Development of the corona numbers: "Wiesn effect" particularly noticeable in the Munich area?

Created: 06/10/2022, 08:40

By: Lucas Sauter-Orengo

The Oktoberfest in Munich is over, the corona numbers in the surrounding area are initially increasing more than in the city.

The current trend.

Update from October 6, 8:17 a.m .:

The 7-day incidence in Munich has risen sharply compared to the previous day - as was to be expected.

If the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) put the value at 708.9 yesterday, it was 813.7 this morning.

To speak of an “explosion” in numbers would be going too far in this context.

In the RKI table, there are currently well over 20 cities and districts ahead of the Isar metropolis.

After Oktoberfest: Corona numbers are increasing sharply in the Munich area

Striking: In the nationwide "Top 10" there are four districts in the Munich area: Fürstenfeldbruck, Ebersberg, Dachau and Starnberg - all with incidence values ​​above 1000. Many Oktoberfest visitors come from the regions mentioned, and some others also found there in September folk festivals.

A connection with the celebrations on the Theresienwiese has not been proven, but seems obvious.

It is to be expected that the incidence values ​​will continue to rise over the weekend.

Update from October 5, 6:17 a.m

.: Corona was already rampant in Munich during the Wiesn.

It remains to be seen how sick Munich actually is.

After the long weekend, the health authorities reported numbers again for the first time:

This emerges from the data from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) on Wednesday (October 5, as of 3:08 a.m.).

After Wiesn: Corona numbers in Munich are shooting through the roof

The 7-day incidence is therefore 708.9.

Whether the corona situation in Munich can be read from this?

For comparison: On October 1, the value was 843.3 (1,710 new infections).

The city of Munich expressly points out on its website that the dynamic development due to the delay in reporting "can lead to an 

 of the 7-day incidence".

According to experts, however, the incidence hardly plays a role anymore.

Much more important is the number of seriously ill Covid patients in the clinics.

In the Munich hospitals, 478 beds are currently occupied with confirmed Covid cases, 39 of which are intensive care beds (Intensive Care Unit, ICU) and 13 beds in intensive care (Intermediate Care, IMC), the city of Munich announced (as of October 4). .

Compared to the previous week (September 27th), this is a whopping plus of 181 corona beds.

It will probably not stay with this bed occupancy in the hospitals.

Until the increasing number of infections is reflected in the clinics, some water will still flow down the Isar, since some time elapses between an infection and a possible hospital admission.

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However, there is still some hope: At the first Oktoberfest balance sheet on Sunday, Wiesn boss Clemens Baumgärtner emphasized that the proportion of Wiesn visitors was getting younger and younger.

In the first nine days, 18 to 29 year olds accounted for around 21 percent of adult visitors.

Younger people are usually better at coping with a corona infection.

Munich - The Oktoberfest is over.

After a two-year Corona break, there were celebrations again on the Theresienwiese in Munich.

However, what many experts had already feared appears to be happening now.

The number of infections in the state capital is currently increasing rapidly.

This development could already be observed during the Wiesn.

Now this trend is also reflected in the clinics.

Oktoberfest: Corona numbers in Munich continue to rise – the effects are now noticeable in clinics

On Tuesday, the city reported a total of 478 hospital beds occupied by corona patients in normal, intensive care and transitional wards.

That was an increase of 61 percent from Tuesday last week.

Compared to the last day before the Oktoberfest starts, the increase is even 137 percent.

On the normal wards, the numbers have been increasing significantly for over a week.

In the meantime, however, the upward trend has also reached the intensive care units.

The Corona numbers in Bavaria are also increasing due to the Oktoberfest in Munich.

© Wolfgang Maria Weber / IMAGO

Munich: Corona increase due to Oktoberfest?

Bed occupancy is increasing rapidly

On Tuesday, the city reported 39 occupied beds, 15 more than a week ago.

Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD) expects the numbers to increase further.

"We will then see more severe courses with a delay of maybe ten to fourteen days and then also a load in the intensive care units," said Lauterbach on the RTL / ntv program "Frühstart".

"It is a pity that it has come to this." A sharp increase in incidences has been observed in Munich since last week.

A connection with the Oktoberfest is obvious and is also made by experts.

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However, it usually takes some time before increasing incidences are reflected in hospitals, since there is a time lag between infection and possible hospital admission.

The officially reported incidence in Munich and Bavaria fell on Tuesday, but that was an effect of the public holiday on Monday.

The health authorities did not report any new cases to the Robert Koch Institute, but reports from last Monday were not counted.

In all likelihood, the incidence will rise again significantly on Wednesday.