Last polls for the Lower Saxony election: SPD hopes for victory - FDP and left on the brink

Created: 06/10/2022 05:25

By: Florian Naumann, Max Schäfer, Fabian Müller

The election in Lower Saxony 2022 is imminent, but who will win?

Polls for the state election show a clear trend.

Update from October 5, 3 p.m.:

Another survey on the upcoming Lower Saxony election sees the SPD in the lead: In an Insa survey for the

published on Tuesday , the party came to 31 percent.

The CDU, led by Deputy Prime Minister Bernd Althusmann, estimated the pollsters at 28 percent.

The Greens were 16 percent, the AfD came to eleven percent.

The FDP was located at five percent and must therefore worry about entering the state parliament.

The left, which is currently not represented in the state parliament, was four percent and would fail again at the five percent hurdle.

1000 people were interviewed for the survey.

They were interviewed between Thursday last week and Tuesday.

New survey for the Lower Saxony election: SPD can easily settle - two wobbly candidates have to tremble

Update from September 30, 2:23 p.m.:

A new survey on the upcoming state elections in Lower Saxony was also published on Friday.

The opinion research institute Forschungsgruppe Wahlen carried out this for the ZDF political barometer.

In the current poll, Prime Minister Stephan Weil's SPD continues to lead the field as the strongest force with 32 percent of the votes.

The second strongest force behind the Social Democrats remains the CDU, which stands at 27 percent - a deficit of five percentage points.

Most recently, the gap between the CDU and SPD in surveys by other institutes was sometimes significantly smaller.

In a survey by Infratest dimap on behalf of ARD on Thursday, the Christian Democrats were only two percentage points behind.

In the current survey, the Greens are again well below the 20 percent mark with 16 percent.

With currently 5 percent, the FDP even has to tremble about a re-entry into the state parliament in Hanover.

It will also be tight for the left, which failed at the five percent hurdle in the last state election.

In the current survey, the party is at 4 percent.

The AfD is in double digits with 11 percent.

The Wahlen research group interviewed a total of 1023 randomly selected people for the survey between September 26 and September 29, 2022.

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New poll for the Lower Saxony election: CDU is up to two percentage points behind the SPD

Update from September 29, 6:14 p.m .:

According to a new survey, the SPD around Prime Minister Stephan Weil is still just ahead of the CDU a few days before the state elections in Lower Saxony.

pre-election poll published on Thursday evening

, the Social Democrats came to 32 percent, the coalition partner CDU with Weil challenger Bernd Althusmann to 30 percent.

The SPD thus remains at the level of the previous week, while the CDU can gain two percentage points.

According to the figures, the Greens lose one percentage point and come to 16 percent, the FDP still has to worry about entering the state parliament with 5 percent.

The AfD remains unchanged at 9 percent, the left would not move into the state parliament with 3 percent.

New survey for the Lower Saxony election causes concern for the CDU – and also for two wobbly candidates

Update from September 29

: Just over a week before the elections in Lower Saxony, Prime Minister Stephan Weil's SPD is still ahead in a new poll.

In the Forsa survey published by daily newspapers in Lower Saxony on Wednesday evening, the Social Democrats came to 31 percent.

The CDU around Vice Prime Minister and State Minister for Economic Affairs Bernd Althusmann reached 27 percent.

The Greens have 19 percent, the AfD nine percent.

The FDP reached five percent and would have to worry about re-entering the state parliament in Hanover.

The situation is clearer on the left, which, according to the survey, fails at the five percent hurdle with three percent.

A new state parliament will be elected in Lower Saxony on October 9th.

A grand coalition of SPD and CDU currently governs there.

Polls for the Lower Saxony election: SPD ahead of CDU

First report from September 26th

: Hanover – Three federal states have already elected a new state parliament in 2022, the next one will follow: On October 9th, 2022, the elections will take place in Lower Saxony.

More than six million eligible voters are called upon to cast their votes at the polling station or by postal ballot.

In doing so, they decide which parties will enter the state parliament and who has the best chance of becoming the state government.

Former Prime Minister Stephan Weil hopes that his SPD will also receive the most votes in the Lower Saxony elections.

The CDU, on the other hand, wants to reverse the power structure and, for the first time since 2013, have the largest parliamentary group in the state parliament.

However, the decision for the state election will not be made until the election date, October 9, 2022. The parties and other people interested in politics will have to be patient until then.

Polls before the election in Lower Saxony show a clear trend

However, polls also reflect the mood in the state before the election in Lower Saxony.

They show which parties have the best chances and which parties have to worry about entering the state parliament.

Stephan Weil (right) and the SPD are ahead in polls ahead of the elections in Lower Saxony.

Bern Althusmann (left) is in second place with his CDU.

(Archive photo) © Julian Stratenschulte/dpa

Before the state elections in Lower Saxony, Stephan Weil and the SPD are in the lead.

According to an election trend by the online service

, the Social Democrats are between 31 and 35 percent.

Apart from two polls by the institute for constituency forecasts on August 5 and 20, the Social Democrats relegated the CDU (27.5 to 29 percent) to second place.

The Greens (15.5 to 19 percent) are the third strongest force in all surveys.

AfD (7 to 9 percent) and FDP (5 to 6 percent) make the state parliament complete.

According to all surveys, the left (2.5 to 4 percent) fails at the five percent hurdle.

Latest survey: FDP must tremble in the election in Lower Saxony

Even in the weeks just before the elections in Lower Saxony, the SPD was able to defend its lead of 32 percent (as of September 26, 2022).

According to the survey by the

institute, the CDU is four percentage points behind the Social Democrats.

The Greens get 17 percent.

The fourth strongest party is the AfD, which can convince nine percent of those surveyed.

With five percent, the FDP just manages to get into the state parliament, while the left (four percent) fails again because of the threshold clause.

According to the latest survey, the big winners of the election in Lower Saxony could be the Greens: Compared to the last state election in 2017, they win significantly and can almost double their result.

All other parties apart from the AfD, on the other hand, are losing votes – including the SPD of incumbent Prime Minister Stephan Weil.

Despite the lead in the polls, a lot can still happen before the elections in Lower Saxony.

In any case, the decision is not made until the day of the election, when the first forecasts and projections provide an indication of the later provisional and official results of the state elections.

Anyone who is unsure before the election which party best represents their own interests can consult the Wahl-O-Mat.