Far from the American mediation efforts in the maritime border issue between Israel and Lebanon, a dramatic turn in the Middle East took place last week. After a year of political stagnation, the Iraqi parliament elected a new president - Abdel-Latif Rashid, who in turn appointed the representative of the pro-Iranian bloc in the parliament as prime minister-designate: Muhammad Shia al-Sudani.
In the 2021 elections, parties in the pro-Iranian bloc suffered a humiliating defeat.
Two of them - the party of Shia militiaman Hadi al-Amri and the party of former prime minister Haider al-Abadi - lost dozens of seats.
The winner of the elections was the movement of the Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, which became the largest in the parliament.
A-Sudanese.
Created dependence on pro-Iranians, photo: AP
But the cleric failed in his attempts to establish an independent coalition from Iranian influence.
Following this, he decided to take an unprecedented step and order his 73 representatives in the parliament to resign.
This act tipped the balance of power in the House of Representatives in favor of the pro-Iranian bloc.
Later, al-Sadr's supporters erupted in protest, took over the parliament and clashed with the security forces and the pro-Iranian camp.
Finally, al-Sadr declared that he was retiring from political life and called on his supporters to stop demonstrating.
dependent on the pro-Iranian bloc
Iraqi commentators describe the appointment of al-Sudani as "a victory for Iran and damage to American interests in the region."
According to them, "the coordination framework supported by Iran will do everything in its power to erase any US presence in the country and place obstacles in front of any economic cooperation with it.
Everything is in favor of Iran."
Other officials in the country are also discouraged by the situation: "There is no hope of changing the reality. The Iraqi people have expressed their anger and rejection, but the politicians are not aware of the people's suffering. There is a gap, they live in an isolated world."
These words refer to the protestors' opposition to the candidacy of al-Sudani, who nevertheless became the designated prime minister.
Rashid
The new president, photo: Reuters
"After the last elections, there was an attempt to form a political majority that was not successful, because the political forces stick to the sectarian job allocations," explained the sources.
"(For this reason) the coordination framework wants to share the flow of al-Sadr in the next government, in order to restore the sectarian allocations and the principle of dividing the cake."
In other words, the direction is another sectarian government that will share the country's wealth.
A-Sudani was a member of the party of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Malki, who currently functions as one of the leaders of the pro-Iranian bloc in the parliament.
In recent years, he withdrew from the party, established an independent political framework and today holds three seats in parliament, including his own seat.
This means that Sudan depends on the "coordination framework", the bloc of pro-Iranian Shiite parties.
This fact is important, because Iraq obtained huge profits from oil exports.
The central bank has a capital of 87 billion dollars.
Until now, the political deadlock makes it impossible to use these funds because it is necessary to form a government that will submit a budget that will be approved by the parliament.
It is estimated that Sudani will succeed in forming a government within 30 days.
Then, the budget celebration will begin.
A disturbing message for Lebanon
The neglected infrastructure in Iraq needs money like air to breathe.
The prime minister-designate stated that he intends to carry out economic reforms and fight corruption, but it is more likely that he will address Iraq's accumulated debt to Iran for gas exports (about 1.5 billion dollars).
Just profiting, President Iran Raisi, photo: Reuters
At the same time, al-Sudani declared his intention to hold new elections within a year and a half.
If the movement of the Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr continues to boycott the political system - this means that the pro-Iranian bloc in the parliament will strengthen, and the Iranian grip on the country will strengthen.
In the event that a majority is still not achieved for the camp, the very fact that no opposing coalition will be formed will allow the coordination framework to continue managing the affairs of the state.
The political turn led to speculations about al-Sadr's moves.
Some commentators estimated that he reached an understanding with the pro-Iranian bloc to receive jobs in the new government that will be established.
The rumors apparently reached the cleric, and his associates were quick to deny it and claim that the new government will be solely responsible for his failures.
Either way, Iran is on its way to reclaiming the theater of Baghdad.
For years, Tehran interfered in Iraqi politics.
Last year's defeat threatened to curb her influence.
If al-Sudani manages to form a government, it will be a disturbing message to Lebanon.
There the Hezbollah camp lost the majority, but the political deadlock in the Land of the Cedars may end in the same way.
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