; he was also named Europe's most powerful man in 2022 after German Chancellor Angela Merkel stepped down.

(AP)

The third is the division within the right-wing coalition.

On the sanctions against Russia, the transfer of arms to Ukraine, the domestic money distribution policy, and Draghi's system and political reform, the fraternal parties and the Alliance parties have different positions; on the basis of adhering to the democratic values ​​of the EU, the fraternal parties and the Alliance parties have different positions. On the side of Hungary's Orban, who had voted against the European Parliament's characterization that Hungary was no longer democratic, Beronsconi held high Europeanism.

Although Meloni will be the prime minister as the largest party on the right, she will have to reach a consensus with her allies if she wants to govern smoothly, or seek the support of the opposition parties when the consensus does not exist.

Such differences will prevent Melloni from governing as he pleases.

To sum up, although some Italian liberals today are worried that Meloni’s rule will bring Italy into crisis, but due to various constraints, Meloni cannot effectively lead Italy to deal with the economic and energy problems it is facing. The crisis, too, probably won't turn into another Orban, reversing Italy's relations with the EU, the US, and its own democratic institutions.

An Italian observer has an interesting comment about the election that the far right is almost certain to come to power: the most important question in this election is not whether Meloni is a fascist or not, but why Italians don’t care whether she is a fascist or not.

The answer to this question is probably the Italian voters who have faced the long-term failure of the government to govern. What politicians and parties have tried (Italy has had 69 governments since World War II), except for the unelected, technically like Draghi. Apart from the characters, only parties with a fascist background, such as the fraternal party, which won only 4% of the votes in 2018, have not tried it.

When the former fascist party came to power, it was probably the result of many voters who decided to gamble.

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