"Russian economy more robust than expected": Expert assesses sanctions - and names new Putin problem
Created: 09/30/2022 05:33
By: Maximilian Kettenbach, Andreas Schmid
The Russian economy appears to be recovering.
"It's stronger than the West expected," says expert Gerhard Mangott on Merkur.de.
However, current Kremlin plans could change the situation.
Munich/Innsbruck – The inflation rate in Russia was 14.3 percent in August, and the ruble seemed to be falling further and further after the Ukraine war.
The Russian central bank then eased its monetary policy.
The key interest rate fell by 0.5 percentage points to 7.5 percent in mid-September.
It was the sixth rate cut in a row and the ruble is now even stronger than before the war began.
Is the Russian economy weakened by the war or not?
"Russian economy is more robust than expected": Expert assesses sanctions
In an interview with Merkur.de
Gerhard Mangott, Professor of International Relations at the University of Innsbruck, sees economic deficits in the largest country on earth.
"Russia's economic growth has fallen by six percent, people are noticing the sanctions," says the 56-year-old, who says he has contacts as far afield as the Russian presidential office.
For Mangott, however, it is clear: "Putin will not end the war because of this."
The ruble is rolling?
At least the Russian economy seems “more resilient than expected,” a university professor tells us.
© IMAGO/Peter Seyfferth (montage)
The reason for this is, among other things, that inflation is falling "slowly" and unemployment remains "low".
"The Russian economy is more robust than many in the West expected." Germany is currently assuming an economic slump in Russia of up to 15 percent this year.
This emerges from a response from the Federal Ministry of Economics to the Left MP Sören Pellmann.
Gerhard Mangott, Professor of International Relations at the University of Innsbruck.
The Russia expert talks about Putin's domestic situation.
The Kremlin itself reports again and again how well Russia is economically positioned.
Researchers at Yale University see things differently.
In their study entitled “Companies withdrawing and sanctions are paralyzing the Russian economy”, they write that the consequences of the Ukraine war have also left their mark on Russia.
Regarding the claim that the Russian economy is doing well, it says: "This is simply not true."
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Mangott sees a large part of the Russian problem in Vladimir Putin's partial mobilization.
“It weakens the Russian economy enormously when 300,000 men have to go to the front.
If so many flee again, it will be clearly noticeable in the companies and thus in the effects on the Russian economy.”
There are few concrete figures on the Russians who have fled.
It should be tens of thousands.
However, British intelligence already sees more problems for Russia.
"Among those attempting to leave Russia, the better-off and well-educated are over-represented," London's Defense Ministry wrote on Thursday, citing intelligence findings.
If one also takes into account the conveners, the domestic economic effects should be enormous, it said.
The authority referred to the lower availability of workers and a rapid "brain drain", i.e. a loss of skilled workers in the technical sectors, for example.
Meanwhile, the German federal government wants to protect the German economy in the "energy war" with Russia with a "defensive umbrella".