The U.S. midterm elections are approaching on November 8.
While the economy is an issue that most voters consider "very important," immigration remains a focal point, as important as gun policy.
Among Republican voters, immigration is the second-biggest issue after the economy.
The most high-profile American political drama of the year is also the southern border states, and even the Republican governors of Florida, which is not on the border, sending illegal immigrants truck by truck without warning. Protests in Democratic towns such as Washington, D.C. and New York City.
Recall that when Trump announced his candidacy for president in 2015, his main issue was border immigration.
One of his first news storms when he ran for the election was the portrayal of Mexican immigrants as criminals, drug offenders and rapists.
Controversies over immigration policy have been rife since then.
Why is the immigration issue still unresolved today, 7 years later?
The "propaganda" of immigration policy
The sensitivity and complexity of the immigration issue can be seen in a policy announcement by Biden before the midterm elections.
On October 12, the Biden administration launched a policy specifically targeting Venezuelan immigrants, copying its humanitarian plan for Ukrainian refugees, allowing Venezuelans with financial support from relatives and friends in the United States to apply directly to stay in the United States, and is expected to receive 24,000 people.
But at the same time, the Department of Homeland Security will expand its deportation plan for Venezuelans using the epidemic norms as a reason, and obtain Mexico's agreement to accept the deported immigrants, avoiding the US government's need to agree with Venezuelan Maduro, which it does not recognize at the moment. (Nicolas Maduro) The diplomatic difficulties of the government directly dealing with it.
The United States also added 65,000 new temporary non-agricultural visas, purportedly in exchange for Mexico.
The two sides of this new policy, one loose and one tight, are actually to meet Biden's different political needs.
On the one hand, Democratic progressives are extremely dissatisfied with Biden’s retention of many of Trump’s immigration policies. Relaxing immigration policies to gain some headlines can at least make progressive voters feel that Biden is doing something before the mid-term elections.
A refugee camp in the Mexican city of Tijuana on the U.S.-Mexico border.
Local refugees personally participated in the construction of the facility.
(AP)
On the other hand, strengthening the deportation of immigrants is to avoid this move being attacked by the right-wing media; more importantly, many Democrats running in border states are in urgent need of some strict immigration policies to help local voters. for publicity.
In fact, Biden, who stopped Trump's policy of building a border wall when he first took office, has quietly resumed some wall construction plans earlier, which has also become a Democratic senator running for re-election in the southern state of Arizona. An "achievement" of Mark Kelly's "successful persuasion" of Biden.
As for why Venezuelans are chosen, there are more economic and electoral considerations.
At a time when the Russian-Ukrainian war has caused high oil prices and Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries have cut production to align with Russia, Biden is considering easing sanctions on Venezuela so that the country can increase oil exports, and strengthening the deportation of Venezuelan immigrants is to a certain extent. assistance to the Maduro government; but from another perspective, the humanitarian visa policy for Venezuelans helps, as Latin voters in the key swing state Florida tend to support the U.S. government to help immigrants fleeing socialist regimes in Latin America. Democrats vie for these key voters.
From the above analysis, it can be seen that this almost trivial immigration policy actually has intricate and conflicting political considerations behind it.
If Trump and the Republicans have turned the immigration issue into their own political props, Biden actually also regards immigration as a prop, but everyone's "props" form is different.
A section of the Arizona border wall needs to be filled with containers.
(AP)
knot of incomprehension
During the campaign and at the beginning of his presidency, Biden, who once advocated for solving the immigration issue, has only been "wiping the ball", one of the main reasons is the divided stance of the American people on the immigration issue.
In terms of voter attention, although the Democratic Party has a small group of enthusiasts who care about immigration issues, on the whole, people don't really care about immigration issues.
Election importance of immigration among Democratic voters tends to be at the bottom of the polls tracked by pollster Morning Consult.
By contrast, the same survey showed that immigration has been the second-biggest issue for Republican voters this year.
This disparity in attention determines that Biden will not pay political costs for this issue that Democratic voters generally do not care about, and it also explains why the Republican Party continues to hype the illegal immigration crisis.
On the other hand, Democrats and Republicans have very different positions on how to address immigration.
Democrats overwhelmingly support the establishment of channels for illegal immigrants in the United States to stay legally, making it easy for people to immigrate to the United States on the grounds of family reunification, etc., while Republicans overwhelmingly support increasing the number of illegal immigrants already in the United States. deport.
The slogan of extreme Democrat liberals is to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE); the slogan of extreme Republicans is that border immigration is an "invasion" of the United States, and the National Guard will be used to stop it - in fact, since last year Texas has implemented such a policy, known as Operation Lone Star, since March.
The Texas National Guard & Texas Dept. of Public Safety are on the front lines of Biden's border crisis.
They continue working with federal & local partners to stop human smugglers, gangs, & drug cartels.
Thank you for protecting our state & nation.https https://t.co/7kXN7JFcAw
— Greg Abbott (@GregAbbott_TX) October 12, 2022
Under the bipartisan differences, Congress cannot pass any major immigration policy revisions, only minor fixes can be made by the president through executive orders (just like Trump's wall policy), and when the political party changes, the new president will take the previous one. policy retraction.
In this political environment, it is difficult to implement even the immigration policies that voters of both parties have agreed upon. For example, "naturalizing minors who have entered the United States illegally and then permanently resides in the United States" has been a bipartisan consensus since the Obama era, but it is not until today. Policy remains a castle in the air.
The immigration issue has become a thorny knot.
Biden's Sitting and Watching
The problem is that immigration is not a fake issue, but a real problem.
As of August, the number of immigration enforcement cases at the U.S. southern border reached 2.15 million this year, more than 400,000 more than last year and the highest number since 2000.
As the political, economic and public security environment in many Latin American countries continues to deteriorate, this number will remain at a high level even if it does not rise significantly.
In the face of the rapidly increasing border immigration, Biden has been using the new crown epidemic as an excuse to directly deport asylum-seeking refugees with the "Title 42" power left over from the Trump era.
Since this year, the Biden administration has attempted to revoke Title 42 due to pressure from liberals, but was eventually blocked by Republicans in court.
This helps Biden to a certain extent. If the Biden administration loses the power of Title 42 to directly drive out border immigrants, "refugee pressure" will become a bigger electoral issue.
Number of immigration enforcement cases at the U.S.-Mexico border over the past four years.
(CBP)
Even with the power of Title 42, Biden has released about 1.5 million people into the United States after taking office, pending the approval process of his immigration court.
Although studies have shown that in the past, most "released" immigrants will attend their immigration application hearings, rather than "crossing the river is a fairy", this expedient measure has been packaged by the Republican Party as "catch and release" ” (catch and release).
Regarding the objectively existing immigration issue, the Democrats and Republicans either hope that the issue will eventually be resolved by itself as an expedient measure, or turn it into a tool for political criticism.
For example, although the Republicans are talking about ending the "catch and release" policy, the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement only has more than 20,000 places to detain immigrants pending approval, and there is no way to not "catch and release".
In the face of migrants sent from the southern border to Republican states one by one, many major Democratic cities are also crying for help, but the Biden administration is indifferent, only exporting criticism but no practical assistance.
For example, since the beginning of this year, New York City has "sent" nearly 20,000 immigrants. The city cannot afford to resettle them, so they can only borrow hotels as refugees' accommodation. Moreover, asylum applicants cannot legally work within 180 days of arrival. The New York City government had to support illegal immigrants at its own expense.
New York Mayor Eric Adams (Eric Adams) has declared a state of emergency and asked the Federal Reserve government to step in to help, but Biden sat idly by.
In fact, at a time when the unemployment rate in the United States is extremely low and wages are driving up inflation, allowing more immigrants to enter the United States to work is a wise policy to suppress inflation and avoid a recession caused by the Federal Reserve raising interest rates too much.
A more decisive Democratic administration, cleverly linking labor shortages, inflation, and immigration policy, would be the way to go for immigration reform.
Turning a blind eye to this way out is the core of Biden's failed immigration policy at this moment, and it has also made this issue seized by the Republicans' propaganda operation for a long time, and the Democrats are often passive.
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