Russia is becoming more and more passive because of the unfavorable frontline combat. Two of Russia's most important "friends", China and India, both bluntly expressed their "doubts and concerns" about the battlefield situation during the SCO summit, and continued counter-offensive pressure in Ukraine. Russia not only carried out its first war mobilization after World War II, but also continuously threatened Ukraine and the West with nuclear war.
Imagine, if Russia can prepare for the war and put on the "137,000 + 300,000" troops mobilized in the past two months at the beginning, will it still be so passive now?
Most likely it shouldn't.
If these hundreds of thousands of troops were smashed down from the beginning, and the intelligence work was slightly better, Kyiv might have been taken long ago.
In this way, the Russian side has fully grasped the initiative: to advance, it can order all Ukraine to attack western Ukraine by controlling the proxy government of Kyiv, and completely demilitarize Ukraine; retreat, it can use the withdrawal of troops as a bargaining chip to force Ukraine to demilitarize It is written into the constitution that anti-Russianization and anti-Russia are not allowed to be written into the constitution, and the West is coerced to lift the economic and financial sanctions against Russia.
On September 16, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping attended a meeting and talked at the SCO summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.
Putin said he understood China's "doubts and concerns".
(AP)
Or put another way, Russia still uses its original military strength and does not conduct war mobilization. As long as it does not spread such a large stall at the beginning, it will concentrate its forces on the basis of consolidating the occupation of the Donbass and expand to other regions and slowly nibble away (similar to Due to the "cannibalization policy" adopted by Japan when it invaded China), the weakness of the Russian army will not be completely exposed, and the West will not rush to large-scale military assistance.
In this case, because Ukraine's strategy is not deep enough to fight a protracted war like China did in the past, and because the strength of the two sides is not equal, the Ukrainian army will face great pressure on the Eastern Front battlefield, and it is very likely that it will face a series of defeats. ending.
In the end, Russia may make some sacrifices and the war will last longer, but the outcome of the war is not difficult to predict.
Firefighters put out a fire in a warehouse after a Russian bombing in Kharkiv, Ukraine.
(AP)
But unfortunately, there is no such thing as history. Russia is too reckless and arrogant. The Russian General Staff Headquarters has formulated a combat strategy that is completely opposite to the cannibalization policy. At the beginning, they spread the booth very large and set a very high strategic goal. , wanting to advance in a pincer shape from the north and the south, cooperate with the eastern offensive, occupy Kyiv in one fell swoop, and take the entire Udong, suddenly aroused the entire European society, the security fear of Tsarist Russia and the Red Soviet Union has been rooted in the heart for hundreds of years.
However, on the other hand, the amount of military resources invested by the Russian army cannot support such a war goal at all. In addition, the military scientific and technological capabilities are too poor, the intelligence work is full of loopholes, and the judgment of Western intervention is wrong. The son fell into a passive position, and finally had no choice but to withdraw the army from the north and south, and changed the all-out attack to a key attack on the Donbass area.
Only in this way, the morale of the Ukrainian army will rise, and the morale of the Russian army will go down. Europe and the United States see the Russian army's performance so bad, and they are even more arrogant and bold in supporting Ukraine, so the next Kharkov was defeated. Not surprising for the Russian army.
After this defeat, the morale of the Russian army was even lower, and the frustration began to spread. In turn, the morale of the Ukrainian army was further increased. The European and American gamblers also planned to cast more chips here.
Russia has no choice but to continuously increase its troops, which has fallen into a dangerous "refueling tactic".
A soldier walks through the rubble of war.
(AP)
There is a fable about a man who was punished for breaking the law. The judge gave him the following options: 1. Eat five catties of garlic; 2. Get fifty strokes of the whip;
Choose one of the three to be exonerated.
Unexpectedly, the prisoner chose to eat garlic first, but he couldn't eat half of it, so he had to give up; instead, he chose to be beaten, but when he was beaten halfway, he felt that his life would not be saved after the beating, so he had to give up .
In the end it was found that there was no choice but to accept the fine.
This time every penalty was tried.
This allegory is particularly relevant and special to Russia.
The Russian army made a lot of mistakes on the battlefield this time. Various tactical mistakes made people surprised, but its most fatal mistake was strategic. If the strategy was wrong, it would be difficult to succeed no matter how hard they worked tactically. Tactically, not so much in military technology.
Fortunately, now Russia has recognized the problem and began to make changes.
In recent months, Russia has been shrinking its war targets. Putin's demands for the war have been shrunk from the original "full offensive" to a "key offensive" against the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, and more recently, to focus on Donba. Defensive operations in the occupied area.
While Russia is mobilizing and expanding its military, Russia has also instigated a referendum to change the sovereignty of the four states in eastern and southern Ukraine, and forcibly annexed this piece of land that originally belonged to Ukraine into Russian territory. "Legal" deployed in these places, and then used "self-defense" as an excuse to reshape the legitimacy of the war, turn on the nuclear button, and deter the Ukrainian army from attacking.
It's just that whether they can succeed or not depends on the practice of war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and Defense Minister Shoigu (right) attend an event on the outskirts of Moscow.
(AP)
So what does this have to do with China?
There are revelations in strategy, tactics, warfare technology, etc., but the most important revelations are actually two: first, use a knife to kill a chicken, never kill a chicken with a knife, kill yourself with blood, and the chicken is still alive and kicking , you must first use the means of thunder, and then the heart of the bodhisattva. If you reverse this order, you will be in big trouble.
Article 2: We must objectively understand and accurately assess the strengths of all parties, so as to "know ourselves and our enemies". We must not underestimate the opponent just because the opponent is weak. It is better to overestimate the difficulty and not be blindly optimistic. Beware of being misled by "politically correct" hypnotic propaganda or inaccurate intelligence.
These two lessons will have very important implications for China in the future when the Taiwan issue must be resolved by non-peaceful means.
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