After the general election on September 25, Italy, a founding member of the European Union and the third largest economy, is about to have the most right-hand coalition government since World War II.
Right-wing politicians from Hungary, Poland, Sweden, France, Spain and other countries have congratulated Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the Italian Fraternal Party (FdI) with neo-fascist origins, seeing it as the dawn of a new era of right-wing in Europe .
In contrast, members of France's Emmanuel Macron's government, and even Germany's Olaf Scholz's coalition government, have also expressed concerns indirectly or directly about the rise of the far-right in Italy.
Italy's right wing, formerly dominated by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's Forza (FI) party, was overtaken after the 2018 election by Matteo Salvini, who once advocated independence for northern Italy, who led the party. The League party (Lega) and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) formed a government at that time, which was the first populist government for a major European Union country.
In 2018, the fraternal party won only 4% of the vote.
If it was said at the time that the party would govern in four years, it was probably beyond everyone's imagination.
The Brotherhood was founded in 2012, but its background can be traced back to the Italian Social Movement (MSI) formed in 1946 by Benito Mussolini's legacy supporters after World War II.
This type of political undercurrent has a long history in European countries and has always been outside the mainstream politics.
Traditionally, mainstream political parties and voters in various countries have the so-called "cordon sanitaire", which regards cooperation with extremist forces as an absolutely insurmountable boundary.
However, in recent years, this line of defense has been continuously attacked: Marine Le Pen of the French traditional far-right "National Rally" (RN, formerly known as "National Front") has twice entered the presidential runoff, and now has become a member of the Congress The largest single opposition party; Spain's far-right Voice Party (Vox) has also begun to join the coalition government of the traditional center-right People's Party (PP) on local governance; the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD), which has also been on the political fringes for three decades, After this month's general election, it has become the largest right-wing party and the second largest party in the country, and has been accepted by a number of traditional right-wing parties, kicking the original left-wing coalition government out of office.
Marine Le Pen has always been a representative of the far-right in Europe. Now that Melloni has won the election as the first far-right leader of a major European power, Le Pen's position may be replaced by the latter.
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And the Central European countries under the control of the former Soviet Union.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who upholds the traditional values of Christianity, opposes LGBTQ rights, and emphasizes the purity of the Hungarian nation, has been in power since 2010 and won the election for the fourth time this year. It was classified as an "electoral autocracy" by the European Parliament and lost the recognition of a democratic country.
At the same time, Poland has also been governed by the Law and Justice Party (PiS), which holds a so-called "illiberal democracy" similar to Orban since 2015.
This election result in Italy is yet another peak of this kind of European far-right trend.
Meloni's fraternal party has been in opposition for the past four years and has not accompany Salvini and Beronsconi to the grand coalition government led by former Prime Minister Mario Draghi, thus winning popular support against the government.
In this election, the Brothers won 26% of the vote and became the clear leader of the three parties in the right-wing coalition, while Salvini's Alliance and Beronsconi's Forza each got about 8% of the vote.
Orban has become synonymous with "pro-Russian".
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The far right in Europe tends to have a strongman complex and tends to see Russian President Vladimir Putin as the guardian of Europe's traditional Christian values when challenged by liberals.
At this moment, the Italian regime has been handed over from Draghi, who has been leading Europe's sanctions policy against Russia, to Meloni, who has almost no governance experience. People are worried about whether this change will affect Europe's united front against Russia.
After Meloni's victory, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, who has always represented Europe's pro-Russian voice, once again publicly stated that he believes that European sanctions against Russia are "counterproductive", making Europeans poorer, but not Russia. Giving in, and referring to the fact that under this circumstance, it is no wonder that the governments of various European countries have fallen, and it seems to be a deliberate echo of Meloni's victory.
One of Orbán's aides, the Italian right-wing coalition that will come to power after Meloni's victory, is "friends with a common philosophy".
However, on top of its position on Russia, Meloni's new government will probably not change the direction of following the mainstream policies of Europe and the United States in the short term.
Melloni joined the neo-fascist youth organization in middle school, has no college degree, and has been on the fringes of mainstream politics all his life.
Analysis believes that many Italians are disappointed with mainstream politicians. In 2018, they elected the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the far-right Alliance Party respectively, and now electing a fraternal party to govern is just a natural development of the same trend.
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Although Salvini has always opposed Italy's arms shipment to Ukraine, and has publicly questioned sanctions against Russia, Beronsconi, who had a close relationship with Putin during his previous administration, recently said that Putin "just" wanted to replace Zelensky and Putin. The "special military operation" was "forced" by the Russian people, but Meloni himself took a tough stance on Russia after the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, expressed his support for NATO, and criticized Russia's invasion as a "savage attack." ”, and also supported Draghi’s policy direction during his tenure, such as sending arms to Ukraine.
After the fraternal party has clearly become the largest force on the right and has left its two allies far away, Salvini and Beronsconi believe that they will not turn against Meloni in the short term because of the issue of their Russia policy. .
Beronsconi is now nearly 86 years old, and it is not bad to join the government again, and it is difficult to seize power within the right wing.
As the first person on the "former" right wing, Salvini still has political ambitions to become prime minister. However, under his leadership, the Coalition Party's votes fell by half, and the vote rate was only a quarter of its high public opinion. The party's position is not necessarily stable, let alone Meloni who wants to challenge the fraternal party.
Of course, the voters of the Brotherhood and even the entire right-wing alliance are more inclined to sympathize with Russia than Italian voters, so it is unknown whether Meloni will suddenly turn around after taking office.
However, there are at least two reasons for us to be certain that such a turn is unlikely.
Salvini's popular support has been lost in a big way to Meloni.
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For one, Italy's most pressing problems are inflation, high national debt and the winter energy crisis.
Even if Italy turns to be pro-Russian, it will not change the direction of the Ukrainian war. It will only damage the relationship between Italy, France, Germany and other EU countries and the United States, which is not worth the loss.
At present, the EU holds nearly 200 billion euros in allocations to the Italian Recovery Fund. If Meloni does not fully follow the reform plan left by Draghi, there is a risk of being blocked by the EU at any time.
(Hungary is being "punished" over EU funding.)
Above the EU level, not all right-wing governments are also pro-Russian.
For example, Poland's Law and Justice Party is an anti-Russian pioneer, and the Italian Brotherhood is also in the same party group as the Law and Justice Party in the European Parliament; and the Sweden Democrats, which has just become the second largest party in Sweden, also supports Sweden's entry into NATO and European opposition. Russian sanctions.
Barring a major change, Meloni probably won't be Orban's "friend" on Russia's stance.
Second, when the right-wing populist government cannot solve practical problems, it uses ideological issues to incite supporters to retain power and distract attention, which is almost a development that has already been written.
In Italy, the Brotherhood and its right-wing allies already have issues of anti-immigration, anti-LGBTQ rights, and anti-abortion.
Coalition's Salvini is said to be seeking the post of interior minister to recreate his previous policy of refusing to accept boats of refugees in the Mediterranean in the same post - it shows that the pro-Russian figure in the new government has not The Russia-Ukraine issue is a priority.
However, since the Brotherhood and Meloni are an "unknown" in Italian and European politics, they have no track record, and their administration will also break the German-French-Italian leadership axis for Europe and Russia over the past six months. , so the coming of this right-wing government will in any case add another uncertain variable to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
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