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Top 20 task list | It is still a consensus to seek "stability" from "closed country"


In September, before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the epidemic broke out again in China. This time, it affected nearly 100 cities in more than 20 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. According to media statistics, at the beginning of September, there were 33 cities including 7 provincial capital cities and 1 municipality directly under the Central Government.

In September, before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the epidemic broke out again in China.

This time, it affected nearly 100 cities in more than 20 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions.

According to media statistics, at the beginning of September, 33 cities, including 7 provincial capitals and 1 municipality directly under the Central Government, implemented partial or global travel restrictions.

From Wuhan in 2020 to the current N wave of the epidemic, nearly 300 cities in China have been closed to varying degrees.

According to Western public opinion, under the dynamic reset policy of the past two years, the effect of the lockdown has expanded into a nationwide "closed country".

Especially starting from the end of 2021, logistics efficiency will decline, the economy will decline, several "regulated" industries will generally go bankrupt, unemployment will rise, people's grievances and dissatisfaction have reached unprecedented heights since the reform and opening up, and the confidence of capital and entrepreneurs has fallen to the bottom. .

Based on this, the public opinion level is very concerned about whether the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will change the policy of "dynamic clearing".

In other words, it is hoped that China's epidemic prevention policy will be loosened after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which is regarded by public opinion as the most urgent task list.

However, based on various sources and the continuous release of the official: "Adhering to the general policy of 'dynamic clearing' is a summary of my country's successful experience in dealing with the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and it is an important achievement formed on the basis of continuously adjusting prevention and control measures according to the times and circumstances." The press conference of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council of China also emphasized: "We must unswervingly adhere to the general strategy of 'external defense import, internal defense rebound' and the general policy of 'dynamic clearing'", so it is generally judged that "dynamic clearing" The policy will not change, but there will be higher requirements for "scientific and precise control of the epidemic".

Originally, insisting on the policy of "dynamic clearing" did not mean "closing the country".

For Beijing, the biggest consensus is to "stabilize" the epidemic, the economy, the society, and the people's hearts.

The Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council holds regular press conferences on the prevention and control of the new crown epidemic.

(Xinhua News Agency)

Will China's globalization end?

The epidemic has entered its third year. US President Biden believes that the new crown epidemic in the United States is "over", and many European countries have also announced the end of the epidemic. In contrast, China's "dynamic clearing" general policy of epidemic prevention and control is still in place. Strictly guard against death.

Therefore, Western media consider this to be a "closed country".

However, from the data point of view, in the first half of 2022, the total value of China's import and export of goods trade was 19.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.4% year-on-year.

Among them, exports were 11.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.2%; imports were 8.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%.

According to the official language: "At present, the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the international environment are more severe and complex. my country's foreign trade development is still facing some unstable and uncertain factors, and there is still a lot of pressure to maintain stability and improve quality. However, we must also see that my country's economy is resilient. The fundamentals have not changed with sufficient potential and long-term improvement. With the implementation of the national package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy and the orderly progress of resumption of work and production, my country’s foreign trade is expected to continue to maintain stable growth.”

Since the outbreak, China's import and export data have maintained high growth.


In addition, from January to August 2022, the actual use of foreign capital in China was 892.74 billion yuan, an increase of 16.4% year-on-year on a comparable basis (the same below), equivalent to US$138.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%.

The actual use of foreign capital in the high-tech industry increased by 33.6% year-on-year, of which the high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 43.1% year-on-year, and the high-tech service industry increased by 31% year-on-year.

In terms of sources, actual investment in China from South Korea, Germany, Japan and the UK increased by 58.9%, 30.3%, 26.8% and 17.2% respectively year-on-year.

According to data from the National Immigration Administration of China, in the second quarter of 2022, the national immigration management agency checked a total of 32.293 million entry and exit persons.

In 2021, a total of 128 million entry and exit personnel were inspected, compared with 670 million in 2019 before the epidemic.

In contrast, that is to say, in fact, under the epidemic situation, of course, it will be affected by the economic operation, but the circulation of "things" and "money" is generally normal, but the circulation of "people" has not been restored, or even far from it.

The so-called "closed country" is the perception function of "people".

Some views believe that the epidemic will exacerbate the trend of de-globalization, and even lead to at least the end of this round of globalization; some even believe that the global industrial chain will collapse and China will decouple from the world.

Some of these views are exaggerated, and the Internet is filled with all kinds of irrational emotions.

Under the epidemic, China has been locked down from time to time.

(taken from Weibo)

When "black swan" events occur frequently, it may be better to try to distinguish which are short-term effects and which are long-term trends. Avoid treating rhythm issues as structural issues, cyclical issues as trend issues, and local issues as general issues.

The economy has cycles, industries have cycles, currencies have cycles, policies have cycles, globalization has cycles, and investor sentiment has cycles, but cyclical problems or periodic problems will not change the general trend.

In terms of economic and trade, the so-called "closed country" caused by the epidemic is only a short-term phenomenon, and the regional restructuring of the industrial chain is also limited and structural.

Of course, there is no need to deny that under the influence of China's epidemic prevention and control policies, multinational companies will definitely make adjustments in the layout of the global industrial chain.

Like not putting all your eggs in one basket, the principle of risk management will be emphasized again.

Compared with "where the cost is low" before the epidemic, after the epidemic, all cross-border connections will indeed take into account some new variables, such as whether the destination country is reliable in a major crisis, such as the destination country in special times. What kind of special policies are adopted, etc.

It's not just a question of cost, there are many factors to consider.

Some originally purely economic issues may now be considered at the national strategic level.

This inevitably leads to some changes.

This is bound to happen.

But to what extent the impact will be said.

Frankly speaking, at the level of imagination, it is easy to say that China is "closed to the country" and will inevitably "de-globalize", isolate itself, and be separated from the global industrial chain, but from the data point of view, it is obviously not the case.

Most concern is stability

"Dynamic clearing" or "letting go" is a dilemma with advantages and disadvantages.

There is no absolute right answer.

Take someone's point of view, but it's better to let go.

From the perspective of other people, dynamic clearing is better.

"The economy will improve immediately after the liberalization, and few people will die." This statement must be firmly opposed. It is not scientific, and these public opinions are also driven by emotions.

After the liberalization, once it spreads on a large scale, dead people, medical runs, and the economy are hit, those who say these words will jump out.

Their behavior is completely driven by positions and emotions, and they don't speak science, don't look at data, and don't respect facts.

From the perspective of the country's overall interests, Beijing is most concerned about stability, not social chaos, and peace in the world.

The key word for China in the next 20 to 30 years is "stability".

At this stage of the competition between China and the United States, the competition is who is more "stable", who will not be in civil strife, and who will make fewer mistakes, and who will win in the end.

Most people in China also want "stability" and not "chaos".

Under the epidemic, the Chinese government is actively trying to ensure the supply of materials, but various problems are still exposed.


However, what can be discussed is what is "stable".

Xiao Gui and Cao Sui are not stable, and rigid and conservative is not stable.

Deng Xiaoping has said many times: the key to reform and opening up is stability.

Stability is overriding everything. Anything that hinders stability must be dealt with. No concession or accommodation is allowed.

This statement seems contradictory.

Reform is to do new things, and doing new things will definitely affect stability.

But according to the dialectical point of view, contradiction is objective, contradiction exists in all things, and runs through the development process of each thing from beginning to end.

Social development will accumulate all kinds of problems. If you only seek stability, the problems will be difficult to get back, and you will seek stability instead of instability.

It is stable in the short term, but unstable in the long term.

Ancient China was a stable society.

Contradiction accumulates and cannot be fundamentally reformed, followed by the historical cyclical law, where prosperity and turmoil alternate.

The Western system looks stable now, but because of its stability, it is difficult to reform internally.

Western democracies have not stood the test of history.

Stability, in fact, should be "dynamic stability", not "static stability".

Like watching circus acrobatics, tightrope walkers don't stand still like a stick.

Instead, there is also shaking, and while shaking, it adjusts its balance.

Dynamic stability allows shaking, allowing left shaking and right shaking. The core is to shake without falling off and maintain balance.

Whether it was the initial lockdown of Wuhan or today's Shanghai, the specific problems are the same, and individual tragedies continue to unfold.


The foundation of reform is stability.

But the reform itself is to break the steady state, which will lead to instability. This seemingly contradictory sentence contains dialectics and China's political wisdom.

Just because the foundation is stable, we should dare to reform, dare to shake a few times, and then achieve dynamic balance.

If it is unstable and all energy is used to prevent it from falling, then there is no courage or motivation to reform.

There are undoubtedly various problems in today's China.

However, if we blindly seek "static stability" and do not face the problem head-on and do not reform, it will appear to be stable in the short term, but it will be more unstable in the long run.

No one can accurately judge what posture is the most stable and balanced in the long run.

It can only be tested by practice.

Therefore, if we need to adjust and reform, the reform will be shaken, and some people will feel unstable, but this is nothing, and there is no need to be too nervous.

The same is true for the principle of "dynamic clearing", as is the dynamic balance of economic development.

Keep dynamic stability, stagger but don't fall, and move firmly towards the goal.

Prospects of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China︱There may be no new formulations of economic policies, not an ideological issue

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2022-09-26

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