China's 20th Party Congress: Socialist pomp and staff reshuffles - will Xi get his third term?

Created: 2022-10-02 09:31

By: Christiane Kuehl

China's strongman: head of state and party leader Xi Jinping at an event with successful poverty fighters.

Will Xi remain at the top after party congress?

© Xie Huanchi/Xinhua/Imago

China's strongman Xi Jinping wants to secure another term at the upcoming 20th Communist Party Congress.

To do this, he would have to clear a rule that has been in force for decades.

Beijing/Munich - The party congresses of China's communists are always a forum for socialist pomp, ideology and gigantic personnel changes in the party.

In the last three decades, they have also stood for an orderly transfer of power from the party leadership after two terms of five years each.

That no longer applies.

At the upcoming 20th party congress, head of state and party leader Xi Jinping will in all likelihood have himself appointed chairman for a further five years.

As a result, he should remain President of the Republic for at least another five years.

Neither is actually intended.

When Xi became general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at the end of the 18th party congress in November 2012, the then 59-year-old was considered relatively inexperienced and his power base limited – mainly because he was surrounded by other leading cadres at the time who were were not among his allies.

Shortly before the 20th party congress, which begins on October 16, 2022, one thing is clear: Xi has no intention of leaving.

He has risen to become the most powerful CCP chief since "Great Chairman" Mao Zedong.

In 2017, no crown prince showed up.

Xi pushed aside No. 2 in the party hierarchy, Premier Li Keqiang - and simply took over many of his duties himself, through a network of party commissions on the economy, security or the environment.

In order to remain president for more than two terms, Xi had China's constitution amended in 2018.

And now he is on the verge of clearing away a party custom that has worked for decades – and simply continuing at the age of 69.

Actually, an unofficial party rule called "Seven-Up-Eight-Down" has been demanding for 30 years that all managers over 68 go into retirement.

This should ensure an institutional transfer of power without brutal power struggles like in the Mao era.

Many top cadres also had unpleasant memories of the aged Mao: the disadvantages of rule for life were obvious.

The party leadership has almost always stuck to it since then.

But it is now taking revenge that the CCP never put this in writing in its charter - and therefore there is little to do against Xi's plans.

If there is internal criticism of Xi's claim to power, it is not recognizable outside the party apparatus.

China: Post juggling behind the scenes of the party

Nevertheless, the party leadership is facing a generation change in the party.

Premier Li Keqiang, at 67, is theoretically likely to stay on the Standing Committee, but is likely to resign.

Two other members are 68 and 69. So there will be a chair-shift below Xi that party grandees have been wrestling behind the scenes for months.

"The selection process is even more opaque than it used to be," says Nis Grünberg, lead analyst at the Merics Institute for Chinese Studies in Berlin.

"At that time there were still various factions in the party from which it was known that certain representatives would rise up." These included the business-oriented Shanghai faction of former President Jiang Zemin or the more socially oriented youth league around Xi's predecessor Hu Jintao and Li Keqiang.

“Today there is actually only one large Xi faction.

Those who belong to other factions have fewer chances of advancement,” says Grünberg about the

of IPPEN.MEDIA.

So if someone gets a high position who does not belong to the Xi camp, that would be a signal that the party leader cannot push through every personal detail.

Chinese Communist Party Congresses

The party congresses, with around 2,300 delegates from all regions of China, have been held more or less continuously every five years since the CP was founded in 1921.

These party plenary sessions make decisions about the political course for the next five years or incorporate ideological tracts of the respective general secretary into the party constitution.

The party congresses also “elect” a new Central Committee (ZK) with around 230 members for a five-year cycle.

The Central Committee, in turn, determines the 25-strong Politburo and its Standing Committee, the actual power center of the party.

In the periods between party congresses, the Central Committee and the Politburo meet only occasionally for plenary sessions.

The really important decisions are made by the Standing Committee of the Politburo.

This one has seven times

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China Party Congresses: Forum for Ideology

In addition, party congresses are the occasion when respective CCP leaders have their ideology, theories and thoughts on socialism written into the party charter in order to secure their place in the party annals.

Despite all his mistakes, Mao Zedong is considered untouchable there, his "Mao Zedong Thoughts" are firmly part of the CP canon.

According to many observers, that is what Xi wants to achieve.

In 2017, he managed to have his "Xi Jinping Thoughts on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in the New Era" included in the party charter.

This makes him the first party leader, after Mao, who succeeded in anchoring his ideas and his name in the CP constitution during his lifetime.

But only when he has this word monster shortened to "Xi Jinping thought" is he really on the same level as Mao.

In terms of content, the concept is rather vague.

Xi speaks of a "rejuvenation of the nation" and a "Chinese dream".

Both stand for his goal of re-establishing China as a great power on the world stage.

But even more radical would be an attempt to re-establish the title of “Chairman” that was abolished after Mao's endless rule.

The word sounds harmless, but the founder of the state as "Chairman Mao" is still a cult figure in China - even among people who are critical of his disastrous ideological campaigns such as the Cultural Revolution.

If Xi manages to be enthroned as "Chairman Xi" at the 20th Congress, then he really has made it.

In this case, a Mao-like personality cult threatens.

Generational change in China's CP

It is still unclear whether Xi will succeed in imposing the personnel he favors on the party.

It is considered certain that in the spring of 2023 there will be a new prime minister and a new vice president.

The course for these state offices to be filled at the National People's Congress next March will be set at the party congress - by the promotion of the respective officials to the Standing Committee.

Vice President Wang Qishan, 72, is set to retire.

Premier Li Keqiang has also announced that he is leaving.

Two top candidates for prime minister are Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua: veteran politicians seen as pragmatic technocrats, both of whom once ruled the booming southern China province of Guangdong, but who are virtually unknown in the West.

If one of them gets the job, it would be a sign that Xi cannot push through all personnel decisions.

Because neither Wang nor Hu are proteges of the president.

Rather, they are said to be close to the group around Li Keqiang.

Both were already deputy prime ministers, a key requirement for the post.

But no one knows whether such conditions will continue to apply under Xi.

An example: "The criterion that someone must have been a vice president in order to move to the top was initially overridden by Xi," says Grünberg.

Both vice presidents under Xi were older than himself - and therefore not intended as his successors from the start.

In general, according to Grünberg, experience in the provinces, for example, is an important condition for political advancement.

But it is quite possible that Xi will soften this criterion at the party congress.

That would be a clear sign that Xi values ​​ideological correctness and loyalty over professional experience.

"Better red than expert" was the motto during the radical phases of the Mao era, which, as is well known, plunged the country into chaos.

The history of the People's Republic of China from 1949 to the present

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No one can say how fiercely behind the scenes the battles for the high posts are fought.

Recently, fake news about an alleged military coup against Xi caused a stir.

Meanwhile, rumors of fierce opposition within the CCP against Xi have not been substantiated.

"Xi will rule China for another 10-15 years," believes Yang Zhang, a CCP expert and sociologist at American University in Washington.

"Right now he doesn't have to appoint a successor," Yang wrote on Twitter.

“And no one dares propose one.

His future successor is now a middle-ranked civil servant.”