Why even losing Bolsonaro has already been able to win

Brazil is experiencing a dangerous paradox that the most serious political commentators are beginning to underline: a few weeks before the presidential elections, which will be held between Bolsonaro and Lula, in some way the extreme right, and especially the most aggressive and fascist, has already won , which would make it seriously difficult to govern Lula even if he wins the presidency.

Bolsonaro did not win in the first round, but perhaps he conquered something as important or more important: the Congress and the Senate in which they have entered with an absolute majority, electing the toughest and most radical of the extreme right.

Hence, if Lula were to win the elections, she would have a serious difficulty governing.

This has come to this, according to the political columnist for the newspaper

, Pedro Doria, because the extreme right-wing Bolsonaro conquered power thanks to a surprising dominance of social networks that annulled the big media.

It was those networks catapulted by robots with millions of

who in 2018 gave Bolsonaro the victory and have already allowed him to conquer both the Congress of Deputies and the Senate, two institutions without which it is impossible for any president to govern. unless he manages to buy it with the instruments of corruption.

That Bolsonarism is here to stay and perhaps to influence a good part of the rest of the continent, even losing the head of state, is symbolically revealed by two concrete facts of these elections.

In the Senate they have conquered the majority of Bolsonaro's hosts, including his vice president, General Hamilton Mourao, who has maintained an ambiguous attitude in these four years of government between his fidelity to the President and a latent opposition to distinguish himself as more moderate and already thinking about his final entry into politics.

And so it has been.

He is already in the Senate of the Republic and has wasted no time in presenting a revolutionary plan to deliver the Supreme Court in the hands of the extreme right, which was Bolsonaro's dream.

The general and now senator, Mourao is not an ordinary military man.

He has distinguished himself by his missions outside the country, including in Venezuela.

He is a military man who, unlike Bolsonaro, is culturally prepared, he is not crude like him, he has a sense of humor, he is a reader, a great athlete, and he knows how to maintain a balance within the extreme right with which he knows how to cover up his dictatorial nature. .

He is a defender of the military dictatorship and torture and at the same time knows how to dialogue with all the democratic forces.

Already a senator and even before taking office, the former vice president of the republic has presented a plan to disrupt the power of the Supreme Court, which is the black beast of Bolsonarism with whom he has openly entered into war and even threatened to invade it by force.

Mourao's project is more subtle.

Today, said Supreme Court is made up of 11 members, of which two are chosen by Bolsonaro and who are totally loyal to him.

The project of the new Bolsonarista senator would be to increase its members to 14 and present an impeachment of two or three of the current ones.

And since two of the magistrates must retire this year for reasons of age, Bolsonarism would have an absolute majority in the High Court.

From there to attempting a project for a new Constitution, another of the dreams of Bolsonarism and the powerful evangelical churches that do not support the fact that the State is secular, there would be a step.

Someone might object that the first time Lula ran for president he was in a similar situation in the sense that the vast majority of Congress was conservative and yet he still managed to govern.

It is true, but he paid a very high price, since he was forced to buy Congress for it.

This is how the two great corruption scandals arose, first the mensalao and later the petralao, the latter paid with the price of 20 months in jail for Lula, which ended up seriously weakening the left.

This time, if Lula returns to power, he will encounter even greater difficulties than in his past governments, because not only will the majority of Congress and the Senate be against him, but also the harshest Bolsonarism, the root one, has reinforced to the extreme fascist right that seems to have woken up to stay, supported by the conservative and authoritarian world movement that is beginning to dominate the world.

The fact that this time more than ever, young people, even those who have no obligation, have gone to vote and that the majority have voted for Lula has been presented as hope in Brazil.

And yet, there has been an event in the recent elections that is being studied as emblematic and of concern by the left.

It is about the election as federal deputy, of the 26-year-old, with university studies, Nicolás Ferreira, from Minas Gerais, who has presented himself as a "Bolsonaro soldier" and who has obtained a million and a half votes, becoming the most voted deputy in all, called to be an idol of the youth world.

The young Ferreira, always smiling, presented himself with great candor in the social networks that he dominates like few others and in which he reaches four million followers, as an inveterate conservative who defends all the most reactionary creeds of the harshest Bolsonarism, such as the passion for weapons, the defense of the traditional family, his aversion to all movements in favor of the fight for the defense of gender equality and against abortion.

He is in favor of reading the Bible, which according to him “is the light that is revealed in the darkness”, and he confessed: “I want to be light and break the paradigm that Christians cannot get involved in politics”.

More Bolsonaro impossible.

And he is 26 years old and with dreams of continuing to climb the political ladder.

All of this places Lula, if he wins the elections, in a delicate and dangerous situation, since it is the consensus that Bolsonarism wins or loses the elections, it is here to stay and to influence the future of politics with ramifications outside the country.

One of Bolsonaro's sons, deputy Eduardo, the most extremist, the one who before his father won the elections in 2018 had already indicated that to end the Supreme Court "a couple of soldiers and a van would be enough", he is already organizing a Latin American movement of the extreme right that would have Brazil as its center, at the same time that it has already had meetings abroad with the new leaders of the new extreme right.

Hence, at the very least, if Lula were to win the elections, he should win them by a wide margin that allows him to govern with some strength and confront an increasingly strong and popular Bolsonarismo, since it has been embraced by the army of the powerful and conservative evangelical churches.

Lula, if he wins, should be able to govern this time without being forced to buy a Congress as in the past, in order to carry out the reforms that were left in the pipeline, from the State to politics, to put an end to the whopping of 32 parties in Congress, something, I think, unique in the world and that prevents the best of presidents from governing, who ends up being their hostage, unable to carry out his own policy.

To this we must add that the ultra-conservative forces in Brazil have taken over the new technologies of social networks and as

has written, in this field, "the worst of politics is the most competent", at the same time that the left, for now, has missed that train that will not be easy to catch up.

Hence, the upcoming elections are seen as definitive in the fight to defend the country from the increasingly strong new right-wing and authoritarian wave, difficult to guess how far it can lead this key country in the ultra-conservative involution. who lives our world.

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