By Mike Memoli, Peter Nicholas and Carol E. Lee -
NBC News
As they plan President Joe Biden's legislative agenda for after the November election, members of the administration are considering whether changes to the immigration system should be one of their main policy thrusts, according to White House officials and other knowledgeable sources. of the internal debate.
The talks are taking place among a small group of Biden aides, though the president has yet to make a decision, these sources said.
The details of immigration policy, as well as its scope, will depend on the composition of Congress and the political climate, they said.
Asylum seekers in Yuma on September 26. John Moore/Getty Images
This situation shows that, as Biden prepares to fight for re-election with a campaign based on the slogan "Promises Kept", his advisers know that immigration remains a 2020 electoral promise that remains unfulfilled.
Republicans, for their part, have sought to use the issue against Democrats ahead of the November election, decrying record numbers of illegal border crossings, putting Biden and the Democratic Party on the defensive, even as they claim that they are the ones striving to find a bipartisan solution.
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“The challenge is that the Republicans have absolute control over any progress,” explained Cecilia Muñoz, who was director of the Domestic Policy Council in the Barack Obama White House.
Biden sent Congress a bill to overhaul the immigration system on his first day in office.
But he has not spent any political capital to push it through in nearly two years even though Democrats controlled the House and Senate.
Now, however, some White House officials believe that elevating immigration to the top of the president's agenda could benefit him, regardless of the November election result: either he achieves a bipartisan agreement on revamping the immigration system, or presents the Republican Party as a group determined to block immigration.
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“There is the desire to do immigration policy,” said a person familiar with the discussions.
“Then there is reality, she pointed out.
“He got most of the things he campaigned for done in two years,” this source said of the president.
“Immigration is really the one big thing that still needs to be done,” he said.
A new poll by Noticias Telemundo and NBC News shows that Latino voters are nearly split on Biden, with 51% approving of the job he is doing and 45% disapproving.
Republicans, meanwhile, continue to cut their lead over Democrats, according to the poll.
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Latino voters prefer Republicans when it comes to crime, the economy and border security, according to the survey.
But they also believe Democrats would do a better job than Republicans on immigration, as well as health care, abortion and addressing their community's concerns.
The White House talks also reflect advisers' view that Biden can turn around attacks from the Republican Party, which has used immigration with some success to weaken him heading into midterm elections.
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The Republican governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, has caused controversy by moving thousands of migrants from the border to states governed by Democrats since the spring, an operation that the White House calls a political maneuver.
In recent weeks, the White House has offered only a muted response, as border crossings from Mexico into the United States have reached nearly 8,000 daily, according to data obtained by NBC News.
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"I think the administration is sometimes unsure how to articulate a response to a complex problem when juxtaposed with a sticker or an insensitive gimmick," said Angela Kelley, who until earlier this year was a senior counsel at the Department of Homeland Security. .
The White House has also come under increasing pressure from immigration advocates, who want the president to make a big push on the issue and believe he hasn't done enough so far.
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“It's not enough to say, 'Look what they [Republicans] will do to you,'” said Gabriela Domenzain, who was Obama's re-election campaign spokeswoman on immigration in 2012. “You have to say, 'This is what what will I do', and then defend it and talk about it.
But it's not happening,” she added.
Biden has underlined in his public appearances what Democrats could achieve if they added just two seats to their majority in the Senate, which is currently split 50% - the vice president is in charge of breaking ties when necessary.
For example, he has repeatedly cited the right to abortion, but has only recently raised the issue of immigration, both times at Hispanic Heritage Month events, which began Sept. 15.
I think that the Administration is sometimes not sure how to articulate a response to a complex problem"
Angela Kelley, former National Security Advisor
The White House is publicly expressing its confidence in the Democrats' chances in the midterm elections, and strategy sessions are being held in the West Wing to pursue multiple paths for Biden based on the various outcomes.
Biden aides see the possibility of further advancing his economic agenda, an effort to ban assault weapons and codify abortion and privacy rights, if Democrats maintain narrow majorities in the House of Representatives and in the Senate, for example, or even expand their majority in the Senate.
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But officials are bracing for the most likely outcome: Republicans taking control of at least the House of Representatives, if not both.
They have beefed up the White House counsel's office and communications staff to prepare for an expected spate of Republican-led investigations into the government's response to COVID-19, and into the business and personal activities of Hunter Biden, the son of the President.
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Republicans plan to question Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who oversees immigration, if they gain control of the House, congressional sources said.
Armed with subpoena power, a Republican-controlled House would hold hearings to examine the Biden Administration's border control policies and its handling of immigration, aides said.
Any political push from Biden is likely to include more than just legislative proposals, including immigration.
The White House is already considering executive action to address some aspects of immigration policy in the absence of movement from Congress, specifically to try to protect the status of many Dreamers — migrants who were brought to the country as children but lack status. legal status and were granted protection under the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program.
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However, executive action on immigration is limited, and inevitably faces court challenges.
“I know there is defense pressure on the White House to do something,” Muñoz admitted.
“What they can do is extremely limited.
The executive actions that the president has taken have been contested.
And the results have not been good in the courts,” he added.
However, the thinking around immigration represents how Biden's potential 2024 presidential campaign aligns more with a legislative strategy.
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A more concerted push on immigration legislation would allow Biden to say he is working harder to deliver on an important campaign promise and potentially put Republicans in a tough spot.
Republicans are facing conflicting demands from two key groups: the business community, which wants to expand the workforce with additional legal migration, and a powerful base, led by former President Donald Trump, demanding tougher border enforcement. .
A White House official said that if Republicans win only a narrow majority in the House, potential future President Kevin McCarthy would be under pressure from more moderate members to make progress, potentially opening the door to at least modest changes. .
What they can do is extremely limited.
The executive actions that the president has taken have been challenged
What they can do is extremely limited.
The executive actions that the president has taken have been challenged."
cecilia muñoz ex adviser to barack obama
That could be wishful thinking, according to people who worked on previous immigration reform efforts.
Republican lawmakers have concluded that they can mobilize their voters by showing the flaws in the system, rather than working with their Democratic counterparts to find a compromise, they contend.
"Immigration reform has always been a bipartisan issue, and it wasn't until Trump that the Republicans moved away and became the party of no immigration," said Tyler Moran, Biden's former White House adviser on immigration issues.
“Now, immigration is used solely as a political wedge issue and a grassroots motivator.
Ultimately, the challenges we face at the border and with our immigration system can only be resolved through legislation,” he added.
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Republicans disagree with that idea, although some GOP lawmakers have publicly signaled their willingness to try to advance immigration legislation.
Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas wrote an op-ed last week promoting a bill he has introduced with Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona to help improve enforcement efficiency and processing at the border, which could be the starting point for legislation in the new Congress.
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Meanwhile, a bipartisan group of lawmakers has been quietly discussing immigration issues this year and could be open to a push on the issue from Biden, should he do so, though the talks have been modest in scope.
Members of the House and Senate have held talks about expanding visas for migrants who work in agriculture, construction and other crucial industries, said a person from the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
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Congress could address a bill that greenlights more immigrant worker visas after the midterm elections, this lawmaker said.
Republicans might go along with it because the permits would not offer a pathway to citizenship, meaning new immigrant workers "won't be able to vote against these guys in 10 years," the lawmaker added.
Sinema said in a recent speech on bipartisanship: “We have been hampered by political borders at both ends of the spectrum — one party that demands only border walls and security and another party that wants amnesty for millions of people.
The reality is that we have to address both our security and labor needs.”