The figure was known: Bercy is counting, within the framework of its 2023 budget, on a welcome increase in the purchasing power of the French of 0.9%, after a year of stability.
With inflation expected at 4.2%, "
under the assumption of a decline in the price of oil to 88 euros per barrel of Brent"
, the estimate might seem a bit optimistic.
An appendix to the finance bill, the social and financial economic report (RESF), published on Tuesday, makes it possible to better understand the springs of this forecast.
First explanation: the government expects a very good performance of wage income.
The average salary per head would increase, by 4.1% in 2023 after 3.6% in 2022. Unprecedented increases, which would almost follow the level of inflation, without however triggering the famous price-wage loop at the origin of self-sustaining inflation.
According to the ideal scenario drawn up by economists at Bercy, price increases would indeed fall back from 2024.
Soaring prices: is the slowdown in inflation here to stay?
Along with these negotiations...
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