Potential for escalation not seen for many years Israel today

The public is deep in the holiday fever, but the reality of vacations and recreation currently depends on containment, or more precisely - on the quality of intelligence of the Shin Bet and the countermeasures professionalism of the IDF forces and the police.

This activity comes to the public's attention only when extraordinary events occur, such as the activity carried out yesterday in the Jenin refugee camp, in which four Palestinian militants were killed, two of whom are wanted.

In this case as well, accurate intelligence from the Shin Bet brought the soldiers of the undercover unit of the Border Guard to the hideout apartment of the wanted persons; in the raid, a large explosive device was used on the forces, which, if it had been planted in Israel, could have caused many casualties.

The raid in Jenin was carried out in broad daylight for two reasons.

The first: intelligence-operational.

The information indicated that the wanted persons were going to try to carry out another shooting attack against Israeli vehicles or IDF positions already last night - similar to the attacks they had already carried out recently. Therefore, it was necessary to act to arrest or terminate them immediately.

IDF soldiers in Jenin, photo: AFP

The second reason was deterrent.

The terrorists in the camp are convinced that the IDF will operate mainly in the dark, because of the advantage it has in means and technology. The activity during the day - when the camp is awake and active, and apparently also more dangerous - is intended to show that Israel is not afraid of friction, but on the contrary: it seeks it, so as not to allow those wanted immunity.

As in previous cases in recent weeks, this time too some of the dead were active members of the Palestinian security apparatus.

This shows two phenomena that have been troubling Israel for a long time, but are escalating at a dangerous rate.

The first - the increasing loss of control of the Palestinian Authority in northern Samaria.

Jenin (and its refugee camp) were the first to declare independence, and anarchy is rapidly spreading south, towards Nablus, and further - to Ramallah and beyond.

Yesterday's violence was directed towards the Israeli forces, but in many cases it is directed inward - towards targets of the Palestinian Authority, which has difficulty (or is unable) to regain control of the territory.

An alternative to deterioration

The second phenomenon is the number of operatives in the Palestinian security forces, who participate in terrorist activities or shoot at IDF forces during arrests. This was highlighted yesterday in Jenin, when an operative of the forces tried to shoot at the forces and was killed. This phenomenon is disturbing not only because of the number of weapons in the hands of the forces and their quality, but Because it turns a colleague into a predator, and obliges the IDF and Shin Bet to treat every partner as a potential enemy.

A lot of weapons are circulating in the sector.

Palestinians with weapons, photo: AFP

Since Israeli-Palestinian cooperation has been proven to be essential for calming the area, it is necessary to use every possible means - political, economic or security - to restore it as soon as possible.

The alternative to this is the continuation of the deterioration, and an increase in the number of attack attempts and the scope of Israeli countermeasures in the Palestinian territory, which, as in the familiar cycle, will bring with it more casualties, and more attack attempts.

Evidence of this can be found in the scope of the warnings for terrorist attacks, which necessitates increasing the defensive and offensive effort in the West Bank and in the areas of the Green Line.

The coming weeks are particularly dangerous due to the holidays, the pilgrimages to Jerusalem and the concentration of vacationers and people.

That is why the IDF will increase its forces in Yosh, and the police will increase their forces in the city centers.

This effort, which was the focus of the assessment of the situation that Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi and the top of the Central Command held yesterday, is expected to intensify in the coming days, but it is doubtful whether it will curb the current trend of escalation.

For this purpose, large forces will be required from within the Palestinian Authority and outside of it, which do not seem to exist now.

The opposite is true: the factors active in the field are mostly negative, led by Hamas.

From this it is also possible to understand the rather gloomy assessment of the situation issued by Israeli intelligence on its various branches, according to which the Judea and Samaria region is now facing an explosive potential the likes of which we have not seen in many years.

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