Election in Brazil: why it matters to Germany who will be the next president
Created: 09/27/2022, 13:18
By: Lisa Kuner
Brazil will elect a new president next Sunday - the right-wing extremist Bolsonaro or the moderate "Lula" da Silva: The outcome of the election will have a decisive impact on Europe's top issues of climate protection and new energy sources.
Rio de Janeiro - The former president of Brazil made a European tour in the spring.
Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva smiled for cameras, was received by heads of state and gave interviews.
At that point, Lula wasn't actually holding any office, strictly speaking it was just an ex-president.
Nevertheless, he presented himself statesmanlike on his stations - and was received as such by many countries.
Lula demonstrated international support long before the Brazilian election campaign even got off the ground.
The international appearances of the current Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro are completely different.
Pictures from the World Climate Conference went around the world last year, showing him somewhat lost among other statesmen and women.
While Lula is well integrated into the international structure around the world, the right-wing populist Bolsonaro is often isolated.
The appearances on the diplomatic stage are not the only points in which the two Brazilian presidential candidates differ fundamentally.
But these appearances show that the question of who will become president in Brazil has a major impact on the country's international cooperation and thus also on Germany and Europe.
Two opponents, two directions: “Lula” da Silva (left) is ahead in polls and relies on connecting elements in domestic and foreign policy in the election campaign.
Bolsonaro would probably be expected to be more isolated if he won.
© Roberto Casimiro/Mauro Pimentel/Imago/afp (Montage)
Brazil election: Two candidates, completely different styles of government
The election campaign in Brazil is currently in full swing.
On Sunday (October 2nd) the country with the seventh largest population in the world will elect a president - but also the parliament and the senate.
Current President Jair Bolsonaro and his 76-year-old challenger Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva have the best chances of becoming president.
The latter was President of Brazil from 2003 to 2010 and became internationally known, among other things, for his successful social policy and his fight against hunger in the country.
Four years ago, Lula wanted to be president again, but ended up in prison after a corruption scandal.
Jair Bolsonaro has ruled Brazil since 2018 and is now running for a second term.
While Lula, as a former trade unionist, comes from the more left-wing camp, Bolsonaro often attracts attention with populist statements and is considered to be right-wing extremist.
Both stand for styles of government that could hardly be more different.
While Lula has always been dialogue-oriented in the past, Bolsonaro regularly relies on confrontation and repeatedly alienates international partners.
Lula is, among other things, clearly the favored candidate in EU circles.
In addition to diplomatic relations, there are also specific issues on which Germany will feel differences in the coming years - depending on who governs Brazil.
also read
Ukraine sham referendums: Russia prefers the end to be able to announce the result earlier
Wild rumors about alleged China coup and President Xi Jinping: "Where is Xi?"
Deforestation in the Amazon peaked under Bolsonaro
One of the most important topics is the climate: "At first glance, Brazil seems far away," says Andreas Nöthen to the
Munich
newspaper IPPEN.MEDIA.
"But the Amazon is a key region for climate protection." Nöthen is a freelance journalist and has written several books about Brazil in recent years.
He is the author of a biography about Lula.
How Brazil acts in the coming years with regard to climate and environmental protection will have a direct impact on Germany and the climate here due to the enormous importance of the Amazon region.
Deforestation in Brazil reached new highs under Bolsonaro.
In addition, many international instruments for the protection of Amazonia have also been discontinued due to a lack of cooperation from Brazil.
This includes, for example, the Amazon fund for forest and climate protection, which was mainly financed by Norway, but also partly by Germany.
The reason for this was the sharp rise in deforestation rates.
If Brazil continues to deforest so much in the future, it will be difficult to achieve global climate targets.
Even if Bolsonaro regularly emphasizes that Brazil alone can decide what happens to the region.
Climate protection is not a major campaign issue in Brazil
In this context, it is exciting to see how different the perceptions of this challenge inside and outside of Brazil are.
While Amazonia is often the focus of the international discussion surrounding the Brazilian elections, climate protection tends to play a subordinate role in the local election campaign.
However, Lula and his Labor Party now have at least some of the issue on their radar.
However, climate protection is not the main focus for him either.
From a second term, Bolsonaro can be expected to continue ruthless deforestation for “Amazon economic development” and make few compromises on climate policy.
If the next Brazilian President is named Lula, the international community can count on greater willingness to cooperate.
It is also likely that former cooperation programs will be resumed.
Bolsonaro's further term in office could make trade with Brazil more difficult
Economic relations with Brazil are also affected by who becomes the next president.
Many companies have their branches in Latin America around the megacity of São Paulo.
According to Nöthen, Brazil's economic relevance could increase in the future.
"Brazil could also be a strategic partner in terms of new raw materials," he says.
The author thus refers to the current gas shortage and the search for further gas sources.
With Jair Bolsonaro's second term in office, however, it is difficult to imagine that heads of state would try to establish new trade relations in this area, because the right-wing populist does not appear to be a reliable partner.
"One can expect further isolation and alienation from multilateralism from Bolsonaro in the international environment," says Brazil expert Nöthen.
Lula, on the other hand, has traveled a lot internationally in the past and has actively relied on cooperation.
It can be assumed that he would do this again in a new term of office.
"Many governments have much better access to Lula than to Bolsonaro," explains Nöthen.
Brazil election: Lula fights poverty, Bolsonaro fights communism
In the election campaign, Lula is primarily committed to fighting inequality and poverty.
In recent years, the pandemic and the economic recession have caused poverty in the country to rise sharply again, and around 30 million Brazilians are starving.
That's why Lula wants to boost both social programs and the economy.
"Bolsonaro is doing a kind of anti-election campaign," says Nöthen.
He presents himself as either a fighter against communism or socialism and advocates that Brazil “not become a second Cuba”.
In addition, the current president repeatedly advocates the defense of conservative values and the traditional family.
"These are many topics from the evangelical milieu," says Nöthen.
No wonder, since the evangelical Pentecostal churches are among Bolsonaro's biggest supporters.
About IPPEN.MEDIA:
The IPPEN.MEDIA network is one of the largest online publishers in Germany.
At the locations in Berlin, Hamburg/Bremen, Munich, Frankfurt, Cologne, Stuttgart and Vienna, journalists from our central editorial office research and publish for more than 50 news offers.
These include brands such as Münchner Merkur, Frankfurter Rundschau and BuzzFeed Germany.
Our news, interviews, analyzes and comments reach more than 5 million people in Germany every day.
Basically, according to Nöthen, Bolsonaro is taking a combative, confrontational course.
"Lula, on the other hand, has chosen a much more forgiving approach that puts more focus on social aspects such as fighting poverty and protecting the environment," explains the journalist.
During the election campaign, the ex-president repeatedly emphasizes how important it is to take everyone with us and bring the country back together - similar to what Joe Biden propagated in the US election campaign.
And just like in the United States, that will not be an easy task in Brazil either.