Will Trump be the 'Messenger of Peace' in the Russia-Ukraine War?

On September 28, former US President Trump (Donald Trump, also translated as Trump) expressed his new views on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the social platform Truth Social.

It pointed out that the bombing of Nord Stream "could lead to a major escalation or war" and that the U.S. leadership should remain calm.

"Don't make things worse because of the pipeline explosion. Be strategic, be smart, you must make a deal now." Trump stressed, "Both sides need and want to make a deal, the whole world is at stake, here I come. Take the lead?" (Both sides need and want it. The entire World is at stake. I will head up group?).

And this is not the first time Trump has spoken out about the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Looking back, on February 21, when Vladimir Putin signed a decree recognizing the independence of the two "republics" of Ukrainian and Eastern Uruguay, Trump publicly expressed his appreciation, calling Putin's move "truly genius"; after the outbreak of the war on the 24th, In response to the overwhelming condemnation, Trump suddenly revised his wording, slamming Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a "massacre".

In March, Trump stepped up his condemnation, calling for the United States to threaten Russia with a "nuclear attack."

In addition, Trump is also whimsical, saying that the United States should hang the Chinese flag on the F-22 fighter jet, "blow up the Russian garbage", and then sit and watch the Sino-Russian fight.

In contrast, Trump is obviously not a pure "pacifist", and his views on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are constantly changing.

But looking at its intentions, the roles of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in its context seem contradictory, but in fact they are in the same line: highlighting themselves and belittling Joe Biden.

The picture shows former US President Trump attending a rally and speaking in Barre, Pennsylvania, on September 3, 2022.

(AP)

If Trump were President of the United States

Looking back, when Trump was president, he actually did not actively comment on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, nor did he think there was a strong need to "do justice" for Ukraine.

In September 2019, Trump shocked Ukraine when he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and suggested that the latter should "get together and solve the problem" with Putin.

However, two years after his resignation as president, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is rapidly intensifying, and the US is about to usher in the mid-term elections. Under the interaction of the two contexts, Trump seems to see a "strategic opportunity" in his political career, and he began a "strategic opportunity" for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. fancy expression".

In its context, the geopolitical upheaval of the post-impact Cold War order seems to be only a political stage to fulfill his personal aura, and there are only two roles on the stage, neither Putin nor Zelensky, but the body For the actor himself, and for Biden as a foil.

Taking Putin's recognition of the independence of Ukrainian and Eastern Ukraine as "truly genius" as an example, Trump also said in the same interview that Putin chose to "invade" Ukraine now, rather than during his presidency, because he and Putin The relationship is better than Biden's. "I know Putin very well. I get along with him very well. He likes me, I like him." But the conversation turned, and Trump criticized Biden's response to Putin's actions was not strong enough , adding that during the Biden presidency, "the price of crude oil has soared, and Russia is getting rich because of it."

On September 30, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a speech at the Kremlin, announcing Russia's "inclusion" of four regions of Ukraine.

(AP)

It can be seen from the above talk that under the theme of sniping at Biden, Trump is not shy about contaminating the taboo color of "pro-Russian", let alone revealing inconsistencies in his position in the same interview. He can not only praise Putin, but also instantly Criticizing Biden for "letting Russia sit on top" seems like Putin has nothing to do with Russia, just a misplaced country and president who happens to be in the same conversation.

After the war broke out, Trump even sharpened his sword and attacked everywhere. Although he no longer praised Putin positively, he continued to use the Russia-Ukraine war to promote himself and ridicule Biden.

For example, after slamming Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a "massacre", Trump emphasized that "if I continue to serve, Russia will not dare to annex any inch of land, let alone launch an invasion," apparently intending to contrast Biden's "lack of prestige" "; After proposing the shocking whims of threatening Russia with a "nuclear attack", Trump said that if he were the president of the United States, he would send a nuclear submarine "to sail back and forth" off the coast of Russia to put pressure on Putin. This narrative is also obvious. It is a mockery of Biden's "timidity".

As for the recent proposal of "I will lead the mediation", Trump also has his own political calculations.

Although he said in a high-profile manner that "I will take the lead", he did not mention a word about the ideal "agreement", and he was scrupulous about the relevant planning of how to mediate. Provide a solution, the Ukrainian war will never happen", apparently deliberately forming a "black and white" contrast between himself and Biden: Biden is belligerent and aggressive, regardless of the risk of destruction, and insists on burning with Russia; Trump On the other hand, he is calm, focused on the overall situation, and cares about world peace. It seems that a few months ago, it was a stranger who happened to be named Trump who was chanting to threaten Russia with a "nuclear attack" and to send a nuclear submarine to the coast of Russia.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump attends a conservative political action conference in Texas on August 6, 2022.

(Getty)

Polarized politics is the key

In all fairness, Trump’s remarks are not completely unreasonable. The situation in Russia and Ukraine has indeed been controlled during his tenure. It is true that US-Russian relations have continued to decline after Biden took office. The Russian-Ukrainian war will also break out in 2022. Not from 2016 to 2020.

In the final analysis, Biden is indeed responsible for the deterioration of the situation.

But Trump's various statements are also unhelpful to solve the current war situation, because whether it is praising Putin's genius, calling on the United States to dispatch nuclear submarines, or proposing "I will lead the mediation" of unclear meaning, Trump's purpose is not to bring about the end of the war. Instead, it aimed at the increasingly serious populist and polarized politics in the United States, hoping to create a patriotic image of itself as fierce, wise, and genius through various political performances surrounding the Russian-Ukrainian war, so as to satisfy the imagination and worship of different supporters. Next time "Lei Yue Long Men" will accumulate political capital.

Looking back on the American political ecology in the past 20 years, Trump's actions reflect the changes of the times.

After the 2008 financial crisis, populism rose sharply, and the "Tea Party" movement and the "Occupy Wall Street" movement broke out in the United States.

On August 5, 2022, former US President Trump attended a rally in Wisconsin.

(AP)

From the perspective of the original political and economic structure, American politics since the end of the Cold War can be divided into two major areas, namely the Northeast-Pacific Coast represented by the Democratic Party, and the South-Midwest region represented by the Republican Party.

However, in the past 20 years, the American manufacturing industry has experienced a serious outflow, and the livelihood of the blue-collar class has been greatly affected. This has led to the "rust belt" that originally belonged to the Democratic Party's traditional vote base, with white and blue-collar workers as the main body and traditional manufacturing as the leading industry. , turned to the Republican Party in 2016, and contributed to Trump's successful ascent to the presidency.

Then, although the Democratic Party regained the "rust belts" of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in 2020, it does not mean that the attractiveness of the Democratic Party to the white and blue-collar workers has successfully overwhelmed the Republican Party, but to a certain extent. caused.

In other words, a new round of restructuring of the US political landscape is still in progress and far from over.

In the process, the split between left and right populism gradually infiltrated the bipartisan struggle in the United States, leading to a rapid polarization of political culture and policies.

In terms of political culture, in order to seek exposure and populist support, the elites of the two parties in the United States are increasingly disregarding basic political and social norms, preferring to make exaggerated and sensational remarks; in terms of foreign policy, the US diplomatic language and actions are becoming more and more exaggerated and acrimonious. It seems that after excluding provocative and confrontational words, they do not know how to express themselves. As early as before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the US attitude towards China was a typical case, and its China policy was gradually dominated by the trend of confrontation and risk-taking. The risk management and control mechanism has become increasingly ineffective.

From this context, Trump's various statements on the Russia-Ukraine war seem contradictory and helpless, but in fact they play an important role in the field of polarization and populist politics, and have a certain degree of "era" significance".

In the end, Trump cannot and has no intention of becoming a "messenger of peace" in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Instead, he may become a "new Washington" in the eyes of supporters and write a footnote to the "rebuilding" of the United States.

[Trump and the Russian-Ukrainian War Q&A]

Why does Trump repeatedly comment on the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

Self-promotion while belittling Biden.

What is the significance of Trump's Russia-Ukraine narrative?

Increasingly polarized and populized American politics.

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