Brazil election | Lula fails to defeat 'Trump Trump' alt-right from exception to normal

After almost all votes were counted in Brazil's general election on October 2, former Workers' Party (PT) president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva failed to secure a majority in a one-hit defeat to the incumbent right-wing president, "tropical" Trump's Jair Bolsonaro led the latter with 43.2 percent of the vote with 48.4 percent.

The two will face off in the second round of voting on October 30.

Since Bolsonaro's pre-election polls have long been at the level of support of more than 30%, this "super-standard" performance will give him a boost in his continued victory.

epidemic?

Yama election?

voters don't care

The Brazilian left is looking forward to this election as much as the US liberals are looking to the 2020 election, hoping that voters will vote for someone like Trump or Bolsonaro after four years of populism, political division and governance chaos A decisive blow to the same extreme "alt-right".

But after the polls, the results of both were similar: in the United States, Biden and the Democrats could only fly at a low altitude; in Brazil, the 76-year-old veteran Lula also failed to defeat Bolsonaro in one fell swoop. More intense election races for up to 28 days.

After the result is clear, Lula said he likes the campaign and will highlight the shortcomings of Bolsonaro through a one-on-one debate with Bolsonaro; while Bolsonaro, who is significantly behind Lula among the poorer population, will I waved to these groups, expressing my understanding of the rising prices of basic products, hoping to convince this group of "the most important classes in society" in the future.

What worries the left is that while Brazil has the second-highest number of deaths in the world under the ignorant Bolsonaro, people don't seem to care too much.

Bolsonaro's third health minister in the outbreak, Eduardo Pazuello, who has no public health background, was elected to the Congress of Rio de Janeiro.

And people don't seem to care about Bolsonaro allowing the Amazon forest to be illegally destroyed and exploited.

Its environment minister, Ricardo Salles, was also elected to Sao Paulo's parliament.

Lula had stated before the election that he hoped to defeat Bolsonaro in the first round of voting.

(Twitter @LulaOficial)

These are just two of at least seven Bolsonaro cabinet officials elected to Congress, and Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) has become the largest party in the lower house of parliament.

Who will benefit from the final sprint on the 28th?

Although Bolsonaro has not raised his allegations of "election fraud" after the first round of voting, the result of this election will undoubtedly deepen the distrust of his supporters in the election polls.

Bolsonaro's supporters have often questioned "fake polls" when previous polls showed Lula with a double-digit lead, saying Bolsonaro could not lose.

At this moment, their doubts seem to be confirmed.

In fact, the popular street sampling polls in Brazil may indeed magnify the proportion of poorer people after the epidemic.

Moreover, the epidemic has delayed Brazil's census by two years until August this year.

These factors also affect the representativeness of the polls.

Still, the polling inaccuracy itself is likely to serve as further support for the "anti-establishment" beliefs of Bolsonaro supporters.

Against the background of Bolsonaro's unexpected election, Lula's lead to the end depends on whether he can win the support of other presidential candidates who have less than 5% of the votes, and those who know that in the first round of voting. Whether voters who will not change the outcome and still support the inevitable loser will switch to Lula.

(Below is a clip of Trump speaking in support of Bolsonaro)

- Obrigado, meu amigo Trump! Graças ao apoio do povo brasileiro e de nossa determinação em lutar pelos interesses do Brasil, hoje somos respeitados no mundo todo e contamos com o apoio de nações livres e prósperas e não mais de ditaduras socialistas, como no passado . pic.twitter.com/p4gcAcSiIU

— Jair M. Bolsonaro 2️⃣2️⃣ (@jairbolsonaro) October 2, 2022

On the other hand, due to high commodity prices, Brazil's economic growth exceeded expectations this year, and the Brazilian Real became one of the few currencies to appreciate against the US dollar, and its domestic inflation also fell from double digits to single digits. Coupled with Bolsonaro's temporary money-handling policy passed before the election, in the coming month, if poor voters start to feel that their lives are improving, it will create a disadvantageous situation for Lula.

Even if Lula can win another victory on October 30, Bolsonaro will not be guaranteed not to refuse to recognize the result of the election and dispute the election in the judicial system and on the streets.

Unlike the United States, where each region manages its own voting, Brazil has a unified national election management and arbitration agency, so there will not be dozens of local disputes like Trump's questioning of the election.

However, violent clashes cannot be ruled out - at least three members of the Workers' Party have been killed before the election.

While Bolsonaro's campaign to contest the election is likely to fail, Brazil's "alt-right" is no longer an exception, but part of Brazil's political culture.

On the one hand, there are many right-wing politicians of Bolsonaro's family in Congress, and the right-wing in a broad sense also accounts for the majority of Congress, making Lula's governance likely to return to Bolsonaro's presidency. In the expanding politics of "dividing the pork".

On the other hand, Bolsonaro, who has stepped down, may also use conspiracy theory-style propaganda to ensure his influence in Brazil's right-wing politics, just like Trump is still questioning the "stolen" of the presidency. Plotting for a comeback, or handing over political power to his three politician sons.

As in the 2020 U.S. election, a campaign that cannot overwhelmingly defeat the alt-right will leave Brazilian politics with even more torturous uncertainty and instability.

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The international right-wing front behind the Brazilian president