How far does Putin go?

Bundeswehr strategy expert assesses the danger of using nuclear weapons

Created: 05/10/2022, 07:08

By: Klaus Rimpel, Leonie Hudelmaier

Russia regularly presents its nuclear weapons at parades.

(Archive image) © Sergei Chirikov/dpa

With the Russian setbacks in the Ukraine war, the fear of using nuclear weapons increases.

To what extent does Putin allow the situation to escalate?

Munich/Kyiv – The Ukrainian military has managed another important counterattack during its offensive.

According to their own statements, the Ukrainian soldiers were able to liberate other towns from Russian troops in southern Ukraine.

The head of the presidential office, Andriy Yermak, wrote yesterday to the Telegram news service about five places that had been recaptured.

Videos from the long-contested village of Davydiv Brid and the villages of Velyka Oleksandrivka and Starossillya on the Inhulets River have been circulating on the Internet.

The Ukrainian units are also said to have moved into Dudchany on the Dnipro River.

The partial mobilization that has been underway since September 21 also seems to be anything but going according to plan for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

According to British military experts, the Russian state is no longer able to provide sufficient equipment and military training for a large number of recruits for the Ukraine war.

A sign of this: the conscription cycle this year will start a month later than usual, the British Ministry of Defense said yesterday.

The annual call-up of around 120,000 conscripts in Russia differs from the recently decided partial mobilization of reservists.

"The challenges of housing, training, equipping and deploying mobilized and conscripted personnel are significant," the ministry concluded.

Video: Russian nuclear special forces heading towards the border

Ukraine war comes to a head: How a strategy expert estimates Putin

These Russian setbacks are fueling fears that Putin, in desperation, might resort to nuclear weapons.

"The signals of the last few days suggest that Putin has deliberately increased the risk of an escalation beyond the nuclear borders after the severe setbacks his armed forces in Ukraine suffered," said Dr.

Frank Sauer, strategy expert at the Bundeswehr University in Neubiberg of our newspaper.

But that's no reason to panic.

"Putin should know that the costs he would be burdened with after the use of a nuclear weapon would dramatically exceed the benefits," Sauer said.

It is now helpful that "the USA is currently sending very clear deterrent signals to Putin, should he really make moves to cross the nuclear limit".

With the partial mobilization, Putin had announced: "If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will of course use all means at our disposal to defend Russia and our people." He added: "This is not a bluff."

How far does Putin go?

Three "nuclear suitcases" in Russia

But who could actually order an atomic bomb use in Moscow?

“There are three 'nuclear suitcases' in Russia that can be used to command the nuclear forces.

One is always close to President Putin, one is with Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and one with Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov,” said strategy expert Sauer.

For a while there was the assumption that Putin would need the approval of at least one other “suitcase owner” for a nuclear strike, but new findings seem to refute that.

"According to the most recent statements by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Putin seems to be able to decide on his own," said Sauer.

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But even if Putin were to resort to the last resort, Sauer is firmly of the opinion that “there would be no nuclear response” from the West to a tactical nuclear weapon.

Instead, Putin would be “completely isolated internationally”.

Because China and India would also turn their backs on Russia.