Nord Stream sabotage - the background, the consequences: what is known so far

Created: 10/03/2022 11:33 am

By: Patricia Huber

The attack on the Nord Stream pipelines shows the vulnerability of Europe's infrastructure.

But who is behind it and what are the possible consequences?

An overview.

Bornholm – Large amounts of gas are currently flowing out of four leaks in the two Nord Stream pipelines.

The fact that this is an act of sabotage is now hardly questioned.

Nevertheless, in addition to the question of guilt, other mysteries remain unanswered.

Who would benefit from such an attack?

What are the consequences of the gas leak for the environment?

And what does that mean for the energy infrastructure in Europe in the future?

The most important answers from experts at a glance.

How were the Nord Stream pipelines damaged?

Shortly after the leaks in the Nord Stream tubes were reported, it was also revealed that there had been several previous explosions in the area.

Blasting underwater is not rocket science, especially when it is not a question of great depths, as is the case in the Baltic Sea.

Military divers of all nations are trained in it.

Thus, sea mines of a possible opponent are usually blown up under water in a controlled manner, not defused.

Civil blasting schools also offer such training, as do civil protection authorities such as, in the case of Germany, the Federal Agency for Technical Relief (THW).

In principle, however, at least one second method of destruction is conceivable for a pipeline, say technology experts.

The tube is serviced with a "pig," a remote-controlled cleaning robot that can be loaded with explosives if perpetrators have access to the system.

In addition, Russia has a huge submarine fleet and underwater drones.

These too would be able to cause such damage.

Who is likely to be the perpetrator?

In principle, it is possible that opponents of Russia could be behind the attacks and thus want to further increase the pressure on the Kremlin.

However, observers tend to point to the Kremlin when looking for the possible backers.

It is possible that Russian President Vladimir Putin no longer assumes that Europe will buy gas from Russia again in the foreseeable future and therefore no longer has to take the pipeline into account.

In addition, the former KGB agent's sabotage could remind the West how vulnerable the infrastructure is in many countries.

Important international communication routes such as Internet and telephone connections run via submarine cables.

And they can hardly be protected against possible attacks.

Are there any traces of the perpetrators?

The Baltic Sea is one of the best monitored sea areas ever - especially after the escalation of tensions with Russia because of the Ukraine war.

All of the neighboring countries monitor shipping and air traffic with sensors, and there are highly developed skills on the German side.

Movements of vehicles in the water are tracked by recording the acoustic signature and comparing it with a database.

The navy uses all this information to create an “underwater situation picture”, which, however, also has its limits when it comes to observing enemy submarines.

The evidence also includes the damage to the pipeline.

However, because the escaping gas initially bubbles considerably, a more detailed analysis is only possible later - Denmark's Ministry of Defense assumes one to two weeks,

also read

Putin's gas plan about to end: Russia's blackmail is unlikely to work

Nord Stream leaks: Russia suddenly talks about “repairs” – and stops gas supplies via Austria

, several anonymous sources

pointed out that Russian military boats and submarines were near the site of the explosion earlier in the week.

However, this information has not yet been verified.

However, another anonymous Danish intelligence source explained that this would not be unusual either.

There was no evidence that these boats were linked to the attacks.

Who is responsible for protecting the German infrastructure?

"The federal police are on the move with their ships 24 hours a day and 7 days a week on the North Sea and Baltic Sea," says Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD).

In the coastal areas and on land, the federal states are responsible for averting danger - "the threads come together in the Maritime Security Center in Cuxhaven".

How should the infrastructure be protected in the future?

"We see again how strongly external and internal security are linked," says Faeser.

You have to be prepared for scenarios "that were hardly conceivable until recently".

Some interior experts in the coalition believe that naming problems here is not enough.

In the coalition agreement, the SPD, Greens and FDP formulated: “We are bundling the physical protection of critical infrastructures in a KRITIS umbrella law.

We are strategically realigning the “civil defence” concept.” The focus is now also on protecting undersea cables for telecommunications and electricity, but also LNG terminals and oil and gas platforms.

Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said on Wednesday: "The alleged act of sabotage on the Baltic Sea pipelines shows us once again that we are dependent on critical infrastructure - including under water.

The circumstances of this disturbing event must now be clarified quickly and those responsible identified. ”The Navy will contribute to the investigation.

How dangerous are the pipeline leaks for the environment?

According to the Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW), the influence of the leaks in the Nord Stream gas pipelines on climate change is comparatively small.

"This does not change the climate," said IOW researcher Oliver Schmale on Wednesday in Rostock.

Nevertheless, the total amount of 500 million cubic meters of natural gas that can escape from the pipes according to assumptions by various media corresponds to around 18 percent of the annual methane emissions in Germany in 2021. According to Schmale, however, it is only 0.06 percent in a global comparison.

According to the information, the natural gas escaping from the pipeline consists of around 97 percent methane.

However, the scientist does not want to downplay the damage caused by the greenhouse gas methane.

The greenhouse gas effect is around 25 times stronger with methane than with CO2.

Due to the accumulation of gases in the atmosphere, energy radiated from the earth – which would actually escape into space – is thrown back again.

According to Schmale, from a purely scientific point of view, it would make sense to ignite the escaping natural gas above the water surface and thus trigger its conversion to CO2.

However, he cannot assess whether this is feasible in practice.