From September 23 to 27, the referendum on the entry into Russia of the four Ukrainian states was "successfully concluded", and the results of the referendum "lived up to expectations". .
Compared with the referendum in 2014, the Russian side would still look for some seemingly neutral pro-Russian Europeans to watch the election. Now, it does not even want these facades, and uses soldiers to bring voting personnel to the door to ask people about their willingness to join Russia.
The color of "going through the motions" is so strong that at the UN Security Council meeting on the 27th, apart from Russia itself, no participating country (including China and India) expressed or implied that they would recognize the referendum result, not even the representatives of Kenya, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates and other countries. Also criticized.
A 'slapstick' referendum
The color of this referendum's "going through the motions" is too obvious.
One is its haste, with only two or three days between the announcement of the referendum and the start of the referendum.
The second is that Russian military personnel, on the basis of security reasons, went door to door with voting personnel to ask if they supported entering Russia. Although there are sometimes polling stations in various places, this approach obviously constitutes intimidation to voters.
Third, due to the war, many local residents have left their real estate and fled. For example, Mariupol, Donetsk, which was besieged by the Russian army for a long time, had a population of more than 400,000 before the war. Only less than 100,000 remain.
If only the remaining residents vote, even if the voting itself is fair and impartial, it is obviously not representative of the overall will of the residents in these areas.
Fourth, the Russian army did not have complete control over these four states.
Lugansk, which was conquered by the Russian army in July, is now being counterattacked by the Ukrainian army. Ukraine's progressive attack; only 60 percent of Donetsk's territory is under Russian control; Zaporizhzhia, even its local capital, remains firmly under Ukrainian control.
As of September 27, the Ukrainian battlefield situation map, the light blue part is the territory retaken by the Ukrainian army counterattack in the past two months.
At present, the land controlled by the Russian army accounts for about 15% of the territory of Ukraine.
(ISW)
Looking back at Crimea's "precedent", many people who believed that the 2014 referendum on membership in Russia was a "fake referendum" also agreed that if the referendum was conducted in a fair and just manner with the participation of international observers, the "removal of Ukraine into Russia" would not be possible. Options will also prevail.
The reason is that more than 75% of Crimea's population speaks Russian as their mother tongue. If the "predictable" logic of ethnic groups determines their intentions, their willingness to return to Russia should not be too controversial.
In contrast, in the four Ukrainian states in the referendum, the situation is very different.
Nearly 70% and 75% of the population of Luhansk and Donetsk in Udonbas (Donbas) speak Russian as their mother tongue respectively. The intention of these two separatist "republics" to enter Russia should be relatively clear. However, in the southern and central Kherson and Zaporozhye, more than 70% of the population and more than half of the population speak Ukrainian as their mother tongue. The two districts were merged into Russia in a "go-thru" style referendum, especially in this way. There is hardly any rationality under this kind of "imaginable" logic.
After the results of the referendum were announced, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described the referendum as a "farce".
By the very nature of the referendum as a referendum, it is hard to say that this assessment is not objective.
Putin's "advance to retreat"?
A more benign interpretation of Putin's intention to rush the referendum is that he is pursuing a "advance to retreat" policy.
On the occasion of announcing "partial mobilization" last week and at the previous SCO summit, Putin's definition of the goal of the war no longer talked about "demilitarization" and "denazification" at the beginning of the war, but instead The recapture of two Donbas states as its main objective.
In Luhansk, workers stood on a lifting platform and hung the Russian flag outside a Daqing.
(AP)
The positioning of this goal is obviously different from the sovereignty change in the four-state referendum.
This may be to create a condition for the potential future negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to let Ukraine step down - that is, to let Donbass return to Russia, but return Kherson and Zaporozhye, which have been put into Russia, to Ukraine.
Of course, it is basically impossible to negotiate now, provided that the outcome on the battlefield has an obvious situation of superiority and inferiority, so even if Russia wants to negotiate, it must first make a victory on the battlefield.
Public investment in Russia "goes through the motions" and also has its role in creating such results.
Legal annexation of four states for clear ambition?
Earlier, when the situation of the Ukrainian army's counterattack in southern Kherson became clear, the leader of the Russian-controlled area supported by Russia once indicated that the referendum would be postponed.
At that time, the Russian side probably still wanted to repeat the Crimea's referendum on membership in Russia, and at least some legitimate forms that could be reasonably justified existed.
However, at the beginning of last week, the sudden and urgent announcement of the Russian membership referendum by the four states at the same time actually showed a change in Moscow's policy - the rapid legalization of these areas into Russian territory is more important than the apparent legitimacy of the Russian membership referendum. .
One of the reasons for Ukraine's counter-offensive in recent months is to prevent the referendum on joining Russia.
The reasons for this are also clear: as Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian President and Vice-President of the Federal Security Council, said after the referendum was announced, when these regions are officially included in Russia, "there will be no future Russian leaders, no Officials were able to reverse those decisions."
After joining Russia, Russia will have an indefinite commitment and responsibility to preserve these "territories". Unless Ukraine is willing to cede territory, any political change will not leave room for Russia or Ukraine to resolve disputes on the battlefield.
From Putin's point of view, allowing the four Ukrainian states to enter Russia means that the war will continue until Ukraine admits defeat and is forced to cede territory and seek peace.
Putting Sizhou Gong into Russia is to show Ukraine and the European and American countries that are still willing to do their best to help Ukraine for the time being.
The question the latter has to answer is, do they have the same will as Putin?
Ukraine | The "overwhelming" victory in the referendum on joining Russia The four regions in the occupied territories will be merged into Russia's Nord Stream gas pipeline as soon as next week.
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