Today (18th) has just entered the 1,000th day since the first case of the novel coronavirus was confirmed in Hong Kong on January 23, 2020.
In the five waves of the epidemic, at least 45 strains of the virus hit Hong Kong, and it seems that the end of the epidemic has finally dawned until recently.
"Hong Kong 01" integrates the epidemic data in the past three years and the Hong Kong government's anti-epidemic measures, analyzes the trend of new coronary pneumonia and explores the road to normalcy in the future.
Taking into account the five waves of the epidemic, as of yesterday (17th), 10,278 patients had died.
Although the number of deaths in the fifth wave has risen sharply, the crude death rate has continued to decline. The death rate from the infection has dropped from 2.08% at the peak of the third wave to 0.56%.
The most serious fifth wave of the epidemic, the seven-day average mortality rate has dropped from a peak of 4.85% to a very low level of 0.137% recently. It has not rebounded due to the relaxation of social distancing measures and epidemic quarantine. The main difference is the population vaccinated in recent months. The number of people who have received three injections has increased significantly, and 80% of the population has received three injections.
Government expert advisor, Director of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Professor of the Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Hong Kong University, Hong Kong Fanyi believes that the third wave of confirmed cases among the elderly in residential care homes has led to a sharp rise in mortality rates, and with the start of the fifth wave, many people in Hong Kong have been vaccinated , the mortality rate has been significantly reduced than before.
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A total of 1.838 million confirmed cases, with a maximum of 77,000 cases in a single day
It has been thousands of days since the new crown pneumonia hit Hong Kong. According to the team of Associate Professor Xiao Jieheng of the Department of Medical Technology and Informatics of PolyU, they analyzed the genetic sequencing of several cases in Hong Kong and found that at least 45 virus strains have hit Hong Kong in the past three years, of which 25 are Omicron virus strains.
"Hong Kong 01" integrates the confirmed, hospitalized and death data of the epidemic from January 23, 2020 to yesterday. Due to the high spread of the fifth wave of Omicron's virus strain, the number of infected people is also five waves of the epidemic. At the peak, 76,991 people were infected in one day, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases was 1,830,578.
A total of 1,837,848 people were diagnosed in the five waves.
Medical system collapsed, patients hospital "sleeping with corpse" shocked
The increase in the number of infected people has greatly increased the medical burden in Hong Kong.
The medical system collapsed in February and March this year, and a large number of confirmed patients were forced to wait for admission in the open air in the cold world. There was even a human tragedy of patients "sleeping with corpses" in Queen Elizabeth Hospital.
The Hong Kong government has also changed the requirement that every confirmed case be sent to hospitals and community isolation facilities, so that most confirmed cases can fight the epidemic at home. % of confirmed patients require hospitalization.
▼In the ward of Yiyuan Hospital, a patient on the bed and a body bag on the ground were found ▼
▼On February 26, patients in the emergency room of Caritas Hospital waited under the tent▼
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80% of patients admitted to hospital are now suffering from complications from long-term illness
Kong Fanyi said that at present, only 20% of hospitalized patients have pneumonia, and the rest are complications caused by long-term illnesses, most of them are elderly people between 80 and 100 years old.
He believes that the relevant ratio is unlikely to drop any further. "Actually, many fewer people were admitted to the hospital. Our (Queen Mary Hospital) had 40 people in June, which is a lot less than the nearly 300 people we received before." Health announced that the new crown pneumonia pandemic is over, it is possible to treat the relevant patients as if they were infected with the respiratory virus.
At that time, only patients who are infected with the new crown and need a ventilator or high-purity oxygen will need to enter the isolation ward.
Government Expert Advisor Kong Fanyi
The proportion of severe cases has dropped to 21 in 20, and most of the newly imported cases are young people
As for the rate of confirmed severe cases, although the HA did not provide figures on the number of severe cases during the fifth wave of the epidemic, the relevant rate was not calculated.
Kong Fanyi said that with the increase in the vaccination rate in Hong Kong, 80% of Hong Kong people have received three doses of the vaccine so far. In addition, there are many people who have been infected with the virus. Under the mixed immunization, the sixth wave (that is, starting from June this year) The severe disease rate is significantly lower, "one in 20 people first", while the severe disease rate in the first to fifth waves is similar, "one in ten people is severely ill."
Recently, the proportion of imported cases in the total confirmed cases in a single day has increased from 0.01% at the end of February to 7.59%. When asked whether the recent relaxation of entry restrictions will increase the medical burden in Hong Kong, Kong Fanyi said that imported cases are usually young people with relatively healthy health. Therefore, there is no need to worry that imported cases will increase the medical burden on Hong Kong.
Government expert adviser Kong Fanyi believes that the death rate of the new crown in Hong Kong has always been lower than that of the world. Even in the first wave of the epidemic, the crude death rate was only over 1%, but the death rate of the virus in Europe and the United States has risen to about 5%.
(Photo by Xia Jialang)
The crude death rate in the third wave is up to 4 times higher than the total of the five waves
Although the number of infections in the fifth wave is 144 times that of the previous waves, and the death toll has also risen sharply, the highest crude death rate since the fifth wave is the third wave. In this wave, only 3,817 were infected but 100 were infected. On the contrary, although the number of deaths in the fifth wave is high, more than 10,065 people have died so far, but the crude death rate is only 0.55%, which is 80% lower than the third wave, that is, the third wave is higher than the fourth wave. 4 times.
The fifth wave of the epidemic can be divided into two stages. The first stage was from the end of December last year to May last year. The seven-day average death toll reached about 286 in mid-March, and the seven-day average death rate once rose to 4.85% during the peak period. The second stage is from June to the present, and the seven-day average death toll during the peak period is only 14, and the seven-day average death rate has dropped to 0.137% recently.
Kong Fanyi explains the reason for the high death rate in the third wave
Kong Fanyi explained that the death rate of the new crown in Hong Kong has always been lower than that of the world. Even in the first wave of the epidemic, the crude death rate was only over 1%, but the death rate of the virus in Europe and the United States has risen to about 5%.
He attributed this to Hong Kong's adoption of "early detection, early isolation, and early treatment" to allow confirmed patients to receive treatment as soon as possible.
He believes that the death rate of the third wave of the epidemic has risen sharply because most of the confirmed cases of the epidemic are elderly people in residential homes, and the lack of vaccination at that time caused the death rate to rise rapidly.
Although many elderly people were diagnosed in the fourth wave of the epidemic, most of the confirmed patients were relatively healthy elderly people, such as "singing and dancing groups" who would often move around, so the mortality rate was relatively low.
▼The first wave of confirmed patients▼
Kong Fanyi continued to point out that although the fifth wave of the epidemic has the same number of elderly people infected as the third wave of the epidemic, as many of them have been vaccinated, the death rate has not risen as in the third wave. In the sixth wave, the death rate dropped to 0.08% due to mixed immunity and more people being vaccinated, "lower than the flu."
Every new wave of outbreaks in the past was caused by imported cases in Hong Kong bringing new mutant virus strains into the community.
Recently, the Department of Health has frequently detected mutant virus strains, which seems to sound the alarm for the next wave of epidemics.
However, Kong Fanyi believes that Hong Kong still has a mixed immune barrier to withstand the next wave of the epidemic, so even if a new mutated virus strain becomes the mainstream, it will not increase the severe rate and death rate of the new crown.
Thousands of Anti-epidemic Days｜Kong Fanyi: The government missed the opportunity to relax the two epidemic prevention measures this summer and cannot be withdrawn for the time being. Compulsory testing from quarantine day to 5 days ︱ 68 buildings on the list, including Haiyi Garden, Haizhilian, Hilton Center, etc., an increase of 5,564 confirmed cases, accounting for 7%, a total of 65 cases of new mutant virus strains The village estate's sewage was positive, the government sent 160,000 quick tests