First, let’s talk about the serious losses caused by the war to Russia and related parties. There are three main points:
First, the war has made Russia the most thoroughly weakened and isolated political, economic, military, diplomatic and other aspects since the end of the Cold War. In addition to the military losses on the frontal battlefield, Western sanctions will lead to a further weakening of Russia’s national strength, which will appear similar to the world’s average technological level. If there is a bigger fault, at least in the next 10-20 years, it will be difficult for Russia's economy and people's livelihood to turn around.
In addition, Russia has also been expelled from some international organizations, and its international status and influence have been significantly reduced.
Second, the war had a great impact on world peace, stability and development, leading to the disintegration and collapse of the Yalta system in Central and Eastern Europe after the war. While the war consolidated the unity of the United States and the West, it also intensified the division and confrontation between China and the West. The world has accelerated into a "new cold war" pattern.
Economically, because Russia and Ukraine are both important exporters of raw materials and grains in the world, the war has also pushed up the international prices of raw materials, posing a huge threat to the security of the world economy, food and industrial chains.
Third, the outcome and substance of the war, beyond Putin's surprise, cemented the alliance and hegemonic system of the United States.
The United States became the biggest beneficiary of the war, Ukraine and Europe were the opposite.
In addition to satisfying the interests of the U.S. arms and energy business, the war has weakened Russia as a military competitor, and it has also severely weakened Europe’s already extremely limited strategic autonomy. The hardship of destroying the country.
People fleeing the war in Ukraine rest at a refugee center.
(AP Photo/Petros Giannakouris)
As Yan Xuetong, dean of the Institute of International Relations of Tsinghua University, recently wrote in the Foreign Affairs magazine, the war also brought huge commercial losses to China, exacerbated tensions between China and Europe and some neighboring countries, and pushed China to a higher level. Dilemma where it is difficult to grasp the balance.
After the war, Russia and its proxies of interest tried to drag China into the fire pit of the war. The far-right conservative forces in the West also tried to tie China and Russia to the opposite side of the international community, and took the opportunity to promote the "decoupling" between the West and China. To achieve its goal of isolating China, China needs a particularly stable strategic focus and a particularly superb balance ability to avoid being "dragged into the water" by any party - in fact, China has also done it, which is not easy!
The above is an analysis of the consequences of war based on a current or short-term perspective.
From a longer historical dimension, it is another matter.
From a long historical perspective that escapes the limitations of the current vision and the foundation of the international order, and puts this war into the history of Russian territorial expansion since the 15th century, launching this war is of great importance to Russia's territorial and interests expansion. Might be worth it.
In order to justify launching the war, Russia named the war a "special military operation" in order to "denazify" and "demilitarize" Ukraine, but putting aside these superficial political terms, its essence It is an aggressive war for the purpose of occupying Ukrainian territory (inciting the four Ukrainian states into Russia to fully expose this purpose).
On April 24, 2022, the referendum on joining Russia was held in the Russian-controlled city of Luhansk, Ukraine.
(AP)
"While you are sick, you will die", while the opponent is weak, first create chaos and controversy in the opponent's territory, and then take advantage of the chaos, through military occupation, and then incite the independence of the occupied area, and then annex it into the territory. It is the most skilled territorial expansion method of Tsarist Russia for hundreds of years, and China has a deep pain in it.
Since the 15th century, Tsarist Russia has continuously expanded its territory to the periphery through similar methods, becoming the largest country in the world with an area of more than 17 million square kilometers across Europe and Asia.
Peter I, Catherine and other most influential tsars in Russian history, not because of their achievements in the modernization process of the Russian country or the construction of economic and people's livelihood, without exception, all because of their reign During this period, he frequently instigated wars, expanded territories, and left a reputation in Russian history.
Although the Ukrainian war is the product of the conflicts and conflicts of interests between Russia and the United States and Europe in the past 30 years, it has a complex background of the times.
However, as long as you are not trapped by your own value preferences and have sufficient historical insight, you can see that it is just a new chapter added by the "new czar" Putin to this historical script. .
Although the Russian army has suffered heavy losses in Ukraine since the outbreak of the war, the performance of various inaccuracies is shocking, the level of military decision-making of the Russian military command and the General Staff is unbelievable, and the economy and people's livelihood have suffered heavy losses due to US and European sanctions. From the perspective of nation-state expansion, judging by the value of the Russians, these seem to be necessary “costs” of expansion.
The first tsar Ivan IV in Russian history.
(Wikimedia Commons)
Throughout history, it can be found that since Russia embarked on the process of expansion, similar scenarios are not uncommon.
For hundreds of years, from the short-term perspective of the contemporary era, Russia has often suffered heavy losses in foreign wars, but from a long-term historical perspective, it has always relied on Russia's national resilience and sacrifice to bring down its opponents first and drag them to death. , and finally achieved the goal of territorial expansion at a painful price.
One will succeed, let alone a tsar, an empire.
In the history of China and foreign countries, which emperor or empire did not have mountains of blood and tears piled up under the pedestal?
Isn't the process of imperialization of the United Kingdom and the United States also based on piles of bones?
Therefore, in terms of benefits, Russia’s benefits must first penetrate history, and can only be fully understood from the super-long horizon of a nation or empire spanning hundreds or even thousands of years, and it is this kind of historical penetrating ability that ordinary people lack.
Of course, whether this aggressive expansion is in line with modern human values and the international legal order is another matter.
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