The Corona autumn wave is here: This is how experts assess the pandemic situation

Created: 2022-10-07 06:58

By: Dominik Goettler

The Corona numbers in Bavaria are also increasing due to the Oktoberfest in Munich.

© Wolfgang Maria Weber / IMAGO

As in the last two years, the numbers go up in the cold months.

The occupancy in the clinics is increasing again – but significantly fewer people are seriously ill.

Munich – The 187th Oktoberfest has been history since Monday – but when you look at the number of infections in and around Munich, many suddenly feel the Oktoberfest blues.

The Corona autumn wave is rolling on with all its might.

But what does this mean for the clinics?

How dangerous is the current variant?

And is an end to the pandemic in sight?

An overview.

Corona autumn wave in Germany: what is the infection situation?

The autumn wave is rolling.

A look at the numbers shows this: For Germany, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) gave the 7-day incidence yesterday as 462 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants, twice as high as four weeks ago.

For comparison: The pandemic peak was in March of this year with an incidence of 1758. Bavaria is well above the national average.

The incidence here is 715. And the districts around Munich such as Fürstenfeldbruck, Ebersberg and Dachau are among the frontrunners nationwide with incidences of more than 1000.

In principle, the following still applies: the number of unreported cases is likely to be high.

Because only positive PCR tests are included in the statistics.

Corona in Germany: Which variant is currently dominating?

Not much has happened since the summer wave.

Since mid-June, the omicron subline BA.5 has almost completely supplanted other variants.

According to the RKI, their share was 96 percent.

The proportion of subline BA.2.75, which is suspected of bypassing immune protection better than other variants, is still less than one percent.

Are the clinics already feeling the corona autumn wave?

Yes, albeit a little differently than previous waves.

The occupancy numbers are rising again.

For example, around 200 Covid patients are currently being treated in the Munich clinic - and thus almost as many as at the previous high in the delta wave.

However, at that time the number of intensive care patients was three times as high as today.

According to the hospital company, there are currently 3,900 patients with corona in the clinics across Bavaria, 280 of them in intensive care.

The numbers have roughly doubled in the last two weeks.

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Christoph Spinner, Pandemic Officer at the University Hospital Rechts der Isar of the Technical University of Munich, says with a view to the increasing occupancy rates: “These are almost all patients who are in the clinic because of other diseases.” Nevertheless, the situation is stressful for the clinics, especially because of the high care costs for corona patients and the corona-related staff shortages.

How dangerous is Corona anyway?

For Christoph Spinner, Corona has lost its great terror for large parts of the population.

"At the beginning of the pandemic, the mortality rate in the general population was 4.5 percent," he says.

"In the meantime, as the national RKI data shows, mortality has fallen to well below 0.1 percent." Spinner reports on studies at the University Hospital Hamburg, where young, healthy people were also among the fatalities at the beginning of the pandemic.

Since Omicron, however, the investigation has not found any more deaths outside of the risk groups.

"That's because the immune competence in the general population has increased significantly as a result of vaccination and recovery." In the meantime, almost every German has probably had contact with the virus, whether intentionally or unintentionally.

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Clemens Wendtner, chief physician for infectiology at the Munich Clinic, is a little more reserved.

He warns: "In addition to the acute infection, the risk of post-Covid should not be downplayed." In addition to long-term lung problems, he also observes many cases of heart muscle inflammation, which can be "limiting to dangerous".

Corona autumn wave: for whom is the fourth vaccination important?

For all those who can still become seriously ill despite the weakened omicron variant.

Spinner says: "An Israeli study shows that the second booster reduces fatal cases by 70 percent in the first 30 days." That's why you have to concentrate now on targeting the campaign for the second booster vaccination to the over-60s and guide people with pre-existing conditions.

“For healthy younger people, the second booster is not absolutely necessary from a social perspective.

It still makes sense for healthcare workers, for example, because the probability of infection is also reduced," says Spinner.

His appeal: “Especially if you belong to a risk group, the second booster really makes a difference and even protects against death from Covid-19!

The big question: When will the pandemic be over?

Experts have been discussing this for months.

US President Joe Biden has already pushed ahead and declared the pandemic over – even if you still have a “problem” with Covid.

Formally, it is like this: The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the pandemic, it can also declare it over again.

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in mid-September that an end to the pandemic was in sight, but that the goal had not yet been reached.

Full vaccinations of the risk groups and regular testing are still important.

For Christoph Spinner, the transition to endemics, i.e. to regionally limited outbreaks of disease, has already begun.

In his view, the vaccinations and the high immune competence of the population allow the transition from Covid-19 to an endemic respiratory disease.

The incidence figures, he says, have lost their purpose for directly deriving public measures.

However, Clemens Wendtner fears that it will take at least next year, if not longer, for the infection process to "cool off".

"Like with the flu, you will have to get used to the booster vaccinations against Corona in the future." He hopes that in future an annual booster injection will be sufficient for special risk groups.

And what about the flu this winter?

Runny nose, sore throat and fever - many are currently complaining about this, even if the corona test remains negative.

This is because various other viruses are also currently circulating.

The RKI currently refers, for example, to rhinoviruses that trigger typical colds.

And the flu also seems to be here early this year, after hardly any flu waves could build up in the past few years due to the infection control measures.

"We are already seeing the first cases of influenza," says Christoph Spinner.

This is atypical, before the pandemic, the first cases in Bavaria usually only appeared in December and January.

The flu epidemic could be more severe than usual this year.

Here, too, Stiko recommends vaccination from the age of 60.

And Spinner points out: