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Ursula von der Leyen
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Pavel Golovkin / dpa
It is a renewed escalation in the dispute over the rule of law that has been smoldering for years: the EU Commission has announced that it will initially no longer pay out structural funding to Poland as long as the government in Warsaw does not meet certain conditions - including the reversal of the controversial judicial reform.
A lot is at stake for Poland: According to the Commission, almost all of the 75 billion euros that the country is to receive in structural aid from the current EU budget from 2021 to 2027 would be affected.
These so-called cohesion funds are intended to even out the differences between economically strong and weaker regions.
If this money does not flow, the damage for Poland would be enormous: 75 billion euros, calculated over seven years, make up around 1.6 percent of Poland's gross domestic product.
But there should be more money at stake - because the regulation passed in 2021 with the conditions for the payment of EU funds applies not only to the cohesion funds, but also to social, fisheries, asylum, migration and integration funds as well as the Pots for internal security, border management and visa policy.
In total, Poland is to receive around 120 billion euros in EU funds between 2021 and 2027, making Warsaw the largest recipient of funds from Brussels.
New quality in the rule of law conflict
The Commission is thus using its sharpest weapon to date in the dispute with Poland's national conservative government, which has brought public media into line in recent years, discriminated against sexual minorities and, above all, placed the judicial system under political control.
Because of the latter problem, the EU Commission has so far refused to pay the Corona reconstruction funds to Poland.
This is about a total of around 36 billion euros.
However, the withholding of large amounts of structural funding represents a new quality - because, unlike the one-time Corona reconstruction fund, they are part of the core of the EU brand.
Other tools to protect the EU's core values have received far more public attention, such as the ongoing criminal proceedings against Hungary and Poland under Article 7 of the EU Treaty and the new rule of law mechanism in the budget that has already been used against Hungary.
But the Article 7 proceedings, which could theoretically end with the withdrawal of voting rights in the EU, have come to nothing.
However, the rule of law mechanism is strictly limited to the misuse of EU funds.
With the new conditions for disbursing cohesion funds, however, the Commission can also punish violations of, for example, the rights of sexual minorities or freedom of the press - and does not need the approval of the Council of EU States for this, but can decide on its own.
In the case of Poland, the authority of President Ursula von der Leyen is in a particularly comfortable position.
According to the rules, a member country must submit a self-assessment for each structural funding program in Brussels as to whether it meets the award standards.
They include respect for the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights, which provides for a functioning judiciary, among other things.
A Commission spokesman said that Poland itself admitted in its declaration that it did not meet the conditions of the Charter of Fundamental Rights.
The authorities therefore have no choice but to refuse payments to Poland.
Commission takes a high risk
Specifically, it is about three structural funding programs submitted by Warsaw with a total volume of around 35 billion euros.
19 other programs are planned, but according to the Commission, the same conditions apply.
However, the same rules apply to everyone.
Of course, Poland could still issue the project and pay it itself, as the Commission spokesman said - only the current status is that the Commission cannot take on these bills as usual.
The Commission's actions are "clearly illegal," said Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro, one of the hardliners in the Polish government.
However, the latter itself admitted that it did not meet the criteria for the allocation of funds.
It will now hardly be able to claim the opposite without making substantial changes.
The renewed escalation is risky for both Warsaw and Brussels.
Observers warn that the withdrawal of funds could lead to the population becoming soldiers with the government led by Jarosław Kaczyński's PiS party - especially under the impression of the Ukraine war.
In Brussels, on the other hand, some hope that the lack of urgently needed billions, especially in rural areas, will cause anger at the PiS government and its ideological trench warfare with Brussels.
In the end, says an EU official, the government in Warsaw will be judged on "whether it can organize the money."