What will greatly affect the results of the elections are precisely the wrong choices of the politicians during the last four months, and even more so in the next two weeks of the last row.
"Just don't make dramatic mistakes now," say almost all parties.
According to the pollsters, there are about three "outside" mandates, those that the public voted for in the previous elections and now have not yet decided who to vote for.
It is true that these are mandates that are mostly in the same block, but even these can be the "penny to the pound" for one of the parties and overwhelm the political flounderer.
Ayelet Shaked, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
At the strategic level, Netanyahu made almost all the necessary moves to avoid losing votes in the bloc, including the inclusion of the Noam party and surplus agreements between all the parties.
But the question that will probably become clear only on election day is the relationship to Shaked.
In the past, Netanyahu obtained 61 mandates when in the bloc there was always another party that responded to the voices of the liberal right besides the ultra-Orthodox and parties of the symbolic Zionism, such as Lieberman or Kahlon.
He now has Shaked's Jewish home under the blocking percentage.
If Shaked does not resign and run to the end, Netanyahu may see his 61st mandate crash along with her.
On the other hand, Likud claims that the Jewish Home will not pass at any cost, so there is no interest in helping Shaked and that it is also burning more mandates for the left bloc that would go to Gantz.
The correct answer to this will only become clear at the ballot box - and then it will be too late for the right-wing bloc.
Another move by Netanyahu that may serve as a double-edged sword is the treatment of Ben Gavir.
The chairman of the Likud empowers Otzma Yehudit, gives it legitimacy and even coordinates with it media moves and work orders in various parts of the country. Many in the Likud and the right-wing bloc believe that if Netanyahu does not achieve 61, he will turn to Gantz under pressure from the ultra-Orthodox to offer him the first place in the rotation to form a government in which Gantz can To tell his voters that he "saved the country from Ben Gvir".
MK Ben Gabir. Will Smotrich agree to throw him into the opposition?, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
Common headache
If under the auspices of the Likud, Otzma Yehudit will be greater than the state ones, as we will now see in the polls, Netanyahu will discover that he orchestrated the move for himself.
In such a scenario, the question arises as to whether Smotrich will agree to throw Ben Gvir into the opposition while he will be a partner in the government led by Gantz without a high ability to change on right-wing issues.
As far as Smotrich is concerned, the mandate-drinking campaign from Netanyahu's direction can be less of a hindrance to him than previous times.
All the mandates that Netanyahu will take from place 13 to 8 will be three representatives of Ben Gvir, one of Noam and only one of Smotrich in place 12. Up to place 8 Smotrich will receive a ratio of 5 MKs against 3 of Ben Gvir with his sixth and seventh MK They are only if they bring 12 or 14 mandates respectively.
Will the surplus agreements decide?
The center-left bloc also did not pass over mistakes.
Alongside a well-oiled field campaign, it seems that precisely at the strategic level the prime minister has reason for concern.
After failing to identify the split in the joint venture that could cost him 80,000 votes in the Arab sector and low turnout, Lapid risks losing more votes to the bloc.
Finance Minister Lieberman.
Not intending to sign a surplus agreement with any party, photo: Dodi Vaaknin
This coming weekend (October 21) is the deadline for the parties to sign a surplus agreement between themselves.
In the previous elections, the agreement between Bennett and Saar gave the latter an additional mandate at the expense of Bennett from the necessity of that agreement, a mandate that if he had gone to the right apparently could have given Netanyahu a block of 60. In the previous elections, due to the enmity between them, Ra'am and the Joint List did not sign an agreement on surpluses between them. True As of this writing, the situation today is no different.
At the same time, Lieberman does not intend to sign an agreement with any party.
While in the Netanyahu bloc all the parties signed with each other, Beish Atid say they do not interfere in agreements between parties.
As the chairman of the bloc, Lapid may find out after the elections that the lack of leadership on the issue may cost him a mandate for Netanyahu and possibly even the loss of the seat.
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