Russian political scientist: "Putin makes Russia a third world country"

Created: 10/13/2022, 8:20 am

By: Bettina Menzel

The sanctions against Russia are apparently not having quite the effect that the West had hoped for.

The political scientist Abbas Galliamov accuses Putin of turning Russia into a "Third World country".

Moscow - Only recently the research network OCCRP uncovered the secret assets of the Russian President.

Vladimir Putin is considered one of the richest people in the world.

But things are not going as well for his country as for the Kremlin chief himself. A Russian political scientist has now accused Putin of turning Russia into a "Third World country".

Political scientist believes Putin is making Russia a 'Third World Country'

The Russian political scientist Abbas Galliamov was once active in the Kremlin, including as a speechwriter for Vladimir Putin.

He does not want to describe his former boss as "insane", but attests him a "loss of control", as the German Press Agency (dpa) reported.

The ex-spy chief is no longer in control of the situation - as he has been for a long time in his political life.

Putin is driven by the situation in Ukraine.

He has lost his status as a "holy figure" as a guarantor of stability.

Visitors stroll in Red Square at the blue hour.

St. Basil's Cathedral is on the left and Lenin's Mausoleum and the Moscow Kremlin on the right.

© picture alliance / Christophe Gateau/dpa |

Christophe Gateau

The proud resource power Russia is stuck in a massive recession due to the pressure of the sanctions.

Thousands of companies have left the country, tens of thousands are out of work.

There is an unprecedented "de-industrialization," Gallyamov said.

"He turns Russia into a third world country," said the Russian political scientist about Putin.

What is meant by "Third World Country".

With the term "Third World Country" the political scientist Galliamov is apparently alluding to the now outdated division of the world into First, Second and Third World.

During the Cold War, non-aligned states that belonged to neither the First World (Western powers) nor the Second World (Eastern bloc) were considered Third World.

The term is outdated because the Eastern bloc has long since collapsed.

Today we often divide the world into developed countries and developing countries.

The scientist Hans Rosling recommends to stop dividing the countries of the world into these two groups.

"It doesn't help us to understand the world in a practical way." Instead, Rosling recommends four income levels: level 1 corresponds to a per capita income of less than $2 per day, level 2 corresponds to less than $8 per day, level three below $32 a day and level four are societies where people live above $32 a day.

Basically, the Russian political scientist Galliamov uses the term Third World country to refer to a low-income country.

This is how the sanctions against Russia work

According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Russia's economy shrank by 5.5 percent this year.

In the coming year, the decline in economic power is expected to be around 4.5 percent, according to the OECD forecast.

"Russia is experiencing the deepest recession we have seen in a G20 country in the past three to four decades," said OECD chief economist Álvaro Santos Pereira in Paris in early October.

The OECD experts see the sanctions imposed by the West as one reason for this.

However, the measures are not as effective as was predicted in the summer.

Because Russia continues to export a lot of energy.

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The power struggle is said to have been raging in the Kremlin for a long time - four heads in the center

, oil and gas account for 

 around 40 percent of Russian government revenues.

In July, nuclear energy and natural gas were classified as green by the European Parliament, which is why more investments in nuclear power and gas could flow - that would also play into Russia's hands and could also have a concrete impact on the Ukraine war: An analysis by the 

portal  sees one Correlation between Russian oil and gas exports and Russia's military spending.

The latest forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday (October 11) also shows that the sanctions will hit Russia, but not as hard as assumed.

The IMF again raised its forecast for the Russian economy in 2022 and now expects a contraction of 3.4 percent instead of the 6 percent predicted in July, Russian news agency Interfax reported on Tuesday.

Ex-President Medvedev cites falling inflation as evidence of "sanctions immunity".

However, the unemployment rate in Russia is relatively low.

In June it was 3.9 percent, in August it was only 3.8 percent.

However, many Russians don't file for unemployment due to the lack of unemployment benefits and little state support - so the official numbers may be lower than the real situation.

Researchers at Yale University have already pointed out in a study that "the Kremlin's economic data are increasingly being published selectively".

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, numerous Western companies ceased operations in Russia, including big names such as McDonald's, Starbucks and Coca-Cola.

The fast-food giant McDonald's alone had 62,000 employees in the Russian Federation, but the fast-food restaurant sold its entire Russian business to Alexander Gowor, who continues to operate the approximately 850 branches.

So far, the Russian economy has gotten off relatively lightly, say the Russian media.

The Yale researchers speak of a "paralysis of the Russian economy" due to the withdrawal of Western companies.

At the beginning of October, Russia's ex-president Dmitry Medvedev described the new EU sanctions against his country as a pointless and expensive undertaking: "Our stupid opponents cannot understand one simple thing: Russia has been living under the restrictions for a long time and has learned well to adapt to the quickly adapt to changing circumstances,” Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel.

He cited official inflation falling from 17.8 to 13.7 percent as "proof" of Russia's resilience to sanctions.

According to Medvedev, the gross domestic product will also fall less sharply at the end of the year than initially feared.

The IMF forecast on Tuesday actually confirmed this.

However, most economic experts predict a long-lasting recession in Russia.

Political scientists continue to see support for Putin, but the Kremlin chief's time could soon be up

Political scientist Abbas Galljamov doesn't see a rapid rethinking within the country.

There are still too many people behind Putin for that.

The country's leadership, however, is apparently disillusioned.

The elite is in a "depression" because of the lack of a quick victory in Ukraine.

In addition to the army's defeats, there was chaos during partial mobilization.

"Today, Putin is the biggest destabilizing factor, a destabilizer," says Gallyamov.

Russia's elite is now losing its footing because it has leaned on Putin for 22 years.

But Galliamov also says that Putin's resources are still enormous - also because of the devotion of the security apparatus.

In addition, many Russians - especially those over 60 - continue to trust him because they see no other strong leader.

With a mixture of harshness towards the West and time and again demonstratively humane moments, Putin has always known how to win people over.

The political scientist Galliamov believes that in his war Putin is now primarily banking on the energy crisis in Europe escalating further, thereby breaking solidarity with Ukraine in the West.

If Europe isn't "frozen" by March, things will look bad for the Kremlin boss - a year before the presidential election, which is due in 2024, says the political scientist.

In view of the falling approval ratings, Galljamov currently does not see

that Putin can secure another victory for himself without cheating.

But manipulation can lead to a revolution, he emphasizes.

Galliamov sees only one peaceful way out: Putin himself could name a successor whom he trusts.

He sees Sergei Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow, as a possible candidate.

More and more people understand that Putin's time is up and that he is clearly responsible for the army's defeats.

"If he hadn't invaded Ukraine, nobody would have realized that the Russian army is just a paper tiger."

After the explosion on an important Crimean bridge, Russia has meanwhile responded with massive rocket attacks on Ukraine: Is this the result of a new strategy under Vladimir Putin?

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