Iran crisis: protests have first consequences for regime – rumors about “Supreme Leader”

Created: 2022-10-02 13:03

By: Bettina Menzel

A solidarity demonstration to commemorate Mahsa Amini in the Main Square in the Polish capital of Kraków.

In many places around the world, including Berlin on Saturday, people demonstrated against the regime in Iran.

© IMAGO/Beata Zawrzel / NurPhoto

The protests in Iran continue, but according to one report they are currently unable to overthrow the regime.

Meanwhile, rumors about the “Supreme Leader” could portend a shift in power.

Tehran - After the death of 22-year-old Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini at the hands of the police, protests in Iran continue.

According to government sources, at least 19 people died and 20 others were seriously injured in violent riots in the south-east of the country on Friday (October 30).

The actual number of dead and injured could be higher, the local news

spoke of at least 36 dead and 50 injured.

Meanwhile, rumors have been swirling about Ali Khamenei, Iran's "Supreme Leader."

Is a change of power imminent?

Iran News: At least 19 dead in protests - including local intelligence chief

According to the AFP news agency, it was initially not clear whether the clashes in the south-east of the country were related to protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini after her arrest by the vice squad.

Because in the Iranian province of Sistan-Baluchestan, which borders Pakistan and Afghanistan, there are frequent clashes between security forces and armed groups.

Often these are smugglers, separatist or extremist groups.

However, reports circulated on social media that the incident was related to the ongoing protests.

The authorities denied this.

Activists claimed security forces fired from a helicopter at a crowd gathered at the Maki Mosque, the

reported.

According to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) on Saturday, "terrorist and separatist groups" attacked a police station during Friday prayers in Sahedan.

The IRGC said they arrested several people whom they described as "terrorists".

The local IRGC intelligence chief was apparently among the 19 dead.

According to the human rights organization Iran Human Rights (IHR), at least 83 people had been killed in the protests in Iran before the people in the south-east of the country died.

The Iranian secret service announced on Friday that nine foreign nationals from Germany, Poland, Italy, France, Sweden and the Netherlands were among those arrested so far in the country.

Iran-News: "Supreme Leader" Khamenei possibly ill or unable to work

Iran's head of government, Ebrahim Raisi, caused a scandal shortly after the protests began when he canceled an interview with a US journalist in New York City because she was not wearing a headscarf.

Shortly thereafter, the hardliner agreed to more conciliatory tones.

"I've always said that we should raise our tolerance level for criticism and protests," said Raisi in response to the protests in Iran last Wednesday.

The implementation of the laws can also be reformed and revised, which would even benefit the country, the Iranian President continued.

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Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the de facto ruler in Iran.

The "Supreme Leader" is appointed for life, controls parliament and the media and is considered the political and religious leader and supreme commander of the armed forces.

The 83-year-old is apparently in poor health, according to a report by researchers at the US think tank Institute for the Study of War.

US researchers on protests in Iran: "Currently cannot overthrow the regime"

Khamenei has been unusually absent since the nationwide anti-government protests that began on September 16, ISW experts said.

There are rumors that the state of health of the "Supreme Leader" is said to have deteriorated, but these could not initially be verified.

However, there are indications that Khamenei is ill or unable to work, the ISW report continues.

Accordingly, a successor could be imminent.

"President Ebrahim Raisi - a prominent contender to succeed Khamenei - is positioning himself as the next 'Supreme Leader,' with support from senior officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps," the researchers said.

With regard to the current protests, the ISW experts assume that these would put a strain on the regime's ability to take tough action.

The uprisings are not yet existential.

"The protests [...] currently appear unable to overthrow the regime," the report said.

During the protests, women keep taking off the mandatory headscarves, sometimes even burning the scarves.

To curb the uprisings in the country, Iran restricted internet access.

People all over the world are taking to the streets to show their solidarity.

So also on Saturday in Germany.