"Dirty bomb" and dam blast: Russia raises allegations against Ukraine - what's behind it?

Created: 10/23/2022, 7:17 p.m

By: Florian Naumann

Vladimir Putin and Sergei Shoigu (left) during a visit to troops in Ryazan in mid-October.

© IMAGO/Russian President Press Office

A "dirty bomb", a planned dam blow-up: Vladimir Putin's Russia raises horrific allegations against Ukraine.

Is there a plan behind it?

Moscow/Kyiv – Winter is approaching, Ukraine is continuing a counter-offensive, personnel changes in Russia point to political unrest: the situation in the Ukraine war is becoming increasingly unmanageable.

On Sunday, Moscow also spoke of an imminent “uncontrolled escalation”.

Concrete allegations of allegedly threatening nefarious acts against Kiev are increasing.

From the devastating blowing up of a dam to the use of radioactive "dirty bombs".

Politicians around the world could soon find themselves forced to make difficult assessments: Who is the originator of a possible escalation - if it actually happens?

Reliable information from the war zone has been scarce ever since the Russian invasion began.

In complete contrast to Russian warnings of serious breaches of the rules by its opponents.

If the worst comes to the worst, the only point of reference could be patterns of action in earlier conflicts.

They could rather speak against Russia.

Putin's Russia in the Ukraine war: What is behind Shoigu's new allegations?

The Russian war of aggression has been bloody and brutal for months: from alleged massacres in Bucha and Irpin to rumored attacks on health facilities such as in Mariupol to more or less clearly documented attacks on residential buildings and other structures used by civilians such as train stations.

The situation at Europe's largest nuclear power plant in Zaporizhia has also long been a source of concern: Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of shelling the sensitive nuclear facility.

But in the meantime, allegations and warnings from the Kremlin are becoming more acute - just at a time when Russia is under military pressure and public criticism of Vladimir Putin is increasing.

There are currently two accusations that are fueling concern:

"Dirty bomb":

According to his department, Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed in a telephone call with his French counterpart that Kiev was planning to detonate a radioactive "dirty" bomb to discredit Moscow.

According to the Ministry of Defence, the situation in Ukraine is increasingly heading towards an "uncontrolled escalation".

Russia's state news agency Ria Novosti reported that Kyiv has virtually completed the completion of a small tactical nuclear bomb -- and is ready to detonate it on its own soil "to launch a strong anti-Russian campaign designed to undermine trust in Moscow."

Conventional explosive devices that also scatter radioactive material are referred to as "dirty bombs".

For its part, Ukraine, which gave up its nuclear weapons after the collapse of the Soviet Union, accuses Russia of planning to drop such a bomb.

Dam near Cherson:

The strategically important city of Cherson has recently come into focus: the Ukrainian army is apparently working on recapturing it.

At the same time, Russia has apparently started evacuating the city.

An official reason given by the Russian occupiers for this: the Ukrainian army is planning to blow up the Dnipro dam at Nowa Kakhovka.

In this scenario, large settlement areas would be flooded, including parts of Cherson.

The Ukraine also sees the danger of a dam blast and catastrophic consequences – albeit under completely different circumstances.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned against a "false flag action" by Russia.

In other words: the occupiers wanted to blow up the dam themselves, blame the Ukraine and thereby discredit the country.

There is information that Russian "terrorists" have mined the dam and the associated power plant, he said on Thursday at a switch to the EU summit.

Zelenskyj also warns of dire consequences for the water supply;

specifically also for the cooling water supply of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant.

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What is actually going on in either case cannot be determined with certainty by foreign observers.

Selenskyj knows that too - according to the

, he called for international observers to be sent.

One thing is clear: the victims of both possible "escalations" would be the people in Ukraine, possibly also in large parts of Europe.

Last but not least, it remains to be seen whether one of the two catastrophes will occur at all.

Russia keeps making shocking allegations.

Vladimir Putin recently claimed, among other things, that the USA was conducting “human experiments” in Ukraine.

However, there was never any more detailed information or concrete reports.

At the moment there are only indications, expert assessments or recourse to earlier events to assess the situation and a possible question of guilt.

A cursory overview:

Ukraine war before "uncontrolled escalation": What is known about Russia's allegations?

A dam blast near Cherson - experts see interest above all in Russia

: Should the dam near Nowa Kachowka actually be blown up, security researcher Christian Mölling sees evidence of Russian authorship: Ukraine would have "if they wanted to blow up the dam, they would have done so in the last six months at any time,” said the research director of the German Society for Foreign Relations (DGAP) in a contribution for ZDF.

At the same time, it is unlikely that Kyiv would accept the destruction on its own territory - while Russia could use the event to cover an already indicated withdrawal.

The US Institute for the Study of War also pointed out the latter point.

Already on Wednesday, the experts wrote in an analysis that Russia had "demonstrably learned" from the outrage over the withdrawal from the Kharkiv region and is now preparing justifications for a further withdrawal.

A dam breach would "overshadow" a military flight - and provide new fodder for the thesis that Ukraine is a "terrorist state".

At the same time, Moscow could bring its own personnel from the area in the course of an evacuation, arrange for further deportations of Ukrainian citizens to Russia and make further advances by Ukrainian troops more difficult.

The well-regarded Twitter account "GeoConfirmed", a cooperation partner of the investigative platform Bellingcat, also saw no evidence of Ukrainian interest in blowing up the dam based on satellite images.

On the contrary: the Ukrainian military has been attacking the roads leading over the dam for months.

These are an important supply route for Russian troops.

However, the Ukraine always spared the locks of the dam - and thus ultimately accepted military problems out of consideration for the population.

The authors' verdict: blasting a dam is a "defensive action" against an advancing enemy, but Ukraine "is on the offensive and must be able to cross the Dnipro."

The necessary humanitarian aid for flood victims would also slow down the counter-offensive.

It is therefore "unlikely" that Kyiv wants to blow up the dam.

"Radioactive" bomb - many allegations and a look at Syria:

Moscow's allegations of a "dirty bomb" also appear threatening.

The news agency Ria Novosti even reported, citing unnamed sources, that Kyiv is in talks with the United Kingdom about the transfer of "nuclear weapons components".

Under the leadership of "western curators" the construction of one is already "in the final phase".

The state agency also gave details: Among other things, the Kiev Institute for Nuclear Research was involved.

Even such accusations cannot be checked with certainty from abroad.

The Ukrainian government immediately denied it, as did British Foreign Secretary Ben Wallace: Such "lies" are "as dangerous as they are absurd," Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted.

Ukraine is a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and does not have "dirty bombs" nor does it intend to obtain them.

"Secondly, Russians often blame others for what they plan to do," he added.

The thesis of a Russian plan for a radioactively contaminated bomb cannot be verified either.

However, Kuleba alluded to a well-known accusation made against Moscow.

At the beginning of the war, the Kremlin claimed that the United States was researching biological weapons in Ukraine.

The US government then warned of a possible

use of chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine.

Apparently this has not happened so far.

Another point of reference that has not been finally clarified is the war in Syria: In 2019, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons ruled that chlorine gas had been used in the city of Duma in April 2018.

Russia and the Syrian regime it supports have accused the West and Syrian rebels of a "false flag" operation.

's investigative journalists

However, as early as 2018, there were indications that corresponding chlorine gas containers had been dropped from Syrian military helicopters.

“Dirty bomb”: Russia accuses Ukraine – US expert finds Shoigu statement “disturbing”

Many questions about Schoigu's statements remain unanswered.

But Russia's credibility has been strained.

In any case, the well-known defense expert Dara Massicot from the RAND Corporation, a US think tank, warned on Sunday.

"This reads like Russian groundwork on False-Flag," she tweeted.

"It's worrying that this is happening at defense minister level." Canadian ambassador to the UN, Bob Rae, emphasized that Russia was the only country that was using "dirty bombs" in the Ukraine war, at least in a figurative sense - Putin and Shoigu were deliberately taking civilians, Energy infrastructure or heat supply in sight: "Why should any clear-thinking person believe them?"

It is clear that the speech comes at a time when Russia is sending conflicting signals about its own use of nuclear weapons: Putin has repeatedly threatened that the annexed areas will be defended "by all means".

Lower-ranking diplomats denied the threat of a Russian nuclear strike.

Western experts meanwhile said that Putin would refrain from striking because it would delegitimize the Russian Federation internationally.

A supposed "escalation" on the Ukrainian side could - one way or another - create a new starting point for the use of drastic measures according to the Russian interpretation.

Florian Naumann (with material from AFP)