Midterms: Ten races decide majority in US Senate
Created: 06/10/2022, 12:44 p.m
By: Johanna Soll
In the midterm election, ten races in particular matter when it comes to whether the Democrats or Republicans will control the Senate.
USA – The midterm elections on November 8 in the USA will decide, among other things, 35 seats in the US Senate.
The Democrats currently have a wafer-thin majority in the upper chamber of Congress: Both parties have 50 seats each and in the event of a stalemate, the vote of Vice President Kamala Harris, who is also the chair of the US Senate, decides.
According to Fivethirtyeight
, the forecasts for the Democrats to retain their majority are currently
better than for the Republicans to regain the Senate majority.
Of the Senate seats up for grabs, 21 are currently held by Republicans and 14 by Democrats.
The following 10 races are considered to be particularly decisive for the outcome of the election.
The rest can be expected to remain in Democratic or Republican hands.
US President Joe Biden at a campaign event on the Midterms: Can his Democrats maintain their majority in the Senate?
© Bonnie Cash/Imago
Progressive Democrats: John Fetterman and Mandela Barnes
In
Pennsylvania
, leftist Democrat and incumbent Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman is up against Republican Trump protégé Mehmet Oz.
The Senate seat becomes vacant because incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Toomey does not run for re-election.
Just before the Democratic primary in May, Fetterman suffered a stroke from which he is still recovering.
Nevertheless, in current polls he is ahead of Mehmet Oz – who repeatedly makes campaign mistakes that Fetterman exploits on social media.
Oz is endorsed by ex-President Donald Trump.
Incumbent
Wisconsin
Senator Ron Johnson is being challenged by progressive Democrat and incumbent Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes.
The race between Johnson and Barnes, supported by US leftists Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Elizabeth Warren, is said to be open.
Ron Johnson is a Trump Republican.
Two Democrat incumbents who have to tremble
Like US President Joe Biden, Raphael Warnock has been in office since early 2021.
The swing state
Georgia
senator is challenged by Trump proge Herschel Walker.
Walker is a former American football player and goes neck and neck with Warnock despite his history of scandals.
Most recently it came out that the declared anti-abortion opponent is said to have urged an ex-girlfriend to have an abortion and paid for it.
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In
Nevada
, the Senate seat of Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto is shaking.
Her challenger is Donald Trump-backed Republican Adam Laxalt, an election denier.
While Cortez Masto campaigns for abortion rights, Laxalt focuses on inflation and law and order.
Republicans have the advantage in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina
According to the polls, Democrat Tim Ryan is
roughly level with his Republican opponent JD Vance in
Ohio .
He is a venture capitalist and author of the autobiographical bestseller Hillbilly Elegy.
Incumbent Republican Sen. Rob Portman is not running for re-election.
Vance secured the Republican primary nomination through far-right positions and support from Donald Trump.
In
Florida
, incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio faces Democratic challenger Val Demings.
The former Orlando police chief has yet to overtake Rubio in polls, but she is just a few percentage points behind the former 2016 Republican presidential nominee.
In
North Carolina
, incumbent Senator Richard Burr is not running again, so there is no incumbent advantage in this race.
Nevertheless, experts assume that Republican candidate Ted Budd has an advantage over Democratic candidate Cheri Beasley.
Trump-backed Rep. Budd is an election denier and owner of a firearms store.
Beasley is a former Justice of the North Carolina State Supreme Court.
Democratic incumbents with good chances of winning
In
Arizona
, Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly has held his seat since a 2020 by-election.
The former astronaut is being challenged by Trump protégé and far-right Republican Blake Masters.
He not only spoke out against abortions, but also against contraception and is a supporter of the right-wing, racist conspiracy myth of the "Great Exchange", also known as "Umvolkung".
Polls have shown that Masters has trailed Kelly by several percentage points since the campaign began.
Republican Don Bolduc has also not been able to
catch up with Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan in the polls in
New Hampshire .
She is campaigning to focus on protecting abortion rights, while Bolduc praised the Supreme Court's highly controversial anti-abortion decision.
The retired brigadier general is a far-right candidate, but he has no support from Donald Trump.
He was still spreading the lie about the stolen election during the Republican primary campaign, but he has since changed his position and recognized Joe Biden as the legitimate president.
In
Colorado
, Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet is being challenged by Republican Joe O'Dea, who is comparatively moderate.
The developer is trying to appeal to swing voters by saying he opposes the Supreme Court decision upending the landmark US abortion law ruling, Roe v.
Wade, has been lifted.
However, he also says he voted for Donald Trump and supports his plan to build a wall on the border with Mexico.
On average, Bennet has been ahead of O'Dea by around ten percentage points since the campaign began.
(Johanna Soll)
