This weekend Austria will elect a new Federal President, who will most likely be the old one and will therefore once again be called Alexander Van der Bellen.
But that is not certain.
Because what was considered a given for so long is now proving to be a problem: the self-evidence with which Van der Bellen was and is regarded as the sure winner in the election makes it difficult for him and his team to mobilize the supporters to actually vote go and vote for him.
Especially those who voted for Van der Bellen last time (there were several last times) more out of embarrassment and a lack of alternatives than out of conviction.
The second as danger
There are a lot of challengers this time, namely six, but most are dismissed as rather ridiculous and not to be taken seriously.
The second strongest candidate, and that is probably Walter Rosenkranz from the FPÖ, does not get more than 20 percent in almost any survey.
So it's considered to have no chance.
And yet: If Van der Bellen did not get more than 50 percent in the first round of voting and had to go to the runoff, the tide could turn.
Then Rosencrantz would probably have the voters of the other four right-wing candidates behind him and would have a good chance of defeating Van der Bellen in a run-off election.
more on the subject
The location: Inside Austria:Pogo in the Vienna Hofburg?By Michael Völker, Head of Domestic Department at DER STANDARD
That's why Team Van der Bellen's mobilization strategy for the past week is: Every vote counts.
Just no experiments.
And this experiment would be called Dominik Wlazny, along with Van der Bellen the only one of the seven candidates who can be clearly assigned to the left camp.
Wlazny is known as a musician under the pseudonym Marco Pogo, but as chairman of the Beer Party, the activist has some political experience and is not that bad at campaigning.
The fact that he floundered a few times in an interview with ORF anchorman Armin Wolf and had to admit that he had already smoked a joint and probably several, will not irritate his circle of supporters.
On the contrary:
Professional apparatus
But he is by no means so fresh in politics.
He had already founded his beer party in 2015 as a garnish for his debut album »Irokesentango« by his band Turbobier.
In 2019, Wlazny ran as the top candidate of the Beer Party in the National Council elections.
4946 people voted for him, that was 0.1 percent.
In 2020, Wlazny finally stood as a candidate in the state and local council elections in Vienna.
The entry into the state parliament failed, but the beer party won at least eleven mandates at district council level.
With demands to replace the high-flow fountain on Schwarzenbergplatz, which stands directly in front of the Red Army Heroes' Monument erected in 1945, with a beer fountain, Pogo also managed to attract a lot of attention as a district councillor.
And now he is cleverly using the federal presidential election campaign to increase his profile.
Less is left to chance than it appears.
There is now an apparatus behind it that works well organized.
The musician seems to go down particularly well with younger people and those on the left spectrum.
Quite painful for Van der Bellen and his camp.
In any case, the ten percent that Wlazny could get hurt Van der Bellen – and they could be the decisive factor in a runoff election.
attack from the left
This does not give Wlazny a bad conscience.
And even if he keeps himself covered with his plans, it seems clear what his candidacy is aimed at.
It is a test run for a new start in the National Council election.
The next federal election will take place in 2024.
And then the SPÖ, from which Wlazny is currently cared for with a lot of sympathy, could have a problem.
So far, there has been little or no serious competition from the left.
The Communist Party of Austria campaigns tirelessly, but with the exception of Styria and the Styrian state capital of Graz, where the KPÖ even provides the mayor, it plays no role and carries no weight in elections.
With Dominik Wlazny, the SPÖ could be pressured from the left in the future, especially because of the wink,
that the beer party has in its program, so to speak, and that other left-wing groups and especially the KPÖ so completely lack.
The result of the presidential election on Sunday will also show how serious this competition from the left could be.
Social Media Moment of the Week:
Local council elections were held in Burgenland on Sunday.
The SPÖ relies on a very male team, so you like to keep to yourself.
However, the party was still able to grow.
Stories we recommend you today:
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A presidential election campaign without social media would be unthinkable – but small campaigns quickly reach their limits.
Presidential disenchantment:
The challengers in the presidential election seem increasingly confused, the incumbent sluggish.
What to do with the protest?
After Ibiza, the FPÖ was able to gain a foothold again, as polls and the election results in Tyrol show.
However, the FPÖ is no longer alone as a protest movement, many are pushing to the political surface, both right and left.
Thank you for
your attention, I remain with best regards from Vienna, Michael Völker
And once again a note on our own behalf: You can order this briefing as a newsletter to your e-mail inbox here.