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Dissolution of the National Assembly: Emmanuel Macron's great bluff

2022-10-04T09:32:00.511Z


INTERVIEW – Emmanuel Macron has warned that in the event of a motion of censure for the pension reform, he would consider dissolving the Assembly. The academic explains why this option is, according to him, unlikely and not very advantageous for Ensemble!.


Benjamin Morel is a lecturer in public law at the University of Paris-II Panthéon-Assas.

FIGAROVOX.

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The Minister of Labor, Olivier Dussopt affirmed that if the deputies voted a motion of censure against the government within the framework of the pension reform, Emmanuel Macron would not exclude a dissolution of the National Assembly.

Is this really possible?

Benjamin Morel.

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It is quite unlikely and Emmanuel Macron knows it.

Moreover, its objective is undoubtedly more media than purely parliamentary.

The only motion of censure which was adopted under the Fifth Republic, and which led to the fall of the Pompidou Government, led to a dissolution.

Moreover, it is obvious that if this were to happen, the parliamentary configuration would lead Emmanuel Macron to dissolve.

In short, Emmanuel Macron broke an open door into which all the journalists rushed and which allowed him to sell the story of a courageous president, going to the end of the reforms against all odds.

It is, however, a braggart in front of a cardboard bull.

Indeed, the rules of the motion of censure make its outcome unlikely.

It would take 289 MPs to vote for the motion.

Indeed, the Constitution provides that the text must pass by an absolute majority of the members of the National Assembly.

In other words, abstentions work for the government.

However, this would imply that the Nupes, the RN and LR,

at least

, are found on the same text.

It's quite unlikely.

If only because LR is not opposed to the substance of the reform and does not wish to see a dissolution happen, it will abstain.

So the government has very little chance of falling.

This, Emmanuel Macron knows;

parliamentarians know it too.

Once the presidential bravado launched, the latter responded to it in an equally brazen way... in front of journalists persuaded to comment on the match of the century.

Read alsoAgnès Verdier-Molinié: "Why the announced pension reform will favor the public to the detriment of the private"

What would be the political consequences of a dissolution for the presidential majority?

Would it emerge strengthened or weakened?

By definition, you can't really predict what an election would look like, when you don't really appreciate the date or the context.

However, we can predict that if the latter took place in the midst of an inflation crisis, with an unpopular reform as the main campaign theme, it would not be favorable to the presidential camp.

According to an Ifop survey of September 29, 56% of French people support the social movement and 75% reject the use of 49 paragraph 3. We can always say that the dissolution can thus make it possible to scare the deputies of the majority fearing defeat. … one can also think that it would hardly please a president reduced to impotence.

It would be extremely difficult to improve on the already poor June score for Ensemble!.

The credibility and parliamentary normalization of the RN suggest that the Republican front has definitely lived.

Benjamin Morel

The RN is probably the political force that would be most likely to garner votes.

The duels lost were not much during the last legislative elections, especially those against Nupes.

Marine le Pen's party has clearly scored points in recent months and secured a place in parliament that no one now really has the ability to challenge.

The credibility and parliamentary normalization of the party suggest that the Republican front has definitely lived.

It remains to be seen whether his electorate would mobilize in such an election.

However, the domination of themes relating to purchasing power and social anger are strong mobilization levers for his electorate.

Read also Stuck by the crises and its relative majority, the executive takes its time to reform

After the many controversies that Nupes has gone through lately, what could be the outcome for the coalition of left-wing parties?

It's hard to say.

As the spearhead of the fight against reform, Nupes can theoretically capitalize on an election that would be seen as a referendum for or against pension reform.

However, the electorate which carried it in June, in particular in the suburbs and the center of cities, is not the most sensitive to these subjects.

Nupes' problem is that their electorate is very geographically concentrated, which allows them to be certain of a few fiefdoms, but makes it difficult to obtain a better score in sieges.

This would require that part of the electorate abstaining or voting RN turns to her, which is anything but obvious in the first round.

In the second round, this can allow him to mobilize against the Macronist candidates,

What is on the other hand certain is that, for the Nupes, if there were to be dissolution, it would benefit from occurring in a tense social context and relatively early under this five-year term.

Indeed, the dissensions are likely to be more and more strong as the European ones approach.

However, the left can only hope to win a united legislative body.

For Jean-Luc Mélenchon, betting on dissolution is therefore understandable, but extremely risky.

Source: lefigaro

All news articles on 2022-10-04

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