Putin declares martial law: Russia expert sees a massive weakness in the new "move"
Created: 10/20/2022, 7:28 p.m
By: Maximilian Kettenbach
From now on, martial law applies in the Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine.
Putin continues to heat up the war and yet doesn't think about everything, as a Kremlin expert at IPPEN.MEDIA explains.
Moscow/Innsbruck – Russia's war president Vladimir Putin has triggered the next level of escalation after the bombings had spread to all of Ukraine: the Kremlin chief imposed martial law on the Russian "annexed" areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Cherson and Zaporizhia in Ukraine.
It has been in effect since Thursday (October 20).
At the televised meeting of Russia's Security Council on Wednesday, Putin justified the move by saying that Kyiv refused to recognize the results of the four regions' votes on joining Russia held in September.
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Russia expert: "Putin reacts from a position of weakness"
Is it sheer desperation, or is there a calculation behind it?
Gerhard Mangott, Professor of International Relations at the University of Innsbruck, says he has good contacts in the Moscow power apparatus.
He told the
Munich newspaper IPPEN.MEDIA
that he saw the renewed escalation more as an "expression of Russia's military defensive position due to the Ukrainian successes at the front".
It is very clear: "Putin is reacting from a position of weakness."
According to the Russian human rights lawyer Pavel Chikov, the proclamation of martial law in the Ukraine war has the following consequences for the "annexed" regions:
curfew and military censorship
Set up checkpoints and restrict movement
Arrests of up to 30 days
confiscation of property
Restrictions on the work of political parties and the right of assembly
Forced labor in armaments factories
internment of foreigners
Travel restrictions for Russian citizens abroad
Gerhard Mangott, Professor of International Relations at the University of Innsbruck.
The Russia expert talks about Putin's plan in the occupied territories.
© Private
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Putin's martial law move - and the problem for Russia
The possibility of forced conscription of men who feel they belong to Ukraine, which is linked to martial law, is likely to be particularly important for Russia.
What is already being practiced in the occupied regions of Luhansk and Donetsk should soon become reality in Zaporizhia and Cherson.
Because Russia's army has an immense personnel problem in the escalating Ukraine conflict.
Many soldiers died in the fighting, many were wounded, and the front is too long to hold effectively.
Mangott is not the only one who fears “mass forced recruitment”.
However, he also sees a major problem for Russia: “It is difficult to predict whether Ukrainians will really shoot at Ukrainians.
The motivation of these people will show how sensible Putin's move was.”
Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, in the video conference at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence.
Here, Putin announced a state of war in four recently annexed Ukrainian territories.
© Sergei Ilyin
What almost gets lost: Putin's step not only affects the "annexed" regions (stage one), but also includes a three-stage plan that has massive consequences for Russia as a whole.
In particular, it is probably about safeguarding public order, i.e. about the increased protection of traffic and communication routes and energy systems.
“In the Russian regions on the border with Ukraine, such as Bryansk or Belgorod, martial law is light.
Not formally, of course.
But here the regional governments are given extended powers, for example to force companies into the war economy or to tap telephone calls," explains Mangott.
This is stage two.
Putin's third step applies to the rest of his country: "The individual regional governments can resort to restrictive censorship or bans on assemblies."
Putin's general makes a 180-degree turn - Surovikin speaks of weaknesses at the front
But this is not the only change for the citizens of Russia.
After widespread criticism from the public and parliament, Putin's new army general, Sergei Surovikin, publicly admitted weaknesses at the front.
A 180-degree turnaround by the Kremlin, which, according to expert Mangott, "has given in to pressure and enlightened people about the true situation" - but is also relieving pressure and forestalling further internal unrest.
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According to Ukraine's official assessment, the declared state of war does not change the current war situation.
Kyiv still wants to continue the reconquest of the occupied territories, said on Wednesday afternoon the adviser to the Ukrainian presidential office, Mykhailo Podoliak.
He spoke of a "pseudo-legitimization of the looting of Ukrainian property".
Ukraine is currently on the verge of retaking at least part of Cherson.
"If the west bank of the Dnieper River were returned to the Ukrainians, it would be a heavy symbolic-political blow for Russia," Mangott said.
How Putin will then react is unclear.
But probably with new attacks - and with further rocket fire at the country in the hope of breaking Ukrainian morale.