France's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to stagnate this fall, but fears over energy supply and high inflation pose "
serious threats
" to growth in Europe, INSEE said on Thursday.
In its economic report, the National Institute of Statistics maintained its growth forecast of 2.6% in 2022 for France, but does not rule out a decline in activity in the fourth quarter in the event of economic difficulties. energy supply and production stoppages.
INSEE bases its forecast on modest growth in the third quarter (+0.2%, as announced in the September economic update) after a dynamic second quarter (+0.5%), is it specified in this note entitled "
An autumn full of threats for Europe
".
Uncertainty hangs over the last three months of the year due to a "
darkening international scenario
", said Julien Pouget, head of the economic situation department at INSEE on Thursday during a press conference. .
“
Slowdown in international trade between now and the end of the year, inflation which remains high, concerns specific to Europe on energy supplies,
“, he listed to illustrate the threats to French but also global growth.
Fears over “possible production stoppages”
The forecast of GDP stagnation in the fourth quarter is therefore an “
intermediate scenario
” which includes
the “resilience
” of certain indicators but also the “
fears associated with possible production stoppages
” in industry.
Inflation, contained in September (5.6% over one year) in particular thanks to the rebate at the pump, should decrease slightly in October then "
would rise again
" in November with the reduction in the rebate on fuel, for to reach 6.4% over one year in December (against 6.6% previously forecast).
Over the year, the inflation forecast drops from 5.3% to 5.2%, a much better forecast than for other European countries thanks to the "
fixing of energy prices
" and the "
public policies implemented in place to limit price increases
," says Julien Pouget.
However, the rise in prices is weighing on household purchasing power, which should fall more than expected in 2022 (-0.6% according to the indicator per consumption unit, against -0.5% initially expected).
If the support measures make it possible to limit energy prices, it is food which, since September, weighs the most with inflation expected year-on-year at nearly 12% at the end of the year.
