The disqualification race gave a boost to the election system - but will it bring the Arab public out of indifference?

The Election Commission's decisions to disqualify Shikli and Balad woke up the sleeping system: in Likud they plan to fuel the campaign with a sense of injustice and persecution all the way to an appeal to the top, in the center-left they fear Balad's strengthening that will eat into the other two Arab parties and place all three of them in the danger zone of the blocking percentage

His dew

30/09/2022

Friday, September 30, 2022, 04:09 Updated: 10:30

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On video: Vote by the Election Committee on the disqualification of RPM's candidacy in the Knesset elections (Knesset Channel)

From the beginning of the holiday until after the holidays, the fifth election cycle, which is longer and more difficult than the previous four, is finally approaching the final stretch.

This can be learned from the number of billboards with faces of politicians on Ayalon routes.

The campaigners take advantage of the few days between the Tishrei holidays to flood videos and interviewees who pump messages in as many media interviews as possible, and prepare with heavy resources for Simchat Torah evenings.

The second rounds will launch the last round of the elections, and the assault on the area and the sleepy street in the two weeks that will remain until November 1.

At the same time, the disqualification race that started this week from the Central Election Commission and will reach its finish line at the Supreme Court, also gave the sleepy election system a shot of energy to warm up the engines.

The decision of the Chairman of the Elections Committee Judge Yitzhak Amit to disqualify Amichai Shikli's Likud candidacy will fuel Netanyahu's campaign with feelings of rage, injustice and persecution, which he will try to raise all the way to appeal to the Supreme Court.

Accused of trying to eliminate the Likud.

Chairman of the Election Commission Judge Yitzhak Amit (Photo: Reuven Castro)

Last night, during the tour of the Bibi-Ba truck in Ramla and Lod, he accused Judge Amit of trying to overthrow the right-wing government, to eliminate the Likud, to act against the will of the people and the principles of law and justice.

Amit's decision was mainly technical, and as evidence - Idit Silman's candidacy in Likud was indeed approved, but the facts do not change much.

If the supreme judges ratify the disqualification and do not allow Shiki to run, they will receive the same calls of denunciation and Gewald, from him and his convoy of MKs who are fighting the rule of the prosecutor's office, the ombudsman and the High Court and dreaming aloud of dramatic changes in the justice system.

The truth is that none of the Likudniks, and especially not those who are placed behind his armor in the 14th place, will not regret if Shikli's disqualification remains in effect, because they will all advance one place up the list.

Netanyahu made a public commitment yesterday that even if he is disqualified, he will appoint him as a minister.

Time will tell if Shikli will join former finance minister-designate Nir Barkat in his club of broken promises.

Whether he runs or not, Shikli's legal proceedings will place him at the front of the stage, occupy the agenda, and strengthen Likud's efforts to energize the base.

But it is not a reality changing event, more cosmetic.

The election committee's decision to disqualify Balad, on the other hand, has a much more explosive potential. Because it is a derivative of the big bang and the signs of the disintegration of the joint list into parts about two weeks ago.

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In collaboration with the lottery

He ordered Blok to abandon the Horma war, to leave the Arab street dormant.

Benjamin Netanyahu on the bus with the armored glass (photo: official website, no)

All the polls published since then bode ill for Arab representation in the next Knesset: Balad is far from the threshold with 1-2% of the votes, and Ra'am and Hadash/Ta'al pass it, but with 4-5 mandates, which is not really a margin of safety considering the sampling errors The statistics. Even before Balad's disqualification, given the pessimistic estimates of the low voter turnout in Arab society, the apparent joint result of the Arab parties is 8-9 mandates. This is a low in all five electoral systems which will leave the Arab society enormously underrepresented in the political arena and also - bring Netanyahu closer and the right-wing bloc for the 61st mandate.

Therefore, Netanyahu chose not to support the requests to disqualify Balad and Ra'am yesterday in the committee, and ordered Likud and the parties of the entire bloc to abandon the traditional war of attrition against the Arab MKs and their support for racism and terrorism.

The goal: to leave the Arab street dormant, and not to accidentally encourage voting in delegitimization campaigns.

Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who previously called for and supported the disqualification of Balad and Arab MKs who express support for terrorism, also decided to break tradition, for his own reasons, in a kind of mirror image.

Unlike Shikli's disqualification, which was accepted by the opinion of the chairman of the election committee only, Balad's disqualification was voted on by the plenum and the committee, a political body made up of the representatives of the factions;

And Bish Atid decided in advance not to participate in the show in order not to oppress the Arab voters with a feeling of silence and persecution, and not to strengthen Balad with attention, which could come at the expense of Mansur Abbas and Ayman Odeh.

In the end, it happened against the noses and anger of both Netanyahu and Lapid: Balad's request was approved by 9 members of the committee - representatives of the state camp, Yisrael Beitenu, Derech Eretz and Right, against five opponents from Meretz, the Joint List, and Prime Minister. Blue and White Chairman Benny Gantz recognized the breach in the shared vision of Netanyahu and Lapid , and ordered his representatives to vote in favor of the request.

may be responsible for the unfortunate collapse of their power.

Hadash-Ta'al members submit the list (photo: official website, Hadash-Ta'al communication)

One way or another, Balad will also end up in the Supreme Court, with a political-legal struggle that will fuel Sami Abu Shahada's campaign with the same energies of injustice and persecution. The great fear in the center-left bloc is that Balad's strengthening will erode the other two parties, and place the All three are very close to the block percentage zone.

In the doomsday scenario, not one, but two of the Arab parties will fail to pass, and hundreds of thousands of lost votes will return power to Netanyahu and the Right.

The voting rate in the Arab society will be the most decisive factor on the election results and it is difficult to predict if and how Balad's disqualification procedures will affect motivation. In the future, Beish Atid intend to increase Lapid's presence in the Arab media in blitz interviews in the coming days, and are considering further a speech at an election conference with his participation in the major cities of the sector At the same time, civil associations and extra-parliamentary bodies are looking for the formula for campaigns in Arabic that will crack the indifference and arouse the voters to leave the house. In the end, it rests in the hands of Abbas, Odeh, Tibi and Abu Shahada and the public who chooses not to elect them. They may be responsible for the unfortunate collapse of power and their influence on Israeli politics.

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