On October 4, North Korea fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile into the eastern waters of the Korean Peninsula, the fifth time in 10 days.
Han Jun speculated that the missile should have been launched from the vicinity of Mupyeong-ri, Jagangdo, northern North Korea. The missile was a medium-range ballistic missile with a range of 4,500 kilometers and a height of 970 kilometers.
Prior to this, North Korea fired one missile from Taechon, North Pyongan Province on September 25, two from Sunan, Pyongyang on September 28, two from Suncheon, South Pyongyang on October 1, Two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) were fired in the Sunan area of Pyongyang.
According to statistics, since 2022, North Korea has launched 21 ballistic missiles and two cruise missiles. This is the ninth time North Korea has launched a missile since the new South Korean government took power.
In particular, the missile flew over Japan's airspace. The Japanese government issued an alert through the National Instant Alert System (J-ALERT), saying that "North Korea's missile seems to be flying over Japan to the Pacific Ocean" and called on the public to stay indoors for a while. Avoid, and warns not to approach if suspicious objects are found.
Residents in Hokkaido, Aomori Prefecture and Tokyo were even more alerted to evacuation, and trains in the first two districts were temporarily suspended.
According to Japanese government officials, no reports of victims have been received so far.
This was the seventh time a North Korean missile flew over Japanese airspace, the previous time being in September 2017.
Japan's Prime Minister's Office said today that North Korea fired at least one ballistic missile over Japan and then crashed into the Pacific Ocean outside its exclusive economic waters. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida strongly condemned North Korea's "barbaric" behavior.
Interestingly, this incident seems to be an interaction between the two sides, but it is actually about the United States on the other side of the Pacific Ocean.
For North Korea, intimidating Japan is only an appearance, and deterrence against the United States is the goal. Coincidentally, although Japan cannot know in advance that North Korea is about to test a missile, it can use this to add fuel to its demands for military expansion and promote the process of "national normalization".
At 8:20 a.m. on October 4, 2022 Hong Kong time, Japan's Kyodo News quoted the Ministry of Defense as saying that an object that may have been a ballistic missile launched by North Korea appeared to have fallen.
As a result, the Japanese government issued an alert through the National Instantaneous Alert System (J-ALERT) that North Korean missiles appeared to be flying over Japan to the Pacific Ocean.
Residents in Hokkaido, Aomori prefecture and Tokyo have issued evacuation alerts.
The picture shows the warning that the Japanese people saw on TV.
(AP)
North Korea: North Korea-Japan relations are North Korea-US relations
Intuitively, the missile test is indeed a military activity, so parties often analyze North Korea's military considerations and goals after the incident occurs.
For example, Yonhap News Agency quoted expert analysis as saying that North Korea has frequently launched projectiles in recent days, intending to evaluate and enhance its projectile capabilities in various environments, while collecting relevant data in order to break through the interception system of the South Korean military.
Some views say that North Korea has recently launched a series of short-range ballistic missiles and may launch an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) in the future, further escalating the provocation.
From a long-term perspective, however, North Korea's military struggle has always served the political framework.
From the perspective of DPRK-Japan relations, the two countries have yet to normalize their diplomatic relations. In addition to the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, there is also the historical case of the "kidnapping issue", which has not been completely resolved through repeated high-level contacts between the two sides.
After North Korea launched a satellite in February 2016, Japan announced a number of sanctions against North Korea. North Korea accused Japan of sabotaging the "Stockholm Agreement" signed by the two countries in 2014, and announced the dissolution of the "Special Investigation Committee on the Kidnapping Issue". deadlock.
Since then, Japan's sanctions against the DPRK have gradually increased, and North Korea launched a ballistic missile over Hokkaido in 2017, marking the first time a North Korean missile flew over the Japanese archipelago since 2009.
This move led to the sound of air defense sirens in Japan and the call for people to take shelter indoors or in underground air raid shelters. The then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe even criticized "this is an unprecedented threat".
On October 4, 2022, after Japan issued a warning about a North Korean missile launch, an electronic notice board at Sapporo Station in Hokkaido showed that train services were affected as a result.
The electronic notice board showed that trains in Sapporo and Aomori were suspended until further notice.
North Korea fired a medium- and long-range ballistic missile that day, the first time a North Korean missile flew over Japan in five years.
(AP)
However, the relationship between the DPRK and Japan is not only the relationship between the two countries, but also a direct product of the relationship between the DPRK and the United States.
To a large extent, if the relationship between the DPRK and the United States is relatively relaxed, Japan will have space to engage in diplomatic interaction with the DPRK. Whether it is to discuss sanctions or jointly resolve the "kidnapping issue", the relationship between the DPRK and Japan will likely recover.
For example, the 2014 North Korea-Japan "Stockholm Agreement" and the "Special Investigation Committee on the Kidnapping Issue" benefited from the 2013 relaxation of the DPRK and the United States.
However, once the DPRK-US relationship becomes tense, it will be extremely difficult for Japan to stay out of it, and it will also be tough on the DPRK, thus causing the DPRK-Japan relationship to fall into a low ebb.
For example, from March 7 to April 30, 2016, the United States and South Korea conducted two annual joint military exercises, "Key Decision" and "Harrier Eagle", which were the largest joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea since the Tianan ship incident in March 2010. ; Since March 1, 2017, South Korea and the United States have held the two-month annual "Vulture" joint military exercise, which is the largest ever; during this period, Japan has also begun to increase its sanctions against North Korea.
All these measures contributed to the fact that on August 29 and September 15 of the same year, North Korea twice tested ballistic missiles to fly over Japan's airspace.
From the standpoint of North Korea, it has become clear in the long struggle that the relationship between the DPRK and Japan is ultimately the relationship between the DPRK and the United States, so the next step to deter Japan is to deter the United States.
The recent missile test launch may be a direct response to the US-South Korea joint military exercise on September 26 and the US-Japan-South Korea joint anti-submarine exercise on September 30.
On October 4, 2022, South Koreans watched TV news reports about North Korea's missile test on a big screen at a Seoul train station.
Pyongyang's government fired missiles that flew over eastern waters, rattling neighboring South Korea and Japan.
(AP)
Japan: Missiles cannot be intercepted but can be used
On the Japanese side, it was indeed frightened repeatedly by North Korea's missile test; but now with the change in its internal political atmosphere, this "fright" seems to be beginning to deteriorate.
From a practical point of view, the North Korean missile test is more of a political issue than a military issue for Japan.
First of all, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force is equipped with the Aegis ballistic missile defense system (Aegis), which can be intercepted in the ascent stage of the missile. However, in the face of the extremely close North Korea, Aegis has lost a certain degree of early warning opportunity, and basically cannot The missile's ascent stage is attacked.
In addition, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force is also equipped with short-range Patriot PAC-3 anti-aircraft missiles, which can be destroyed when the missile begins to land towards the target.
However, this type of air defense missile can only intercept short- and medium-range ballistic missiles with a range of less than 1,000 kilometers, and the maximum combat altitude is only 15 kilometers. However, the missiles tested by North Korea and flying over Japan's airspace are all medium-range and higher than this. Ballistic missiles, so Patriots are useless.
At this disadvantage, in the face of the DPRK's multiple test launches, Japan can only give up the interception. After all, it can also infer from the flight trajectory that the missile will only "fly over" rather than "attack" Japan.
Therefore, although this information is used to issue an alert in advance and notify the public to evacuate, he also knows that the probability of "difficulties" is extremely low.
However, by issuing alerts, stopping trains, and condemning North Korea afterwards, the Japanese government will be able to create an atmosphere in which national security is threatened, gain some public attention, and even create an excuse for military expansion.
Members of the Japan Self-Defense Forces work in a tense atmosphere after receiving a report of a North Korean missile launch in the meeting room of the Hokkaido government office in Sapporo, northern Japan, on October 4, 2022.
North Korea fired a medium- and long-range ballistic missile that day over Japan for the first time in five years, forcing Japan to issue an evacuation notice and suspend trains in what some see as an escalated warning by North Korea for a weapons test against South Korea.
(AP)
For example, the aforementioned Aegis and Patriot's disadvantage in intercepting North Korea has become the narrative basis for Japanese hardliners to advocate "purchasing more anti-missile systems."
Since 2015, it has been rumored that Japan may deploy the THAAD system to deal with the North Korean missile threat, but this option has been gradually replaced by the ground-based Aegis anti-missile system.
There are even voices in Japan suggesting that it should deploy equipment that can intercept or even destroy North Korean missiles at the moment of launch.
For many years, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces have been restricted by the pacifist constitution and the "principle of exclusive defense" and have not been able to make drastic measures in the development, procurement and deployment of armaments. In addition to gradually reversing the nature of the Self-Defense Forces, we will push forward the process of amending the constitution and take a step closer to "national normalization".
In recent years, in addition to the "North Korean threat", there has been more narrative of "something in the Taiwan Strait".
After the assassination of Shinzo Abe, Fumio Kishida publicly stated that he would inherit Abe's "revision of the constitution"; on October 3, Japan's 210th Provisional Congress opened, Kishida delivered a policy speech, saying that considering China and North Korea, he would During the year, Japan will thoroughly strengthen Japan's defense capabilities, including discussions on "counter-attack capability (capacity to attack enemy bases)", and revise three security-related documents during the year. At the same time, it is expected that the Diet will propose amendments to the constitution and speed up discuss.
Now that North Korea's test-fired missiles are flying over Japan's airspace, the Kishida government must have more confidence to promote the above ideas.
Whether it is North Korea's deterrence against the United States, or Japan's intention to promote "national normalization", they all indicate the loosening and deterioration of the order in Northeast Asia.
77 years after the end of World War II, the rareness of peace should be remembered. Compared with the fierce battle between Russia and Ukraine in the distance, the ruthlessness of the war should be unforgettable.
【North Korea Missile Q&A】
What is the real purpose of North Korea's test-fired missile flying over Japan's airspace?
strategic deterrence against the United States
Why doesn't Japan intercept North Korean missiles?
North Korea is too close, and the test-launched missile has a large height and range, and Japan's existing anti-missile system is unable to intercept it.
Japan, South Korea, and the United States strongly condemn North Korea's missile launch. The South Korean military will strengthen its anti-missile and special operations capabilities. North Korean missiles may fly over northeastern Japan. Strengthening Japan's National Defense Force Abe's State Funeral and the 50th Anniversary of the Establishment of China-Japan Diplomatic Relations: The Game of Pacifism and Constitutional Amendment Forces
