In order to win a few votes, Netanyahu may set the Middle East on fire

Netanyahu's promiscuous conduct regarding the negotiations between Israel and Lebanon breaks records. In his election speech that dealt with gas there was not even one word of truth. Lapid, for his part, will not conduct negotiations under threats.

For him, gas production will begin when the producing company is ready.

And the Likud's filth and lie factory is gearing up

Ben Caspit

07/10/2022

Friday, 07 October 2022, 01:14 Updated: 07:12

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The only one who would prefer action for his personal benefit over action for the benefit of the state.

Benjamin Netanyahu on the bus with the armored glass (photo: official website, no)

Binyamin Netanyahu's promiscuous behavior in regards to the negotiations on the economic waters between Israel and Lebanon is, alone, a justified reason not to vote for him in this election, and in all future elections. This is not an exaggeration. This is the truth.

For many years I have claimed that of all the prime ministers who were here, The only one who would prefer action for his personal benefit over action for the benefit of the country is Benjamin Netanyahu. The man proves this claim time and time again. He has already left the country without a budget, just to stab Benny Gantz, deceived his voters and agreed to "get under the stretcher" after Netanyahu pleaded with him and promised that "I will take my place in November without tricks and without tricks".

He has already posed for a smug selfie with the security guard from the embassy in Jordan, lost relations with King Abdullah and later the Zufar and Naharim enclaves, just to get a few more likes on the networks.

He has already released 1,100 terrorists, including 400 murderers, and signed a deal that the "leftist" Olmert refused to approve, only because he thought it was what would calm the summer protests, which threatened his rule.

This is a very partial list.

Lost relations with King Abdullah to get likes.

Netanyahu with the security guard who shot dead two Jordanians (Photo: Walla! NEWS system, Haim Tzach/L.A.M.)

This time, he broke all his previous records.

He could be the one who set the whole Middle East on fire, just to convince some who are undecided about religious Zionism to vote for him, or at least not to vote for Ayelet Shaked, so that the lady will calm down.

Before Kippur, Netanyahu spoke at an election conference in Rehovot.

A speech full of lies.

I couldn't get a word of truth out of him.

Here is the text, word for word:

"Nasrallah threatened Yair Lapid and told him to sign, or be kidnapped! Like this. So Yair Lapid shamefully surrendered. I refused to sign this surrender agreement and Yair Lapid within three months signed a surrender agreement in which he transfers sovereign territory of the State of Israel, your territory, into the hands of Hezbollah. In which he transfers a gas field, billions of dollars, into the hands of Hezbollah. This is your gas. This is your money. Yair Lapid opposed the removal of the gas twice, and now he is running to remove the gas from the water at the Lebanese border and hand it over to Nasrallah and Hezbollah. And what will Nasrallah do? With this money? Will he build neighborhoods? I haven't heard, will he build neighborhoods? Will he build community centers?

No!!!

He will buy missiles and arm himself with rockets.

You know where this is going.

on us

disgrace".

There is no vocabulary rich enough in Hebrew to express the magnitude of the disgrace of this shameful text.

Let's start with the basic lies: contrary to what Netanyahu said, Lapid did not sign any agreement with Lebanon ("Lapid signed a surrender agreement within three months"!).

There is no agreement.

What there is is an offer from the American mediator.

More in Walla!

Lapid at the cabinet meeting: the Biden administration is trying to pressure Lebanon to retract some of its comments

To the full article

He did not sign any agreement with Lebanon, contrary to what Netanyahu said.

Prime Minister Yair Lapid (Photo: Government Press Office, Amos Ben Gershom)

Israel, on the recommendation of all the security and political factors, tended to agree.

The Lebanese delivered a demand for repairs in the Mochas. Lapid refused to continue bargaining and blew up the negotiations.

That's the situation, as of now.

No, Mr. Netanyahu.

Lapid did not sign the agreement that you refused to sign.

And one more thing: you never refused to sign this agreement.

He didn't exist in your time.

The negotiations have not matured. Therefore you are lying. Once again. During your time we were about as far from an agreement as you are from the truth.

Further: Nasrallah did not threaten Lapid and did not tell him to "sign, or be kidnapped".

If Netanyahu had not regularly refused to report to Lapid for updates, as does every opposition leader to whom the country is important, he would have known the truth. Here is the truth: all the security officials are united in the opinion that the agreement, in its American outline, is good and essential for Israel. They are united in the opinion That the agreement will weaken Nasrallah and Iran and especially Lebanon's dependence on Iranian oil tankers that allow the residents of Beirut 3-4 hours of electricity a day. They are united in the assessment that the agreement will bring security and stability to the entire northern front.

The truth is that the two people who oppose the agreement on economic waters are Hassan Nasrallah and Benjamin Netanyahu. Not necessarily in that order. The reason: Because of this agreement, Nasrallah will lose a lot of points in the Lebanese public opinion, and his great economic leverage (Iranian aid). Netanyahu will lose a lot of points in the Israeli public opinion. And another election eve.

Further: Lapid does not transfer "sovereign territory of the State of Israel to Hezbollah".

This lie is transparent, gross, shocking and especially disgusting.

The economic waters are devoid of sovereignty.

It is not Israeli sovereign territory.

There is no sovereignty in economic waters.

There are only financial interests.

Netanyahu knows this very well.

It doesn't stop him from lying.

This does not prevent him from inciting in front of his supporters.

This does not prevent him from explaining that Lapid opposed the removal of Israeli gas from the water and now he is removing the Israeli gas from the water and transferring it to Nasrallah.

No, Lapid was not opposed to "taking the gas out of the water".

Lapid objected to the parts of the gas outline that, in his opinion, were too generous towards the tycoons and too stingy towards the citizens of Israel.

As I recall, Netanyahu promised us that the wealth fund would accumulate hundreds of billions.

Let's settle for tens of billions.

Currently, there are barely one billion there.

Netanyahu knows very well that there is no reasonable or sane prime minister who would "oppose taking the gas out of the water".

He knows, and continues to lie and incite.

Netanyahu's plagiarism and incitement speech ended with another lie: What will Nasrallah buy with the billions that Lapid will transfer to him?, he asked/incited his audience?

missiles and rockets.

And what is the truth?

The truth is that Netanyahu received Nasrallah from Olmert with something like 14 thousand rockets.

Netanyahu handed over Nasrallah to Bennett with something like 150 or even 200 thousand rockets.

Much more sophisticated and accurate than the ones he had in 2009.

Moreover: the billions that Lebanon will receive from the gas (if and when), will go to the Lebanese state treasury.

Nasrallah receives the rockets and missiles from Hezbollah's budget, which is mainly built on Iranian aid and drug smuggling.

Lapid does not transfer sovereign territory of Israel to Hezbollah.

Shark rig (photo: official website, Energian company)

A question of money

Let's summarize the economic gas and water issue from a macro perspective: there is no debate about sovereignty here.

There is no relinquishment of homeland here.

There is no evacuation of settlements or compromises on security issues.

There is an economic negotiation here. That's how it is in economic waters. In the end, it's about money. Israel did give up a certain amount of money. How much? Between a billion and 4 billion. The difference in gas royalties between Israel's demand and the American compromise plan is worth a billion or two But this money does not really exist

.

It is fictitious. Right now, it is written on the ice. The gas in the Kaana reservoir has not yet been found. What is currently available is an estimate of the gas potential. It is possible that when they start drilling, they will not find anything. It is possible that they will find less than planned. In any case, this is a small reservoir. Israel decided it was worth giving up some of the royalties, in exchange for the inputs it would earn on the other side.

What were we supposed to gain on the other side?

Security, stability, economy.

An agreement with Lebanon on the economic waters and a Lebanese drilling rig against the Israeli rigs are worth to Israel not billions, but hundreds of billions.

This is an agreement that stabilizes the entire northern front.

Lebanon and Nasrallah will suddenly have something to lose.

The entire Lebanese economy will sit on this reservoir.

In such a situation, according to the assessment of all Israeli security and intelligence officials, the need to invest inputs and energy in protecting the Israeli rigs will be reduced to a minimum.

It will be clear to everyone that whoever damages an Israeli rig, in the same action will wipe out the Lebanese rig.

Whoever tries to light an Israeli rig, will light the Lebanese rig with his own hands.

And we haven't talked about our ability to protect our rigs (no country has such an ability), compared to Lebanon's inability to protect its rig.

And what's more: according to (Israeli and Western) intelligence, Nasrallah has recently accelerated his arming and Iran is pushing him emergency deliveries in preparation for the possibility of an outbreak of war.

The security establishment sees the risk of war on the background of the negotiations as a high risk. It's not a game, it's not a joke. It's real. If Netanyahu bothered to come for security updates, he would know it. I suspect he knows it even without the updates. Know , and ignores. In the current situation, Lebanon has its back to the wall, Nasrallah has its back to the wall and faces the abyss. They have nothing to lose. Only we have something to lose.

has recently accelerated its armament.

Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah (photo: official website, Al Maner)

The Chief of Staff, the head of the Security Council, the head of the Mossad, the head of the National Security Council, the heads of the Foreign Ministry, are all united around the analysis you read here. It's not my analysis, it's their analysis. And the one who tweets about all this is Benjamin Netanyahu. It's not about my territory homeland (which he gave, as I remember, to Arafat) and not security (which he gave up in the Shalit deal and on other occasions). This is an economic negotiation with far-reaching security implications.

History will not forgive you for this either, Mr. Netanyahu.

And if, God forbid, the Great Northern War breaks out because of this nonsense of a few percent of the value of the "Kana" reservoir, even the lightest of your trumpets will not be able to erase this stigma from you.

It must be emphasized: Netanyahu ignores the warnings of all security levels in the State of Israel.

This reminds me of how he ignored, at the time, the warning of the research department at the AMN (by Brigadier General Dror Shalom), according to which the withdrawal of the US from the nuclear agreement could have the opposite effect.

He was then told, in real time, that this could be a fatal error.

What will happen if Trump is not elected for a second term?

What will happen if the Ayatollahs do not break from the "maximum pressure" policy?

What will happen if Trump does not attack Iran?

Netanyahu ignored.

The end is known.

All of Netanyahu's attribution scenarios did not come true.

The Ayatollahs were not broken, Trump was not elected, no one attacked Iran and the powers (Europe, China and Russia) left Trump and us alone.

This is how Netanyahu became the father of the Iranian bomb.

Today he again ignores similar warnings.

Today he may become the father of the Great Northern War.

Finally, a few more details: the term of Lebanese President Michel Aoun ends on October 31.

After her, no one will sign this agreement.

In the absence of an agreement, the risk of igniting the arena is high and increasing.

The Greek drilling company that drills the Shark reservoir (which remains fully in our hands) may file a multi-billion claim against the state.

It will be impossible to force the company's employees to extract gas from a shark under the threats of someone armed with hundreds of thousands of rockets.

The responsibility for this situation will be placed on the Israeli government.

President of Lebanon Michel Aon.

His term ends on October 31, after which no one has signed the agreement (Photo: Reuters)

Not with threats

Something about Naftali Bennett.

In recent days it has been announced that he opposes the emerging American plan.

It is strange.

In all the discussions held on this issue, over many months, it was Bennett who outlined the strategy according to which there is no dilemma in choosing between a few percent of a small gas reservoir (which has not yet been actually found) and a platform for long-term security stability on the northern front.

Did Bennett really change his mind?

Did he do it after he left office?

Right now, I don't know.

What will Yair Lapid do now?

One thing is known: Lapid hates threats.

It is impossible to negotiate with him under threats. It starts in the Foreign Ministry's workers' committee, continues with his closest friends (Afar Shelah, for example), and ends, despite millions of differences, in Nasrallah and Lebanon. In closed conversations yesterday, a resolute torch was heard: the Lebanese are bringing new goats into the room The negotiation in the 90th minute?

So "Pak It".

Do not need.

Aon's term will end, it will be impossible to sign, those who will pay the price will be the citizens of Lebanon.

As far as Lapid is concerned, everything is open.

Want to sign?

Signed.

Do not want?

Don't sign it.

Gas production from Shark, as far as it depends, will begin as soon as the producing company is ready.

Will Nasrallah start a war?

Then there will be war.

If the Lebanese in the 7th are willing, the agreement can be signed even after the elections. There is a situation that Lapid will prefer this option. If it happens after the elections, he will put the agreement on the Knesset table. Let the MKs decide.

That the blood, that is, this gas will be smeared by their hands.

Netanyahu's story does not surprise Lapid.

"If only he knew what was in the American proposal," he said yesterday to those who said, "he doesn't even bother to ask for an update. He runs to incite against the agreement and speak against the agreement and strengthen Nasrallah without knowing what is in it. Even the cabinet has not yet discussed it ".

"If at least he knew what was in the American proposal."

American mediator Amos Hochstein with Lebanese President Michel Aoun, September 9, 2022 (Photo: Reuters)

Operation Shaked

Michael Shemesh's publication in Kan 11 about the involvement of "Mrs." Netanyahu in the Likud campaign in general, and in the personal campaign on the head of Ayelet Shaked in particular, reminded me of a previous publication, by Raviv Drucker and mine, about a similar event in the 2008-2009 campaign.

It happened, it happened: they sat in the Likud election headquarters on a personal campaign against Tzipi Livni, head of Kadima.

The campaign included hundreds of huge posters all over the country featuring Livni's picture with a short inscription: "Livni, it's big on her."

At the night meeting, in which Netanyahu also participated, the campaign was approved.

But then one came downstairs, Nathan Eshel.

As far as is known, he came without a camera.

He looked at the campaign, looked at the posters and made a phone call.

"I'm calling the boss," he said to whoever said.

After hearing the words of "the boss", he sent down an order: the campaign is cancelled.

Why canceled?

What was said then, in the corridors of Likud headquarters, was that Livni's photos were too flattering.

Thus, in the wake of a phone call to the "boss" (who is not Benjamin Netanyahu), the campaign against Livni went down.

That's how it went then.

This is how it goes today, only much worse, because the lady was joined by a gentleman.

This time, too, it is not Benjamin Netanyahu.

Let's stay with Ayelet Shaked.

Walla published last week what Netanyahu says in closed conversations: "If Shaked passes, she will extort the prime ministership from me like Bennett."

On another occasion, Netanyahu said the following unbelievable thing: "Shaked did nothing at the Ministry of Justice."

Where to start?

He accuses Shaked of extorting the position of prime minister "like Bennett extorted from me."

Tell me, Mr. Netanyahu, are you sure that Bennett extorted this position from you?

Did you forget that you offered Gideon Sa'ar (6 mandates) the position of Prime Minister in an official letter?

Did you forget that you offered Benny Gantz (8 mandates) the position of prime minister even after the current government was formed?

Did you forget that you offered "first in rotation" to every leper and leper, with or without mandates?

What will happen to your memory?

Mila, the fact that you forgot that you had a hot affair with Mansor Abbas and used all your strength to try to "qualify" him in the eyes of Bezalel Smotrich.

Who did you not recruit for this task?

From Rabbi Kanievsky to Rabbi Tau, from Rabbi Druckman to Rabbi Ko.

Now you're accusing the US administration of working for a government "that leans on the Muslim Brotherhood"?

And regarding the Ministry of Justice: the one who did nothing in the Ministry of Justice is Netanyahu.

Not an almond.

He testifies to this in his voice.

Go to Google.

He torpedoed all reform initiatives.

He prevented any touching of the High Court. He bragged about it. He had 15 years, and he didn't lift a finger. Now he blames the one who did, for his own failures. The questions are asked, is there a bottom to this barrel of lies. Is there an upper limit to insolence. The answers: no and no.

"If Shaked passes, she will extort the prime ministership from me like Bennett."

Ayelet Shaked and Benjamin Netanyahu, February 10, 2016 (Photo: Flash 90, Yonatan Zindel)

Project Torch

What can we expect in the next campaign?

More, of the same.

The Likud is now investing a great deal of effort in obtaining materials for Lapid.

In almost every campaign from the last series, at the moment of truth, Netanyahu pulled out some dramatic slur on one of his opponents.

From that hacking into Gantz's cell phone through the "Red Hood" organized by his associates, including a lawyer and a "rabbi", to Gantz's adviser at the time, Israel Bacher.

So now they are investing all their energy in Lapid, in an effort to bring some substance on the eve of the elections.

Although he shows contempt and disdain for him, Netanyahu is afraid of Lapid.

He knows that the attacks from his bridle and his whistles against Lapid, fail to really hurt him.

Maybe even the other way around: Lapid started this campaign with 17 mandates and has since risen by almost 50%.

Netanyahu, on the other hand, started the campaign with 36 mandates and dropped to the dangerous environment of 30-31.

The same, although to a lesser extent, in the percentages of compatibility with the prime ministership.

Even in Filber's poll for Channel 14, the last respective results were a tie: Netanyahu received 50%, Lapid 37% and Gantz 13%.

If Gantz goes down, most of his supporters will, for sure, flock to Lapid.

Why did Gantz go down?

Gantz's option is alive and well.

If the defense minister manages to rise above 12-13 mandates, he is strong in the picture.

All this, provided that Netanyahu does not have 61 mandates.

In such a situation, it would be possible to try to establish a rotating government between Gantz and Lapid.

Gantz first, Lapid second.

The ultra-Orthodox will be invited in with the option to leave at the end of two years.

They will, they will stay.

They will not want, they will leave.

Two years is an eternity.

And despite all of the above, we must not forget: the possibility that Netanyahu will break through the 61 barrier is alive, present and kicking.

It depends on quite a few factors, but it is possible.

If this happens, Israel will not look like it did until today.

Netanyahu is trying to put the public to sleep, but if he forms a government with Ben-Gvir, Smotrich and the ultra-Orthodox, the public will wake up in November to a nightmare.

The assault on the gatekeepers, the judiciary and the remnants of statehood will be brutal.

Netanyahu no longer controls it.

It is bigger than him, it is stronger than him, it endangers us all.

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