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Merkel's appeal collided with the ruined Nord Stream, can European independence be saved?

2022-09-30T04:12:48.700Z


On September 27, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivered a speech at the opening ceremony of the Chancellor Helmut Kohl Foundation, calling on Western countries to seriously


On September 27, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivered a speech at the opening ceremony of the Chancellor Helmut Kohl Foundation, calling on Western countries to take Russian President Vladimir Putin's remarks seriously.


Merkel's remarks refer to Putin's public speech on September 21.

At that time, in addition to announcing war mobilization and holding a referendum on Ukraine's accession to Russia, he also strongly stated in his speech that if Russia's territorial integrity is threatened, Moscow will use "all means to defend Russia and our people", and nuclear weapons are also an option. one.

In this regard, Merkel pointed out that don't think Putin's remarks are bluffs, and taking seriously is not a sign of weakness, but a symbol of political wisdom, which helps to reserve space for action or new strategies.

In addition, Merkel was asked how Kerr would respond if the conflict in Ukraine broke out during the tenure of former Prime Minister Kohl.

Merkel replied that Cole would "do everything possible to protect and restore Ukraine's sovereignty and integrity" as Kyiv tried to push back the Russians, but at the same time looked forward to "the next day", with "unimaginable concerns" at the moment. ” and to explore “how to rebuild relations with Russia one day” after the conflict is over.

A Russian officer checks the temperature of recruits as they check in at a recruiting center in Volgograd, Russia, on September 24, 2022.

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the mobilization of some reservists on the 21st to strengthen the Russian military's military operations in Ukraine.

(AP)

Merkel's true intentions

In all fairness, Merkel's speech seemed to discuss Cole's position, but in fact it relied on Cole to express her opinions directly, and was in line with her call to "don't underestimate Putin's speech."

First of all, the so-called Cole will "make every effort to protect and restore Ukraine's sovereignty and integrity" is Merkel's "self-clearing" performance, which is intended to demonstrate her attachment to the political correctness of the West, while implicitly responding to the outside world's so-called "appeasement" Russian criticism.

After all, on the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian war, supporting Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and condemning Russia for violating international law are generally politically correct in European and American political circles and societies, and Merkel obviously has no intention of challenging this mainstream view.

However, focusing on the operation of real politics, Merkel's original intention remains unchanged, that is, to save Europe's independence.

The reason why it called on all parties to "not underestimate Putin's speech" is not just about worrying about Moscow's nuclear adventure, but because Russia is desperate.

In his view, now Putin has seen the national movement for the Russian-Ukrainian war, and at the same time put his political life on the line. Under this state of mind, unless Putin successfully "liberates Donbas" or is removed from power in a coup, the Russian army will continue to fight fiercely. , until the last drop of blood was shed.

During this period, the Russian people will suffer, but the Ukrainian people will suffer several times more, and the political agenda of Europe will also be severely dominated by the United States.

It is because of this judgment that Merkel has a disagreement with the vast majority of Western political elites.

For the United States, the Ukrainian battlefield is very far away from itself, and Europe bears the brunt of high electricity prices, high inflation and even the energy crisis.

Washington's intention here is to bleed Russia through this war, while deepening its domination over Europe, dismantling the European order structure dominated by Germany and France in the past, and renewing the life of the already brain-dead NATO, allowing Emmanuel Macron. The European Army proposal by Macron et al. was stillborn.

In short, with the strategic purpose of weakening Russia and disintegrating European unity, the United States wants the war to last, even if it is "to the last Ukrainian".

Russian recruits (back to the camera) preparing to enlist on September 24, 2022, board a bus at a military recruitment center in Volgograd, Russia, and hug and kiss their wives before leaving.

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the mobilization of some reservists on the 21st to strengthen the Russian military's military operations in Ukraine.

(AP)

The European political elites are not ignorant of this, but firstly, they are trapped in political correctness and cannot go against the general public opinion sympathetic to Ukraine; secondly, they are trapped in historical complexes and cannot overcome their geographical fear of Russia; thirdly, they are intentional To break free from the structural constraints after World War II, Germany, for example, changed its stance during Merkel's period, provided military assistance to Ukraine, and took advantage of this to shout the slogan of military expansion, apparently intending to imitate Japan's "national normalization".

Various factors have made Europe's independent position disappear, gradually "returning to the same destination" with Washington, and ultimately can only be tied to a self-destructing chariot and become Washington's strategic ban along with Ukraine.

Against this trend, Merkel's position appears "out of place".

Although it also has the burden of political correctness, compared with the European political elites of the same era, Merkel's foreign policy is strongly pragmatic, and she always insists that Europe must go its own way.

Under this strategic plan, Merkel does not shy away from contacting or even cooperating with Russia, because this is the only way to hedge the influence of the United States on the European continent.

This has been the case for more than ten years in power in the past, and now it is also the same in the face of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Therefore, the so-called Cole will look forward to "the next day", be open to the "unimaginable" events at the moment, and explore "how to rebuild relations with Russia one day", etc. In fact, Merkel's strategic vision is pinned.

To put it more directly, it is to call on Europe to take a long-term plan, not to be limited by the burden of political correctness, to support Ukraine without ceiling in the Russian-Ukrainian war, to sacrifice the relationship between Europe and Russia, and even to destroy the geopolitical framework of using Russia to hedge against American domination.

On June 9, 2018, at the Group of Seven (G7) summit held in Canada, a photographer captured Merkel confronting then-US President Trump. tension.

(AP)

The Fall of Nord Stream and European Mediation

However, on the same day Merkel delivered the speech, an event took place that severely thwarted the possibility of European autonomy.

On September 27, Beixi No. 1 and No. 2 pipelines were damaged successively, resulting in the leakage of a large amount of natural gas.

According to Russian energy company Gazprom, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is covered by a 27 to 41 mm thick steel shell, which in turn is surrounded by a 60 to 110 mm thick concrete layer, making it very durable.

To blow a large hole in the pipeline, the current level of damage, requires a bomb to be dropped.

Coincidentally, after preliminary investigation and judgment, Germany and Denmark indicated that the accident should have been caused by "man-made sabotage".

However, judging by the fact that all parties have kept silent about the real murderer, the identity of the murderer is either "hard to say" or has not been identified.

In other words, at present, the United States, Russia, Ukraine, and even European countries may all be the instigators of the accident.

Looking back, Nord Stream was an important political achievement during Merkel's tenure, symbolizing a higher level of German-Russian relations and a new milestone in the integration of European and continental energy transport.

However, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Beixi inevitably became a sacrifice for the sharp decline in European-Russian relations. First, the German government announced the suspension of Beixi No. 2 under political correctness, which led to its company being forced to apply for bankruptcy, and then Russia was responsible for Forced Europe to lift sanctions against Russia, stop military aid to Ukraine, and forcibly cut off Nord Stream 1.

On September 27, 2022, turbulence occurred in the waters off the Danish island of Bornholm (Bornholm). The authorities said that the incident may be related to the leakage of a natural gas pipeline on the seabed.

(AP)

Now that the pipeline is destroyed, no matter which side caused the accident, the winter in Europe is bound to suffer, and the political impact is far-reaching.

First of all, in response to natural gas prices and energy market fluctuations, Europe can be said to be exhausted and do everything possible. Except that it has not yet agreed to Russia's political conditions, it has basically exhausted all means, including finance and taxation.

And given that the repair time of the Nord Stream accident may be as long as several months, the panic in the market is bound to stimulate the rise of natural gas prices in Europe, and the energy problems in Europe will be exacerbated.

In the political arena, although both Nord Stream 1 and 2 did not supply gas to Europe at the time of the damage, the former was due to Russia's maintenance and suspension of gas supply "for technical reasons", while the latter had not been supplied with gas since its completion. The gas has not been officially supplied, but this accident has clearly created a fait accompli, that is, in the next few months, the countries that once benefited from Beixi No. 1 will lose the opportunity to "compromise and exchange Russian gas". War" will also be temporarily suspended.

In short, there was originally a possibility that Europe was "forced to ease" the Russian-Ukrainian war. Now, with the bombing of Beixi, this role can only be marginalized in an instant, and it will increase Europe's energy dependence on the United States. The original energy connection has also temporarily disappeared.

When Merkel delivered a speech calling on Europe to attach importance to the independent line, the situation still had room for "man-made"; after the North Stream accident, the possibility of "man-made" still exists, but the space has shrunk extremely.

With the continued decline of European-Russian relations, the European independence that Merkel had worked so hard to achieve will eventually be seized by the second coming of the United States.

At one time, the outside world thought that the Russian-Ukrainian war could promote European autonomy to a higher level; now, it seems that Merkel's appeal is like a bombed pipeline. Under various internal and external exclusion, it has become "out of place" of the times, and it is difficult to speak for European independence.

【Q&A on European-Russian Relations】

Why does Merkel call on Europe not to completely sacrifice EU-Russia relations for Ukraine?

European-Russian exchanges are the only bargaining chip that can hedge against the influence of the United States on the European continent and help Europe become independent.

How did the bombing of Nord Stream affect Europe?

The energy problem was further exacerbated, and the role of mediating the Russian-Ukrainian war was forced to be marginalized.

The Beixi pipeline was damaged in many places. Putin described it as an act of international terrorism. The Russian-Ukrainian war | Who was the mastermind behind the Beixi explosion?

Blurring the line of war escalation Why did the leak of the Nord Stream gas pipeline destroy the pipeline at this time? Is Russia doing it?

The North Stream natural gas pipeline leak is suspected to have exploded in Germany, Denmark and Poland, pointing to man-made sabotage

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2022-09-30

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