Biden Warns of 'Armageddon': How Would US Response to Nuclear Strike Look?

Three scenarios

Created: 2022-10-09 04:52

By: Patrick Mayer

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his "bloodhound" Ramzan Kadyrov are threatening to use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war.

The US is ready to respond - in three possible steps.

Munich/Moscow/Washington - Things are not going well for Vladimir Putin, in Russia there is resistance.

Because: Moscow's invasion troops are not making nearly as much progress in the Ukraine war as the Kremlin boss had imagined at the beginning of the year.

On the contrary, the Ukrainian defenders are conducting a successful counteroffensive across a wide front between the city of Kharkiv (population around 1.4 million), the Donbass in the extreme east and the Cherson region in the south at the entrance to the Black Sea.

In a published speech on the partial mobilization of Russian army reservists at the end of September, Putin threatened nuclear weapons.

"When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, to protect Russia and our people, we absolutely use all means at our disposal," said the 70-year-old.

"It's not a bluff," he affirmed.

Last meeting for the time being: Russian ruler Vladimir Putin (left) and US President Joe Biden on June 16, 2021 at a bilateral summit in Geneva, Switzerland.

© IMAGO / ITAR-TASS

The US response was not long in coming.

Foreign Minister Antony Blinken asked that every member of the UN Security Council send a clear message to Vladimir Putin that "these irresponsible nuclear threats must stop immediately".

Vladimir Putin threatens with nuclear weapons: Joe Biden and USA answer decisively

I don't think it's possible to use tactical nuclear weapons without ending in Armageddon, a catastrophe.

US President Joe Biden

But they didn't.

Instead, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov - also known as Putin's "bloodhound" - called on the Russian army to use "low-yield nuclear weapons" in Ukraine.

Washington does not want to let this sit uncommented.

On Friday night (October 7th), US President Joe Biden compared the situation with the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 and spoke of an imminent “Armaggedon”.

His message to Moscow: "I don't think it's possible to use tactical nuclear weapons without ending up with Armageddon, catastrophe," Biden said in a speech to donors.

But what would the US do if Putin let a "smaller" nuclear bomb attack a remote area or a city in Ukraine, or detonate one over the Black Sea, for example?

According to expert estimates, there would be escalation levels in three steps.

Accordingly, Washington does not envisage a nuclear counter-attack.

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Nuclear Strike Scenarios: Possible Step 1 - Isolation of Russia, also by China and India

First of all, a tactical nuclear strike could be “followed by a total gas and oil embargo,” the

quoted an unnamed high-ranking diplomat from a NATO country as saying.

In addition, Anton Gerashchenko, advisor to the Ukrainian interior minister, demanded: "If Putin uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine, the entire civilized world must stop all trade with Russia and also force China and India to impose and support a trade embargo against Russia."

Former CIA officer Matthew Kroenig does not believe that a military or even nuclear retaliation will follow immediately.

In the scenario described, he said in an interview with

magazine , "Biden avoids a war with Russia".

Even if there were voices around him calling for a tougher answer.

"I think some in government would say, 'Well, let's just do a tougher version of what we're already doing.

More sanctions.

More guns for Ukraine'.” The putative argument, according to Kroenig, would be “a tougher answer than what we're doing now.”

October 25, 1962, UN Security Council in New York: The US Ambassador to the UN, Adlai Stevenson, uses aerial photos to explain Soviet missile positions in Cuba to the assembly.

© IMAGO / Everett Collection

1962 Cuban Missile Crisis

During the so-called Cuban Missile Crisis from October 14th to 28th, 1962, the two superpowers USA and Soviet Union came closest to a direct military confrontation and a possible nuclear war.

At the time, Moscow had Soviet medium-range missiles stationed in Cuba, not far from the south-east coast of the United States.

For their part, the Americans had previously set up missile bases west and south of the USSR.

It was only on October 22 that then US President John F. Kennedy informed the public about the threat.

In the meantime, the United States had gathered around 200 warships around Cuba and transferred soldiers to Florida for a possible invasion.

On October 24, the Americans began a naval blockade of Cuba for Soviet ships, on October 28 the First Secretary of the CPSU, Nikita Khrushchev, gave in and had the missiles removed from Cuba.

The United States, for its part, dismantled medium-range missiles in Turkey.

Step 2: US cyber attacks on Russia

According to the

, there were indications from the Pentagon that Washington could react with a cyber attack on Russian facilities.

The US government has already let the Kremlin know about this via channels to Moscow that are still open.

"The United States could also respond with massive cyber attacks that would have devastating consequences for Putin and Russia," said former chief of staff at the German Defense Ministry, Nico

.

Cyber ​​attacks could therefore affect the Internet and/or the power grid in Russia.

In the video: Compact - The most important news about the Russia-Ukraine war

Step 3: Conventional military strikes against Russian troops in Ukraine and the Black Sea

According to the

, in the most drastic scenario, a conventional military attack on Russian positions in Ukraine, in Crimea and on the Black Sea Fleet could follow.

This is what Majid Sattar, political correspondent for North America based in Washington, and Friedrich Schmidt, correspondent for Russia based in Moscow, write in a joint analysis.

A conventional military strike would mean that the Russian invading army in Ukraine would be attacked with fighter jets and, if necessary, by ground troops - but without the use of nuclear munitions.

Former CIA director and retired four-star general David Petraeus also believes in these final military consequences of a Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine.

We would eliminate every Russian conventional force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea.

David Petraeus, former CIA director at ABC TV

The 69-year-old told US television network ABC that the US could “lead a NATO – a collective – effort that would eliminate every Russian conventional armed force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea , as well as every ship in the Black Sea".

Petraeus speaks of the "USA and their allies".

Because: In his opinion, uncontrollable nuclear radiation could trigger Article 5 and thus the event of the transatlantic defense alliance NATO.