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Photo taken from a Danish F16 plane: traces of the gas leak in the Baltic Sea
Photo: Danish Defense Command / HANDOUT / EPA
Although they no longer play a role in the gas supply, the focus is currently on the Nord Stream gas pipelines: On Monday, the gas pressure suddenly dropped in both pipelines within a few hours;
a total of three leaks were discovered.
What's it all about? The overview of the gas leaks and the possible consequences.
What happened?
Both German-Russian gas pipelines through the Baltic Sea have been struggling with pressure problems since the beginning of the week.
The transmission system operator Gascade has a measuring station at the landing point of the Baltic Sea pipeline in Lubmin (Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania);
rapidly falling values were registered there.
After Nord Stream 2 on Monday night, its older sister pipeline Nord Stream 1 also reported a pressure drop late Monday evening.
Through this pipeline, Russia delivered natural gas to Germany until August 31.
In the case of Nord Stream 2, Danish authorities identified a leak southeast of the island of Bornholm as the likely cause.
Nord Stream 2 is finished, but was never put into operation because of the Russian attack on Ukraine, but was only filled with gas once.
A seismic measuring station on Bornholm registered two events, one early Monday morning at 2:03 a.m. and another in the evening at 7:04 p.m.
The experts rule out earthquakes as the source of the registered noises (read more about this here).
As the Danish newspaper "Jyllands-Posten" reported, citing the Danish military, the leak on Nord Stream 2 was discovered by Danish F-16 fighter jets.
They were therefore sent into the air from the island of Bornholm to photograph the area.
They had discovered that at a point south-east of the island bubbles had risen from the water.
The damage is apparently greater than initially assumed.
According to SPIEGEL information, the lines must have been torn open over a longer length.
The "explosive drop in pressure" in the pipelines could not be explained otherwise, according to government officials.
According to SPIEGEL information, the United States had warned the federal government weeks ago of possible attacks on gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea.
Accordingly, a corresponding tip from the US secret service CIA was received in Berlin in the summer.
How does the federal government assess the case?
The federal government does not rule out an attack.
An insider told SPIEGEL that three of the four strands of the pipeline were damaged.
Don't believe in coincidence.
It could be an attack to provoke uncertainty on the European gas markets.
According to SPIEGEL information, the safety concepts of other pipelines and gas supply systems are now being checked at high pressure.
How are other countries reacting?
Crisis teams were convened in Denmark and Sweden.
Several ministries and authorities are involved, Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde told the Aftonbladet newspaper.
The Danish Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod contacted them, virtual meetings are planned for the evening.
When asked exactly what happened, she said, "I don't want to speculate about it.
You have to be very sure of what happened and how it affects our safety.«
In neighboring Denmark, representatives of several authorities also gathered in the national operational staff to discuss how to deal with the leaks.
The Danish National Police announced this to the broadcaster DR.
"A coincidence is hard to imagine," said Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.
The Prime Minister visited Budno in Poland on Tuesday, where a new pipeline from Norway via Denmark and through the Baltic Sea to Poland was inaugurated.
In the late evening, the Danish government spoke of "deliberate acts", Sweden of "sabotage".
Several detonations were observed at a depth of up to 80 meters.
Sweden wants to have “military resources” ready.
Poland ruled out an accident in the leaks: "We don't yet know the details of what happened there, but we can clearly see that there was an act of sabotage," said Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
Ukraine became clearer: "The large-scale 'gas leak'
at
Nord Stream 1 is nothing more than a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression against the EU," wrote Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podoliak on Twitter.
What does Russia say?
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said they were "very alarmed" and did not rule out sabotage.
Peskow called the case "unprecedented" and "dangerous for the whole continent" - and called for urgent clarification.
'Apparently there's a line disruption.
And what the reason for this is – you cannot rule out any variant until the results of the investigations come out.«
In the Russian media, too, there is talk above all of targeted sabotage.
The Ukraine or the USA are named as responsible.
"Only the USA has an economic interest in it," the newspaper "Izvestia" quoted the deputy head of the National Energy Institute, Alexander Frolov.
As a result of the leaks, the European Union is losing an opportunity to secure its energy supply and is now all the more dependent on the USA.
Are the leaks dangerous?
At least directly above the gas leaks, it is dangerous for ships.
According to the Danish Energy Agency, they may lose buoyancy if they enter the area.
There is also a risk of ignition.
There is no danger outside the zone, not even for the residents of Bornholm and the small neighboring island of Christiansø.
The Danish shipping authority has set up appropriate restricted zones for shipping traffic.
How much gas was in the damaged pipelines?
Hundreds of millions of cubic meters.
However, nobody knows how much of it has already escaped.
According to its operating company, Nord Stream 2 was filled with gas last winter: according to SPIEGEL calculations, each of the two lines could have contained around 135 million cubic meters.
According to previous information, a tube is damaged.
At Nord Stream 1, the damage could be even greater.
Most recently, the two strands were each filled with an estimated 190 million cubic meters of natural gas - and according to the operating company, leaks were discovered in both tubes.
In total, it is about 500 million cubic meters of gas.
This is how much Germany consumes on average in two days.
Based on the current prices on the EU gas market, this volume has a market value of more than 800 million euros.
Who owns the gas?
According to an insider, the gas in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline belongs to the operator himself: Nord Stream 2 AG in Zug, Switzerland.
Its 100 percent shareholder is the Russian state monopoly Gazprom.
Nord Stream 2 AG laid off all employees in Zug in March, but did not file for bankruptcy.
The company is highly indebted, and a trustee appointed by the court is to check whether restructuring is still possible.
If large amounts of gas are now lost, this could mean the final end for Nord Stream 2 AG.
According to a market expert, the gas in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline most likely belongs to the injecting company, i.e. Gazprom.
The Russian state monopoly would then also have to bear the losses from the leak.
Are the pipelines sealed forever now?
Whether the pipelines will ever go back into operation is an open question.
If the leaks are not too big, experts say they can be repaired.
But it could get expensive.
The question is who commissions the repairs - and pays for them.
In the case of Nord Stream 2, it is highly unlikely that Gazprom will now invest any significant sums in the restoration, as the federal government has repeatedly ruled out the commissioning of this line.
With Nord Stream 1, the chances are higher.
Natural gas continued to flow through the twin tubes until the end of August;
According to Gazprom, technical problems are said to be responsible for the current delivery stop.
The Russian state monopoly is the majority owner of Nord Stream 1;
other shareholders are energy groups from Germany (Wintershall and Eon), the Netherlands (Gasunie) and France (Engie).
It is unclear whether the supplier or his customers would be interested in restarting.
What do the pipeline damages mean for the gas supply in Germany?
In the short term, they do not affect European gas supplies at all: Gazprom stopped all gas flows through Nord Stream 1 weeks ago.
Nevertheless, prices on Europe's gas exchanges have recently fallen - and storage levels have risen in many places, especially in Germany.
The levels are likely to drop again in the course of autumn when it gets colder and more heating is used.
Unless it gets extremely cold or there are major supply disruptions, for example from Norway or the USA, a gas shortage in Germany this winter is unlikely from today's perspective.
This is also due to the fact that the first three floating liquefied natural gas terminals should also start operating around the turn of the year.
Should Russia no longer deliver anything at all, things could possibly get tight again in the winter of 2023/24.
The fact that the reservoirs are currently so well filled is also due to the fact that Gazprom exported significant quantities of natural gas to Europe this year, especially in the first few months after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Is gas now becoming even more expensive for end consumers?
That's not clear yet.
In European wholesale, prices rose again noticeably on Tuesday after a week-long downward trend.
A megawatt hour of natural gas for delivery in October cost around 185 euros on the Dutch reference market at around 5 p.m. CEST, a good six percent more than on Monday.
It is unclear whether this is the start of a sustained rise in prices.
With material from dpa and AFP
