Zelensky sees a possible nuclear attack from Russia latent 0:53
Washington (CNN) --
US officials believe the likelihood of Russian President Vladimir Putin using a tactical nuclear weapon in his faltering war in Ukraine is perhaps the highest since Russia invaded in February, but it's not yet. likely, multiple officials familiar with the latest intelligence tell CNN.
The intelligence community is watching closely for any signs that Putin's calculus has changed after Russia's president was widely perceived last week to be escalating earlier threats to use nuclear weapons.
The threat is certainly "elevated" compared to earlier in the year, according to multiple sources.
In recent months, the United States has privately warned Russia against taking such a catastrophic step.
But so far, there is no sign that Russia is planning its use imminently and the "overall assessment has not changed," a source familiar with the intelligence said.
Several US defense officials, who also said they see no indication at this point that Russia is moving nuclear weapons, said they believe the US is likely to be able to detect the movement of even the most advanced tactical warheads. little.
Officials have long believed that Putin would only resort to a nuclear weapon if there was a threat to his own position, or if he perceived an existential threat to Russia itself, such as a loss in Ukraine.
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What are tactical nukes and what would happen if Russia deployed one?
Some Russian military analysts believe that Putin's mobilization order may actually lessen the short-term risk of his resorting to a nuclear weapon on the battlefield, because it will prolong his ability to sustain conventional warfare.
The general feeling within the US government that the threat is greater than before is based primarily on Putin's rhetoric and analysis of his mindset amid Russian defeats in Ukraine, rather than on any solid intelligence that indicates that Russia is weighing the nuclear option more seriously, according to two sources familiar with the intelligence.
For example, some officials worry that Putin may go to extreme measures to protect Russian-occupied territory in eastern Ukraine, amid sham referendums there that are expected to result in Russia's forcible annexation of the territory. Russia.
Putin also said last week that Russia's threats to deploy a nuclear weapon "are not a game."
Still, the intelligence community's view of Putin's decision-making calculus is flawed, and multiple sources acknowledged that even a marginally increased likelihood of the use of such weapons is concerning.
Russia's losses and Ukraine's relative success in its recent offensive in the northeast have left Moscow with a dwindling number of battlefield options.
"It's hard to know definitively if or when he would give that order," one of the sources said.
"Or how your own mental math works."
Little concern that Russia will use a "strategic" nuclear weapon
There is little concern that Russia will use what is known as a "strategic" nuclear weapon. These weapons are warheads that have explosive yields of 500 to 800 kilotons and are designed to destroy entire cities.
"Tactical" warheads, also known as "low-yield" warheads, are designed for use on the battlefield.
They have explosive yields of 10 to 100 kilotons of dynamite.
But they can still be unimaginably deadly: the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan in 1945 had the equivalent of about 15 and 21 kilotons, respectively.
Perhaps the most important distinction, according to some analysts, is how a warhead is used rather than its performance.
Some officials, such as former US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, believe that the distinction between "tactical" and "strategic" is meaningless.
The use of any of them would mean crossing a rubicon that has not been crossed since 1945.
Would Russia be willing to use nuclear weapons in a last-ditch attempt to win the war in Ukraine?
Officials familiar with intelligence say Putin has several options as to how he might choose to deploy such a weapon.
He could try one at sea as a show of strength and an effort to force concessions from the West or Ukraine.
Or he could use it inside Ukraine itself, either on the battlefield or in a population center, an option that several US officials say would make him an instant pariah on the world stage.
Some officials believe that even countries like China and India would move to isolate Russia if Putin took such a harsh step.
The US response would depend on Putin's election, President Joe Biden said in an interview with CBS's "60 Minutes" earlier this month.
The US reaction would be "consistent" but would depend "on the scope of what they do," Biden said, without elaborating.
In a speech last week, Putin warned that "in the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and in order to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapons systems at our disposal. This is not a play".
US officials have stressed that this is not the first time that Putin has threatened to resort to nuclear weapons since the start of his reinvasion of Ukraine in February, although some analysts have seen this threat as more specific and escalating than the Russian president's past rhetoric.
The United States has also tried to dissuade Russia from using a nuclear weapon in public warnings in the past and has made the issue a subject of remarks at the UN General Assembly this week in New York.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week that Russia's "reckless nuclear threats must cease immediately."
Nuclear weapons
