Russia-Ukraine war

The attack in Kiev was just the beginning: as Putin prepared for the arrival of "General Winter"

The bombing in the capital of Ukraine and other cities was a form of revenge for the bombing of the Crimean bridge, but it heralds a change in trend.

Moscow is expected to continue attacking civilian infrastructure that supplies electricity and energy to civilians to avoid further fighting on the snowy front.

"The goal - to bring suffering to the citizens"

Tali Goldstein

10/10/2022

Monday, October 10, 2022, 9:30 p.m. Updated: 9:33 p.m.

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An explosion at the Crimea bridge in Russia as a result of a fuel tank fire.

October 8, 2022 (Reuters)

Russian President Vladimir Putin said today (Monday) that the widespread missile attack on cities in Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv, was a response to what he described as a "terrorist act" by the Ukrainian government, referring to the explosion of the Crimean bridge that connects Russia and the Crimean Peninsula, on Saturday.

However, the Ukrainian intelligence agency claimed in a statement that Moscow had been planning a "massive" missile attack on Ukraine for at least a week.

According to the agency, units in the Russian army "received instructions from the Kremlin in early October to prepare massive missile attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. Critical infrastructure facilities and densely populated city centers were the targets."

Many Ukrainians believe that from now on Russia will continue to attack civil infrastructures that provide heat and electricity to the country's major cities ahead of the coming of the brutal and notorious winter in the region - an enemy that even Putin does not want to fight.

The rain has already arrived in the region, and in a few weeks, the temperatures will drop drastically, and the lives of everyone involved in the conflict will become much more complicated.

At this stage, in light of the snow and the intense cold, the war will become, according to experts, a battle of psychological attrition mainly in which missiles and other aerial tools will become the main weapon directed against civilians.

"The Russian strategy in the region is not focused on the front, but on inflicting unbearable pain on civilians who are far from the front," said Sam Charap, an expert on Russia at the Rand Institute.

The missile factory in Kiev (Photo: Reuters)

The missile attack therefore did not surprise the experts.

A leader with a vision and historical knowledge like Putin chose to start the foot invasion of Ukraine only at the end of last February, when winter was about to give way to spring.

There is no doubt that he is aware of the fact that, probably already next month, the fighting in the field will already stop.

The main question now is how many more achievements the Ukrainian forces can claim before winter, when they will have to wait a few months again.

Indeed, the Ukrainian forces have recently been in a hurry to record as many achievements as possible in the field, because the arrival of winter, which threatens to disable the fighting for several months, will simultaneously provide the Russian commanders with an opportunity to reorganize and re-equip.

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To the full article

A central bridge in Kiev was bombed (Photo: GettyImages)

According to commentators, the expected cold will be a strategic problem for both sides.

The soldiers can share resources and reduce the demand on the supply lines, but such conduct also weakens them.

According to senior American officials, Russia's supply lines are now weak and even the addition of 300,000 reservists will not be enough to strengthen the Russian army before winter.

"Fighting in the middle of winter will be a terrible experience for these soldiers, on both sides, but Ukraine has one advantage: local support," Colonel Dave Butler, a spokesman for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told The Washington Post.

The help of the local citizens has so far been welcomed by the Ukrainian soldiers, who have received food and fuel, sometimes shelter or vehicles.

The problem will worsen if Putin succeeds in damaging the energy infrastructure of Ukraine in such a way that it will significantly worsen the situation of the citizens, so that they will not be able to help even their own army.

"People are at risk of not having a winter without heating, electricity or water," said Daria Zubenko, a platoon commander in the Ukrainian army, in a recent interview.

"Our progress before it gets too cold will determine how many lives we can save," she added.

Missiles on the capital of Ukraine (Photo: Reuters)

Moreover, the Russian military has a huge stockpile of missiles, cruise missiles and older missiles.

These missiles are relatively easy to launch but difficult to intercept, said Steve Rosenberg, the BBC's Russia editor.

According to him, Putin chose the easiest option this morning - and the most visually impressive - to prove that Russia is still in control, despite the losses in the last month on the ground.

And if this is the attitude of the Kremlin, then it may continue to bomb Ukraine from the air in the coming months as well.

These airstrikes also help Putin deal with domestic criticism of the military's poor performance.

In this way, the isolated president, who suddenly encountered dissatisfaction on the part of members of parliament, ministers, members of the media who used to be his followers and most importantly, on the part of the Russian people, is trying to make it clear to his supporters and opponents that Russia still intends to win the war and there is no reason to fear.

Iranian UAV used by Russia (Photo: Reuters)

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev wrote today on the Telegram network that "there will be more attacks similar to today's missile attack".

He added that the escalation today is only the beginning of another escalation in the war on the part of Russia.

Putin said that if Ukraine carries out "further terrorist attacks on the territory of Russia", referring to the explosion of the Crimean bridge, there will be a very harsh reaction from the Kremlin.

French President Emmanuel Macron condemned the missile attack "directed by Moscow against civilians" and told reporters at the Elysee Palace that "this is a significant change in the nature of this war."

Whether it is a significant escalation that will drastically change the balance of power or whether it is a mainly strategic and psychological step, for now Russia can still cause a lot of damage to the civilian population in Ukraine, damage homes, destroy infrastructure and disrupt energy, water and electricity supplies just before "General Winter" rises to the stage and will take command.

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