Bolsonaro contradicts all electoral polls in Brazil

The president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, during the press conference in Brasilia after coming second in the first round of the presidential elections, on October 2, 2022. Eraldo Peres (AP)

If there was a vote that was opaque to the polls, it was that of Jair Bolsonaro.

The president had spent months shooting against the opinion polls that gave him less than 35%.

He annihilated all expectations.

With 99% counted, he obtained 43.2% of the votes, five points behind Lula da Silva.

The most optimistic forecasts gave it between 10 and 15 points below.

Bolsonaro even led the count well into the night.

The followers of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva clenched their teeth, trusting in the vote of the Northeast and the big urban centers.

They could celebrate, but they suffered.

The extreme right was stronger than all the polls showed and began the final race towards the second round with the adrenaline of someone who feels victorious in defeat.

Bolsonaro had already said it at the time of voting this Sunday morning.

“It is time for

”, or

, he told the journalists who approached him at the door of the Rio de Janeiro college, where he has his electoral residence.

It was a direct attack on Datafolha, the great polling company in Brazil, which was far behind.

They were not too wrong with Lula, who finally finished with 48% and close to a victory in the first round, but they did not see the phenomenon of an ultra electorate that was there, ready to fight.

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"We defeated the lies," said the president with the final result.

His presentation, however, was not as effusive as might have been expected.

He even spoke with a certain tone of defeat, from Brasilia, in front of his residence and before a few journalists.

“I understand that there is a lot of vote [for Lula] that was due to the condition of the Brazilian people, that he felt the increase in products.

Specifically, from the basic basket.

I understand that there is a desire for change on the part of the population, but I also know that there are changes that can be for the worse,” he said.

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The result in the State of São Paulo, a country within another, with 46 million inhabitants, the same as Colombia or Argentina, has been key for Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro obtained 47.8% of the votes there, seven points more than Lula, equivalent to 1.8 million votes.

The president's electoral push was even transferred to the dispute for the governorship.

The president appointed an unknown candidate in the district, Tarcísio Gomes, a military man born in another state, Rio de Janeiro, who was his Minister of Infrastructure.

Gomes won 42% of the votes as a candidate, almost seven points ahead of Fernando Haddad, a political heavyweight who ran for president for the Workers' Party in 2018, precisely against Bolsonaro.

The president is in good condition to fight in the second round, scheduled for October 30.

He knows that, furthermore, whoever the final winner is, he has become strong in Parliament, which will be more conservative than the current one.

Brazilians can expect a more radical president in his speeches against "the convict", as he disparagingly calls Lula every time he recalls that he spent 20 months in prison convicted of corruption, before his cases were annulled for formal reasons. .

Bolsonaro spent a good part of his campaign spreading false news against Lula and attacking the Superior Electoral Court.

He questioned the security of electronic ballot boxes, the same ones that now put him in the race for a second term.

The Workers' Party celebrated Sunday night on Paulista Avenue, the heart of the country's largest city.

It was a great party, but with a bitter taste.

Lula's party knows that it has a tough rival lurking just around the corner.

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