Bosnia: Double surprise possible in crisis state - Putin friend Dodik has to tremble

Created: 03/10/2022 06:13

By: Florian Naumann, Bedrettin Bölükbasi

The Bosnia elections may have delivered surprises: two defeats for nationalists – and separatist Dodik under pressure.

The news ticker.

• Bosnia-Herzegovina

  elects: Among other things, the state presidium and the two chambers of parliament are affected.

• Putin friend

  and

  separatist Milorad Dodik

  under pressure: Unexpectedly close race in Serbian-dominated Republika Srpska?

• Surprise

  at the

  State Presidency

  : Two "nationalists" facing defeat - Croats and Bosniaks probably choose conciliatory candidates

Update from October 2, 11:45 p.m .:

The Bosnian election once again seems to reflect an unpredictable state – and great potential for conflict: in the election to the three-person state presidency, two politicians who are clearly opposed to tendencies towards division are surprisingly ahead, the Bosnian Denis Bećirović and the Croat Željko Komšić.

Only for the Serbian citizens, with Željka Cvijanović, a “nationalist” is likely to move into the committee again.

However, there is a risk of controversy over the election of the President of the Serbian entity Republika Srpska: Milorad Dodik, who is also known in Central Europe for his closeness to Vladimir Putin and sometimes threatening tendencies towards secession, is apparently in a close race.

As the Bosnian broadcaster N1 reports, the conservative PDP - a kind of sister party of the CDU/CSU - sees its candidate Jelena Trivić in the front after counting 40 percent of the votes.

Dodik's SNSD has denounced this account as incorrect and has announced a statement.

A background to the conflict: The figures for the interim result of the count are published by the parties themselves and not by a central office.

Bosnia election: surprise at the state presidency - two nationalist candidates could lose

Update from October 2, 11 p.m.:

In the elections for the three-person state presidency in Bosnia-Herzegovina, losses for the nationalist candidates are becoming increasingly apparent in two of the three population groups.

After counting 61 percent of the votes, the Social Democrat Denis Bećirović led the race for the Bosniak seat in the state presidency with 55 percent of the votes ahead of the leader of the Muslim nationalist SDA party, Bakir Izetbegovic, with 41 percent.

Becirovic's victory would mean that for the first time in twelve years no SDA politician would be represented in the state presidency.

According to the partial results, the current incumbent, the non-nationalist reformer Željko Komšić, may have prevailed in the race for the Croatian seat.

He is said to have accounted for 67 percent of the votes.

The Serbian seat, on the other hand, is likely to remain in the hands of nationalists.

The candidate of the SNSD, which governs the Serbian part of the country, Željka Cvijanović, is said to have won 60 percent of the votes.

She is a confidant of Serbian separatist Milorad Dodik, who previously held the Serbian seat on the state presidency.

This time he ran for the presidency of the Serbian part of the country and was reportedly ahead.

Official results were not expected until Monday.

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Bosnia election: Serbian separatist Milorad Dodik has to tremble

Update from October 2nd, 10:00 p.m

.: The Bosnian television station N1 also reports a possible election surprise when the Bosniak member of the three-person state presidency of Bosnia-Herzegovina is elected: After counting around two-thirds of the votes cast, the Social Democrat Denis Bećirović leads the candidate Party SDA, Bakir Izetbegović, it is said.

The SDA traditionally sees itself as the representative of the Muslim Bosniaks and has previously held the post.

According to information from the broadcaster, Željko Komšić should be confirmed in office as a Croatian member of the Presidium.

Observers had thought a victory for the nationalist HDZ and its candidate Borjana Krišto possible.

According to current figures, the Serbian representative could become the nationalist Željka Cvijanović (SNSD).

The situation is apparently explosive in the race for the presidency of the Bosnian-Herzegovinian sub-entity Republika Srpska: The nationalist Milorad Dodik – party friend of Cvijanović – started the race as the favourite.

In the evening, however, supporters of the opposition party PDP were already celebrating in Banja Luka.

According to N1, the PDP spoke of a "convincing lead" for its candidate Jelena Trivic over Dodik.

SNSD spokesman Radovan Kovačević admitted a "close race".

Bosnia: Putin friend Dodik before election victory?

At the same time surprise with Bosnians possible

Update from October 2, 9:10 p.m .:

The polling stations in Bosnia-Herzegovina are now closed – the first numbers could indicate an election victory for the separatist-minded Serb leader Milorad Dodik in the Republic of Srpska.

Dodik himself published numbers that put him in front of his competitor Jelena Trivic.

The Bosnian Serb wants to become president of the sub-entity.

In recent months, Dodik, still in his current position as a member of the three-strong state presidency, has demonstrated secession tendencies.

For example, with the explosive demand for their own army.

On the other hand, a surprise seemed possible in the voting of the Bosnian voters when choosing their member for the three-person state presidency: According to unconfirmed numbers of the

offer , the social democratic SDP could win there.

The party is regarded as a supporter of the overall statehood of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

However, the lead over the candidate from the Islamic party SDA is small.

The situation in the election of the Croatian member is similar: after counting the first votes, the incumbent Željko Komšić is clearly ahead of the candidate of the nationalist HDZ, Borjana Krišto.

There was also excitement on Sunday evening about an announcement by the High Representative in Bosnia-Herzegovina, the CSU politician Christian Schmidt.

Shortly after the counting of the votes began, he published a new voting law to prevent "blockades" - there was talk of a "functionality package".

Among other things, there should be "deadlines" for steps in forming a government.

Criticism arose on social networks at the time of the announcement.

The voters, meanwhile, apparently approached today's election with low expectations.

"I hope for nothing," said the 57-year-old economist Amra Besic, the agency AFP when voting in Sarajevo.

"I vote because it's the only thing I can do as an individual." 21-year-old philosophy student Sara Djogic lamented the lack of new ideas and fresh faces.

“We have already observed most of the candidates who are running over the past 20 years.”

Update from October 2, 6 p.m.:

The polling stations in Bosnia and Herzegovina are still open.

Voter turnout seemed solid at first: According to Europe Elects, 15 percent of those entitled to vote had taken action by 11 a.m. – slightly more than in the previous three elections.

Representatives of the European Parliament (EP), meanwhile, are monitoring events in the cities of Sarajevo, Mostar and Banja Luka, the EP Democracy Promotion and Elections Coordination Group tweeted.

The well-known journalist James Jackson meanwhile pointed to another crucial arena beyond the possible election of the Bosnian-Serb nationalist Milorad Dodik as president of the Republic of Srpska: Should the Croatian population also elect a representative of the also nationalist HDZ as president, this could cause difficulties for one electoral law reform and EU accession.

However, the polls are pointing in the right direction, Jackson tweeted.

Update from October 2, 10:36 a.m

.: In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the polling stations have been open since 7 a.m. – but the first preliminary results are only expected several hours after they close at 7 p.m.

The country, divided into a Serbian and a Croatian-Muslim state with a central government, votes on three levels.

In the Republic of Srpska, the Serbian part of the country, the regional representatives and the president are elected.

Observers assume that Serb leader Milorad Dodik will become president again after four years in the state presidency.

Milorad Dodik, leader of the Bosnian Serbs, leaves a polling station in Laktasi after casting his vote.

© Darko Vojinovic/dpa

Bosnia election: "Ethnic divisions are deep"

First report

: Munich/Sarajevo – The Dayton Peace Treaty sponsored by the USA ended the bloody civil war in Bosnia in 1995 after three and a half years.

At the same time, however, the agreement created one of the most complex political systems in the world.

The goal: All ethnic groups - Orthodox Serbs, Catholic Croats and Muslim Bosnians - should participate in the political process.

Now the country goes to the ballot box on Sunday (October 2) to determine the three-member Presidency Council.

The election in Bosnia is as complicated as the country itself. The Balkan country is divided into a Serbian and a Croatian-Muslim state, and there is also a central government in Sarajevo.

The Croatian-Muslim state itself is divided into ten subjects.

The political system consists of 14 governments and 136 ministers.

Bosnia election: who will be elected?

At the level of the state institutions, the electorate determines the two chambers of the central parliament and the three-member presidency.

It is occupied by a Croat, a Bosniak Muslim and a Serb, who take turns as chair every eight months.

In the Republic of Srpska, the Serbian part of the country, the regional deputies as well as the president and his two deputies are elected.

In the Muslim-Croatian federation, elections are taking place for a bicameral parliament, which will then appoint a president and two vice-presidents.

The voters also choose the members of the assemblies of the ten cantons that make up the federation.

According to the Central Electoral Commission of Bosnia (CIK), a total of 127 political subjects are on the ballot paper on Sunday: 72 political parties, 38 coalitions and 17 independent candidates.

The total number of candidates for the 2022 election is 7258 names.

Ten of these individuals are running for election to the three-member Council of Presidents.

Bosnia election: who is running for the Presidency Council?

While Serb Bosnians have a choice of five candidates, the Bosniak side has three and the Croatian side has only two candidates.

Still, a heated race is expected between both the Bosniak and Croatian candidates.

In the 2018 election, nationalist hardliner Milorad Dodik was also on the list of Serbian candidates.

On Sunday, however, he now wants to be elected President of the Republic of Srpska (RS), Bosnia's Serbian entity, instead - a post he has already held twice.

His party colleague and the current president of the RS, Zeljka Cvijanovic, replaces him as a candidate on the Serbian list.

Victory seems certain to Dodik and it can be assumed that as President of the RS he will continue his policy of secession.

For the past four years, Dodik has been a member of Bosnia's three-man presidency, but that hasn't stopped him from proclaiming his contempt for the "failed country" at every opportunity.

Dodik is also considered a friend of the Russian ruler Vladimir Putin.

Previously, he received financial support from the head of the Kremlin.

The Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has already advertised him.

• Bosniak candidates:

  Mirsad Hadzikadic, Bakir Izetbegovic, Denis Bekirovic

• Croatian candidates:

  Borjana Kristo, Zeljko Komsic

• Serbian candidates:

  Borislav Bijelic, Zeljka Cvijanovic, Mirko Sarovic, Vojin Mijatovic, Nenad Nesic

Bosnia election: What prospects does the country have?

"Bosnia-Herzegovina is experiencing the worst political crisis since the signing of the peace agreement," said political expert Ranko Mavrak from Sarajevo, adding: "The ethnic divisions are so deep that they pose a real threat to Bosnia's survival and integrity."

The EU, which Bosnia wants to join, has called on the country's different governments to "speak with one voice".

But this goal remains a long way off.

The ongoing power struggle is exacerbated by the different aspirations of the main ethnic groups for Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Bosniak Muslims tend to be more centralized, while Serbs in the Republic of Srpska insist on their autonomy.

The Croats, on the other hand, are increasingly frustrated with their position in the federation - some are calling for their own third state.