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Expert warns at "hard but fair": Partial mobilization could become "mobilization of millions".

2022-09-27T10:44:36.832Z


Expert warns at "hard but fair": Partial mobilization could become "mobilization of millions". Created: 09/27/2022, 12:33 p.m "Hard but fair": moderator Frank Plasberg discusses with his guests. © ARD Mediathek (Screenshot) "In every war there is a turning point," says Frank Plasberg. But the group is not convinced that Putin's partial mobilization is such a turning point. Berlin – Russia's ru


Expert warns at "hard but fair": Partial mobilization could become "mobilization of millions".

Created: 09/27/2022, 12:33 p.m

"Hard but fair": moderator Frank Plasberg discusses with his guests.

© ARD Mediathek (Screenshot)

"In every war there is a turning point," says Frank Plasberg.

But the group is not convinced that Putin's partial mobilization is such a turning point.

Berlin – Russia's ruler Vladimir Putin is mobilizing part of the Russian population to eliminate the deficit in soldiers after heavy losses in the Ukraine war.

This "partial mobilization" was exactly what "Hart aber fair" was about with moderator Frank Plasberg and his guests.

Journalist Udo Lielischkies, for example, sees the partial mobilization that the Russian President has called for more as a “wake-up call”.

He warns of what will happen "when these tons of badly trained volunteers come along".

Military expert Claudia Major takes a similar view: "Mobilization will have little effect in the short term." The recruits first have to be trained.

In addition, they would arrive in Ukraine no earlier than early 2023.

But Major also warns against misinterpretations: This partial mobilization is significantly larger than assumed.

Putin set the signal: "I can longer than you".

For the former diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger, Putin "took personal risks".

So far, the war has been “rather big cinema for many Russians”.

"You weren't affected yourself, you could stay out of it.

Now all of a sudden it's getting serious.” Ischinger is in line with Major.

The partial mobilization could soon become “a million mobilization.

Putin links his career to the course of the war.

"That makes it dangerous for him personally." SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert is also there, and he agrees with the two.

Putin thought he could achieve his military goals with a slender foot.

But now Russia is “internationally isolated”.

"Hard but fair": These guests discussed with Frank Plasberg

  • Serap Güler

    (CDU member of the Bundestag)

  • Wolfgang Ischinger

    (retired diplomat)

  • Kevin Kühnert

    (SPD General Secretary)

  • Udo Lielischkies

    (journalist, ARD)

  • Claudia Major

    (military expert)

And Putin's open nuclear threat?

"Is that just a bluff?" Plasberg wants to know.

The CDU MP Serap Güler cannot understand the fear: "The constant threat of nuclear weapons is actually his greatest weapon."

Lielischkies has the same opinion: "If someone like Kühnert warns, then the grist is on Putin's mill." The criticized himself rows back.

"I don't want to start with the counter-thesis now." And Major clarifies.

With a nuclear strike, Putin would risk "that the USA and the West become significantly more active in this war".

In addition to all the theory, she also has an eye on the concrete consequences: atomic bombs on targets in the middle of Europe - "then the security situation would be significantly worse for us."

Ukraine war in "Hard but fair": Güler doubts the effectiveness of sanctions

The threat of nuclear weapons is not the problem, says Güler, but: "To what extent can we enable Ukraine to negotiate with Putin from a position of strength." However, Güler doubts the effectiveness of the sanctions.

"It's not true that Putin is internationally isolated either." Plasberg intervened before she could elaborate on the thought or even finish her sentence.

"We'll clarify that in a moment, it's so complicated." Instead, he has a photo comparison of the German Panzerhaubitze 2000 and the Leopard tank shown.

But Kühnert picks up Güler's thread.

He feels wrongly attacked by her and Plasberg, although he actually has the same opinion, as he repeatedly emphasizes.

The SPD general talked himself into a rage: "Today we are again sitting together in a group in which the position of not automatically supplying western tanks is apparently already the pacifist outer wing," he complains.

"I'm in favor of arms deliveries!" he says loudly, but one has to "take into account that there are also people who find what we're doing far too much.

We have to show them why what we are doing is not harmful to international peace.

And we're talking about tanks here now, as if it were…” General excitement in the group.

Güler laughs: "Everyone here just wants to answer that." Kühnert sees himself pushed back into the outsider position: "I'm very happy to believe that they all want to answer that.

That's part of the problem." But Lielischkies provides Güler with fire protection and warns Kühnert: "You're not a backbencher now, you're the Secretary General!" Meanwhile, Güler sardonically reminds "of the 5,000 helmets that we wanted to deliver".

For them it is clear who is the brake: "The Greens want to deliver weapons,

the FDP wants.

It is mainly the SPD that causes problems here.”

Major wants all weapons working together and "in the very best world with air support"

Peace only returns when the military expert major compares the individual weapon systems in detail.

Conclusion of the expert: You need the self-propelled howitzer as well as the infantry fighting vehicle.

Only the two of them working together could shoot the Russian positions ready for an assault, "in the very best world with air support".

Sanctions researcher Erdal Yalçin also provides background information.

In a one-on-one interview, the professor of international economic relations explains that Russia is also affected by the sanctions, not just the West.

However, 1,400 political conflicts have been sanctioned in the past 70 years, and the result is sobering.

"The effect of sanctions as a panacea is too naïve to expect," says Yalçin.

"We are export world champions, that will hit us hard."

But the world has become much "smaller" for Putin, says Plasberg.

"If he wants to go somewhere, he actually only meets autocrat buddies." And if Germany now accepts Russian deserters with open arms, that could possibly be a "tear in Putin's empire."

Güler qualifies: "Not every deserter is a dissident." In addition, the situation is already tense: "Germany has taken in 1.3 million Ukrainian refugees, I would like to remind you of that."

"Hard but fair": conclusion of the talk

If everyone is of the same opinion, the evening will run harmoniously and the only arguments will be about details.

Tank yes or tank no?

This is one of the reasons why this talk was rather soft, but fair.

(Michael Goermann)

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2022-09-27

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