"Israel Hayom" and "Mind Pool" survey: a 60:60 tie between the right-wing bloc and the center-left bloc | Israel today

While the political parties are preparing for the final stretch of the election campaign, which will begin immediately after the holidays, the survey map indicates absolute equality between the blocs.

Although the Likud is the largest party followed by the Yesh Atid party by a considerable margin, the estimates were and remain that this election may also be decided on the basis of a mandate.

A survey by "Israel Hayom" and the "Mind Pool" institute under the management of Prof. Yitzhak Katz, conducted at the beginning of the week, indicates that if the elections had been held today, the Netanyahu bloc and the Lapid bloc would have been in absolute equality of 60:60.

But this time the survey also checked the confidence rate in voting for the first time, that is, what were the results today only among those who said that they would come to the polls with one hundred percent certainty on election day, and would not prefer to go to the sea or other places.

Among the safe, the right-wing bloc increases to 64 seats.

The percentage of confident Likud voters has increased, while in the Arab sector the percentage of confident voters is low.

The survey was conducted among 511 respondents who are a representative sample of the population in Israel with the right to vote.

The statistical sampling error is plus or minus 4.4%.

The most determined to vote

And these are the results: if the elections had been held today, the Likud party led by Netanyahu would have received 32 mandates.

It is followed by Atid with 24 mandates.

Religious Zionism, the third largest party, with 13 mandates, followed by the state camp with 11 mandates.

Havoda and Meretz pass the blocking percentage and each receive 6. Shas receives 8 and Torah Judaism 7 mandates. Ra'am and Hadash-Ta'al receive 4 mandates each and Israel Beytinu with 5. The parties of the Jewish Home, Balad, Freedom Economic, young people are on fire and the economic party do not pass the blocking percentage.

Parties that do not pass the blocking percentage: The Jewish Home led by Ayelet Shaked 2.0%;

The New Economic Party led by Yaron Zelicha 0.9%;

Economic Freedom led by Abir Kara 0.7%;

Balad led by Sami Abu Shahada 0.6%; Free and Democratic Israel led by Eli Avidar 0%; Youth on Fire led by Hadar Mokhtar 0%; other parties 0.6%.

The survey examined, as mentioned, the degree of confidence in participating in the elections.

58% of the respondents said that they would definitely come to vote on election day.

Another 21% said they would come to vote with a high probability.

The public that is most determined to come to the polls, it seems from the survey, is the religious-nationalist public, 70% of which said they would definitely go to the polls on election day.

After him, those who define themselves as secular, with 64% certainty.

Of those who define themselves as traditional, 56% answered that they would definitely come to vote.

They are followed by the ultra-Orthodox and the ultra-Orthodox with 51%. The Arab sector receives only 32% certain participation.

Knesset of Israel, photo: Noam Rivkin Fenton

Putting a note in the ballot box, photo: Liron Moldovan

This is why the mandate map changes completely when you check only those who will definitely come to vote.

In such a case Hadash-Ta'al does not pass the percentage of blocking, and the right-wing bloc increases to 64 mandates.

On the question of suitability for the prime ministership, Binyamin Netanyahu continues to lead safely with 41%.

He is followed by Yair Lapid with only 27%.

Benny Gantz with 10%.

Benny Gantz

Third place respectively, photo: Yossi Zeliger

Marev Michaeli.

Passes the blocking percentage, photo: Koko

Bezalel Smotrich.

The third largest party, photo: Oren Cohen

The majority of the public believes that the Balad party has no place in the Knesset and that it should be disqualified, as decided by the Central Election Committee. 51% of respondents said that Balad should be disqualified.

Only 18% said that it should not be dismissed.

31% said that they did not know or gave other answers.

The public expressed a less decisive position regarding the disqualification of Amichai Shekley from the Likud list.

27% in favor of disqualification, 31% against and 42% did not express an opinion.

The survey also examined the public's position regarding the tenure of Itamar Ben Gabir Kosher in the government.

44% answered that his appointment as a minister would be legitimate, 40% said that his appointment as a minister would be illegitimate.

And is this the last round of elections for now?

Not at all safe.

Most of the respondents, 42%, said that they believe that we are headed for another election system.

Only 31% believe that at the end of this election a government will be formed.

while 27% simply do not know how these elections will end.

And what does the public think about the Prime Minister who started serving but not long ago?

35% believe that Yair Lapid's performance is bad or very bad.

37% believe that his performance is good or very good.

21% don't know.

In the survey, we also examined the level of concern of the public about the economic situation.

75% of Israelis are worried about their financial situation: 46% are worried to a very great extent or to a great extent about their financial situation.

29% of respondents reported being moderately concerned.

Only 25% are not worried at all or a little worried about their financial situation.

The survey was conducted by Brainpool - an interdisciplinary research and consulting institute Ltd. under the direction of Prof. Yitzhak Katz.

The sampling method - combined: Internet and telephone panel.

The survey was conducted on 02.10.2022 and 03.10.2022, among 511 people, who are a representative sample of the adult population in Israel (18 years old and older).

The sampling allows drawing conclusions at a confidence level of 95%, with a sampling error of 4.4%.

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