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Austria: How the ÖVP reinterprets its crash as a success

2022-09-27T12:29:28.023Z


The conservatives were wiped out in the state elections in Tyrol, but will probably continue to govern. What does that mean for Austria's Chancellor Nehammer and his black-green coalition?


Tyrol has voted - and that sounds less spectacular than it is.

Outside the Austrian border, the federal state is best known for its mountains, idyllic holidays and, at least since the beginning of the pandemic, for the ski resort of Ischgl.

What happens there politically is rarely noticed outside of Tyrol.

But the state elections that took place there last Sunday point the way for Austria in various respects.

The starting point:

In Tyrol, the People's Party has provided the provincial governor without interruption since 1945.

Or as they say in Austria: Tyrol is jet black – alluding to the party color of the ÖVP.

Tyrol is currently governed by a black-green coalition.

As always, the ÖVP provides the governor, the Greens are the much smaller junior partner.

So the situation is similar to that at the federal level in Vienna, where the ÖVP is the chancellor party and governs with the weaker Greens.

The current Tyrolean Governor is Günther Platter.

However, the veteran ÖVP man announced in June that he was resigning as state party leader.

His successor is now Anton Mattle, the less than charismatic Tyrolean Economic Provincial Councilor.

He will probably succeed Platter in the post of governor.

How did the election change the situation?

The ÖVP fell by almost ten percentage points in the state elections.

It is the historically worst result of the conservatives in Tyrol.

Specifically, the ÖVP lost a quarter of its voters from the previous state election.

However, you won't find a brilliant election winner anywhere else in Tyrol.

The right-wing populist FPÖ was able to gain some ground, while the Social Democrats and the liberal Neos improved their results slightly.

The small regional party “List Fritz” almost doubled, albeit with less than ten percent of the votes.

The Greens lost easily.

Despite its poor result, the ÖVP is still the strongest party.

Most political observers expect the ÖVP and SPÖ to form the next state government together.

Why the Tyrolean election outcome is important for all of Austria:

  • It was the first choice since Karl Nehammer took over the ÖVP from Sebastian Kurz.

    Under Kurz, the Conservatives had won ten state and federal elections in a row.

    The chancellor was seen as the driving force, even if – as in the federal states – he was not even up for election.

    Nehammer lacks this radiance.

    That was also clear before the Tyrol elections.

    If the ÖVP had fallen even further, as polls originally predicted, Nehammer might have had to resign as federal party leader.

    That's off the table for now.

  • A black-green government was voted out – the same constellation as at the federal level.

    The Austrian government is badly hit after suspected ÖVP corruption affairs and in the midst of multiple crises.

    In polls, the ÖVP and the Greens are now far from having a common majority.

    For weeks there has therefore been speculation about new elections in Austria.

    But they would have to be triggered by one of the governing parties.

    And the election in Tyrol made the ÖVP and the Greens clearly aware of what would also threaten at federal level: a clear crash.

    Nationwide new elections became less likely again.

  • Tyrol could soon launch a new grand coalition - and thus become a model for all of Austria.

    Nationwide there will be re-elections in 2024 at the latest.

    And after that, in the absence of a black-green majority, a new government constellation will probably also be responsible in Vienna.

    A comeback of red and black is then not improbable in Austria - unless Tyrol becomes a deterrent example.

  • The ÖVP could draw strength from this state election.

    The People's Party in Tyrol was most successful in expectation management.

    After even lousy polls in advance, the crash is now being sold as a success.

    The party will continue to appoint the provincial governor, albeit the one with the worst election results in Austria.

    For the state elections in Lower Austria and Salzburg in the coming months, however, it is clear that even a minus of almost ten percentage points is manageable.

  • For even more background, our podcast "Inside Austria" is dedicated to the Tyrol election and its effects on Saturday.

    And after the election is before the election, as a bad politician's saying goes.

    At least that is currently true for Austria – in one and a half weeks the Federal President will be elected in a direct election.

    Spoilers: Alexander Van der Bellen remains in office.

    It will be interesting to see if there will be a runoff.

    The election campaign and above all the opposing candidates have it all.

    You can listen to all the information about this election in last Saturday's podcast - I also recommend that if you haven't heard it yet.

    Social Media Moment of the Week:

    In Austria there is currently a lot of discussion about what a Federal President is allowed to do and what not.

    Opinions even differ when it comes to his choice of outerwear.

    Stories we recommend you today:

    • Podcast: How (right) radical are Van der Bellen's rivals? 

    • Nobody is allowed to celebrate a triumph: What the Tyrol election reveals to the federal parties 

    • Interview with the President of the National Council, Wolfgang Sobotka: “Nobody is a saint in the U-Committee” 

    Warm regards from Vienna,

    Yours Catherine Mittelstaedt


    And once again a note on our own behalf: You can order this briefing as a newsletter to your e-mail inbox here.

    Source: spiegel

    All news articles on 2022-09-27

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