The North Stream No. 1 and No. 2 pipelines, the energy artery affecting Russia and Europe, have been playing a mud war again: Russia bluntly said that the United States is the most suspicious, the United States retorted that Russia was spreading false news, Europe and Ukraine suspected that Russia was doing it, the former Polish foreign minister However, he typed the words "Thank you, America" on his personal social media platform, thanking the United States for the bombing.
Therefore, it is still unknown which country is responsible for this incident, and it may become a confused account forever.
However, according to the principle of "solving the case", who benefits the most and who is most suspected, the suspects in this incident are actually not wide, among which the United Kingdom and the United States are the most suspected.
The reason for getting such a judgment is that, first of all, we need to know the importance of energy supply to Europe to Russia and Europe, as well as the attitudes of relevant countries towards the war in Ukraine.
The Nord Stream No. 1 and No. 2 pipelines are the energy artery between Russia and Europe, as well as the economic lifeline of Russia. They are the most powerful tool for Russia to contain Europe, and it may be Putin's only effective tool against Europe at the moment.
Through energy exports to Europe, Russia not only transfused blood for wars and economic sanctions, but also stabilized the ruble by bundling energy exports with local currency payments. It also successfully "fished" Europe and stuck Germany, France and other countries by their necks, making Europe in aid Ukraine is sometimes afraid, creating split opinions between Europe and the United States and within Europe, creating conditions for future negotiations to end the war and lift sanctions.
European countries such as Germany have also eased the energy crisis by maintaining energy imports from Russia, reducing inflationary pressures.
Nord Stream Gas Pipeline: On September 27, 2022, turbulence occurred off the Danish island of Bornholm (Bornholm). Authorities said the incident may be related to the leak of a natural gas pipeline on the seabed.
(AP)
As a result, European countries, especially Germany, are becoming more and more passive in their support for the Ukrainian war. Ukraine, Poland, the United Kingdom, and the United States are very unhappy to see this trend.
Blowing up these two energy pipelines, destroying Russia's energy trump card, and at the same time breaking the idea of Germany (EU), has become a tactical choice that can achieve its purpose.
However, among these four countries, Ukraine is too weak to make such a big bet.
Because if it is revealed that Ukraine is the main envoy, Germany and Europe will definitely stop their military assistance to Ukraine, and Russia can finally find a decent reason for (expanding) the war.
For Ukraine, the risk is too great.
Moreover, given Ukraine's geographical location and the current state of scorching, there are no conditions to carry out such a difficult explosion.
The possibility of Poland is not high. Although Poland is the most active in assisting Ukraine and the least happy to Russia's territorial expansion, this is after all a war between Russia and Ukraine. It does not need to attack the energy facilities of Russia and the European Union. To marry, put yourself at risk of war and conflict.
Therefore, it is calculated that the United Kingdom and the United States are the most likely, and they will benefit the most from destroying these two pipelines.
Especially the United States, whether people like to admit it or not, the United States is the biggest beneficiary of this war. In addition to satisfying the interests of the US arms and energy business, the war has weakened Russia, a military competitor, and accelerated the East and West that the United States hopes to promote. The decoupling process has also seriously weakened Europe's already very limited strategic autonomy, deepened Europe's economic and security dependence on the United States, and consolidated the United States' hegemony.
Firefighters put out a fire in a warehouse after a Russian bombing in Kharkiv, Ukraine.
(AP)
At the same time, these two countries are also capable of carrying out such highly difficult acts of sabotage.
However, because of the status of the United States in Western countries and the nature of the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom, it may not be as big as the United Kingdom when it is directly bombed by the United States.
Although the United Kingdom is an independent country, it largely plays the role of the United States' agent in European affairs.
Looking back at the history after World War II, we know that some of the things that are inconvenient for the United States to do are mostly done by the United Kingdom.
And the interests of the United Kingdom itself and the United States in this war are highly overlapping.
The newly appointed Liz Truss also needs to hand over a better "answer sheet" than Johnson to the US's attitude towards the war.
Moreover, this method of detonation on the seabed also has many similarities with the usual British "murder" method.
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